PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   8 - 12 - 5 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5

This state-bred maiden claimer is a trip handicapper’s dream, as 8 of the 9 runners are all coming out of the same race on April 22. October Bliss (#2) achieved the best result of anyone running back here, finishing second, but he got a pretty good trip stalking in the two-path before taking over in the stretch. He’s logical, but others appear to have more upside. I think the one to beat is that race’s third-place finisher Maythisbetheone (#8). He was wide around both turns, going 3-wide on the first turn and then pushed 4-wide on the far turn before spinning out further into the stretch. Despite losing so much ground he still finished strongly. This 4-year-old feels like one with more ability than his overall record suggests, and I think he’ll be tough to beat if he can work out a smoother journey this time. My top pick is another trip horse from that race who didn’t run as well. Aula (#3) took money to go off at 5-1, but raced far too aggressively with blinkers added. He was very keen heading to the first turn and fought his rider for a few furlongs before ultimately settling into a wide trip. He had nothing when asked for run in the lane, but his eventful journey prior to that probably cost him some energy. That was also his first start off a layoff and he may be set for better with that race under his belt. He takes the blinkers off this time, and figures to be a square price.

Fair Value:
#3 AULA, at 8-1 or greater
#8 MAYTHISBETHEONE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6

The Charlton Baker entry of Trash Talker (#1) and Flamingo Hawk (#1A) is sure to attract support, but I’m not thrilled with either one, especially joined together as favorites. Flamingo Hawk has plenty of back class, and is moving up off the claim, which might be a good sign. However, his form had really tailed off for prior connections, and it’s not like this is a significant trainer upgrade. Trash Talker got the job done last time when he was able to shake loose on the front end, but that was going out for Rob Atras. It’s not clear that he can maintain his form off the layoff, and he has to deal with some other speed this time. Rob Atras’s runner Twenty Four Mamba (#6) might be one of the main rivals for this entry, as the horse is getting significant class relief after trying tougher going a mile last time. Yet I’m more interested in two others. My top pick is Risk Profile (#5). This horse was beaten by Trash Talker in his most recent start, but I thought he ran the better race that day. Breaking from the inside, he was always close to the rail on a day when the inside path was generally a disadvantage. I thought he ran on gamely late, taking a noticeable step forward off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Now he adds blinkers and switches to Jaime Torres, so I won’t be surprised to see him get more engaged early. I would also use the shipper Bring Me a Check (#8). He figures to get somewhat ignored here for Parx-based connections, but he’s run plenty of races that put him in the mix, and his most recent effort getting back on the dirt should translate well against this field. Trainer Michael Moore has often struggled on this circuit, but he’s in the midst of a strong season so far.

Fair Value:
#5 RISK PROFILE, at 3-1 or greater
#8 BRING ME A CHECK, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

There is quite a bit of pace signed on in this allowance affair. Excellent Timing (#6), Ikigai (#7), and Rotknee (#8) all seemingly need to be on the lead to have their best chances, and they can’t all vie for the front end without giving away some of their ability to finish. Among those three, Ikigai is shown just slightly behind on the Pace Projector, but he’s the one that might have the best chance to break clear of the field. He is so fast out of the gate, consistently leading after the first couple of jumps, and that could give him an edge here. I do have some doubts about his overall quality, but he could be a factor until very late in the race if he takes the starch out of those chasing him. The good news is that there are some closers to consider. The most logical of those is Who Hoo Thats Me (#9), who will step up to this level for the first time after clearing his New York-bred conditions. He consistently runs well, though he’s not the most reliable win candidate, even when he gets favorable pace setups. I do wonder if he’s best going slightly farther than this, and he just seems a little obvious for my liking. If I’m going to take a closer, I’d rather go for a price. Watasha (#2) owns the highest Late Pace Rating of anyone in this field (LP flag on the Pace Projector) even though he hasn’t been particularly competitive in his last few starts. Yet I think he’s had some significant excuses for those results. He was compromised by a slow pace going a mile in December when he actually did well to get up for third. Something seemed to go wrong in January, and he subsequently got time off. His return might look like more of the same on paper, but he didn’t get a good ride that day. He was shuffled back early, held up on the turn, and then only allowed to run on belatedly. He's clearly better than that and may work a better trip this time if the pace spreads this field out.

Fair Value:
#2 WATASHA, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

Buckortwo (#7) makes sense on the drop in class, since his best turf efforts at the maiden special weight level are simply stronger than the grass performances by anyone else in this field. Yet he does have some questions as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He appeared to be going off form in 2022, and that season was cut short during the summer. Michelle Nevin has mediocre numbers off layoffs like this, so I wanted to explore some other options. There are a few first time starters with pedigree. The most appealing of those might be The Mighty Don (#5), a homebred by 8% debut sire Freud, who wins with 12% of his turf sprint starters. The dam won 5 times on the turf and was proficient going both short and long. Tom Morley doesn’t have the greatest stats with firsters, especially in turf sprints, but some of the workouts look decent for the level. I could also use first time turfer Strategyforyou (#12), who has plenty of grass pedigree. Midshipman is a good turf influence, and the dam was a 3-time turf winner. My top pick is Tie Breaker (#8). This gelding got on turf for the first time in April at the maiden special weight level. He may have just been a little overmatched, as he seemed to stride well over the surface, but just couldn’t produce the necessary finishing speed to be competitive after sustaining a wide trip. That race has also proven to be stronger than the speed figure indicates, as the winner and a few behind him have all come back to improve. Tie Breaker stayed in an off the turf affair last time, but now gets back on grass with appropriate class relief. Jose Ortiz climbing aboard may attract more support than he otherwise would have garnered, but he still should be a decent price.

Fair Value:
#8 TIE BREAKER, at 3-1 or greater