PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 7 - 12
Race 5:   11 - 8 - 10 - 7
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 6 - 12 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: MARTINI’S AMICA (#1)

#6 Requestforproposal figures to go off at a pretty short price as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. While she wasn’t facing the toughest maiden fields at Tampa this winter, this still is an easier sport given the overall lack of compelling turf form among most of her rivals. She’s lacked some finish in her races, but she was perhaps too close to a fast pace that fell apart last time. Chad Brown is 12 for 38 (32%, $1.80 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns in turf routes at NYRA over 5 years. I only see one horse that can potentially beat her, and that’s #1 Martini’s Amica. She showed a real affinity for turf when she first tried it last November at Aqueduct, rallying well to get up for fourth in a pretty salty maiden field at odds of 76-1. She obviously didn’t run as well in her only other turf try in December, but that’s a replay worth watching. She was shuffled back early and then got completely sawed off in traffic in upper stretch, bouncing off the rail before she was eased to the wire. That’s not a true indication of her ability. She hasn’t run particularly well on dirt as of late, but she’s finally getting back on her preferred surface here and should be a decent price.

WIN: #1 Martini's Amica, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: AMEDEUS MUSIC (#5)

I’m not particularly fond of the horses exiting the April 23 race at this level from Aqueduct. #12 Exalted Charm did show some turf ability that day, but it was a weak field overall and he got a very good trip setting a moderate pace while saving all the ground. I think a comebacker like #7 Sidd Finch is more interesting, though he has to rebound off a poor effort to conclude his 2021 campaign. Ultimately, I’m more interested in some of the 3-year-olds in this field. #2 Achilles Heel didn’t earn much of a speed figure in his lone prior turf try, but that came when he was a much younger horse. He’s since improved racing on dirt for Brad Cox, but I don’t see any reason why he can’t transfer that form back to grass. My top pick at a bigger price is #5 Amedeus Music. This horse was obviously no match for a field of New York-breds when he tried turf last time, but I think that was a much tougher spot than this one. He also lost position right at the start when he was steadied coming out of the chute. The pace was moderate so I don’t want to be too hard on him for failing to make up any ground. I think he has some turf inclination and want to give him one more chance on this surface as he drops into an easier spot.

WIN: #5 Amedeus Music, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 2,7

RACE 7: WAILIN JOSIE (#1)

This race will unfortunately scratch down to at most four runners as #2 Chasing Cara and #3 Pretty Clever are participating in an off-the-turf event on Thursday. That obviously removes some wagering appeal, but I’m still somewhat interesting in this affair since I can make a case for the horse who may be the longest shot on the board. #1 Wailing Josiedidn’t finish that far behind the likely favorite going a mile last time at Aqueduct. She never saved any ground, going 4-wide on the turn before battling on through the lane. That wasn’t the first time she had a tough trip this winter, as she was compromised by traffic in a large field two back. And prior to that she had caught some tough spots at this level. This race clearly hasn’t come up particularly tough for the level. I also like the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs, and she figures to be a square price for connections that rarely take money. I’m not way against likely favorite #6 Khali Magic, but she had her chances to win at this level when going favored at Aqueduct in each of her last two starts. She seemed to improve with the added distance in those races, though she’s handled sprints in the past. Among the favorites, I was actually more afraid of #5 Bank On Anna, a 3-year-old stepping up to face older horses. She ran well to win two back after stumbling badly at the start. I wish she had finished with a bit more energy last time in that stakes since the favorite failed to show up and the winner came in with inferior form. That said, she has upside and merits a look in this depleted field. I just preferred the bigger price.

WIN: #1 Wailin Josie, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8: RUSE (#7)

This is some clever placement by Chad Brown with #8 Graded On a Curve. The horse is eligible to race for an allowance condition he’s already conquered twice without being risked for the tag because of the claiming waiver rule (he last raced for this same tag over 6 months ago). He only made two appearances in 2021, but both were solid efforts. It was asking a lot of him to try the West Point off the layoff last summer, and he was hardly disgraced. He wasn’t as brilliant as one might have liked when he won at this level at 4-5 in November, but he got the job done. He isn’t facing the toughest field here and just looks like a logical sort for a barn that excels off layoffs. My top pick is #7 Ruse. This gelding was a progressive sort as a 3-year-old, improving with each start. He followed up his pace-aided maiden victory with a surprising 9-1 upset over N1X foes in September at Saratoga. He was off for a while after that, but he got a prep in at Gulfstream and ran a lot better than one might have expected. He’s hardly a 5-furlong sprinter, but he nevertheless closed gamely through the lane to get up for second at 20-1. This guy seems as likely as any to take a step forward, and I view him as the primary upset candidate if Graded On a Curve has an off day. At a bigger price I would also use #6 Jade’s Dream, primarily in exotics. He’s more of a turf horse, but shows some improved dirt form recently and can improve switching back to this surface.

WIN: #7 Ruse, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6,8

RACE 9: LUCKY MUCHO MAN (#7)

The 4-year-olds in this field own some faster speed figures than their younger rivals, but I wasn’t thrilled with the two who figures to take the most money. #4 Pivotal Run and #12 Bless Bless met in a race at this level last November and neither was a serious factor. The former did have traffic trouble in the lane, but he’s always going to need some luck with his trips as a deep closer. Bless Bless made up ground late after dropping too far back in the early going, but I thought he was somewhat fortunate when second at a big price in his prior turf start last fall. They’re obvious contenders, but I was most interested in a couple of the 3-year-olds in this lineup. My top pick is #7 Lucky Mucho Man. I had tabbed this horse as one that should move up on turf last time given his pedigree and the fact that he moved like a turf horse in his dirt races. He certainly proved his affinity for turf in that spot, but he was unable to do more than pick up pieces given his poor early position. Jose Lezcano just made no real effort to get him forward that day and he just dropped so far back in a race that was dominated towards the front end. He put in a strong final three-eighths despite going wide on the far turn. Belmont Park should suit him better, and I think there’s more ability here than he displayed last time. The other horse that I’d want to use prominently is #6 Drums of War. He got a strange ride and trip in his debut last year, but fared better in his second start at Aqueduct. He was wide around both turns that day but never totally gave up. He should appreciate the drop in class and he gets a positive rider switch to Manny Franco in his return from the layoff.

WIN: #7 Lucky Mucho Man, at 4-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #6 Drums of War, at 8-1 or greater