PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 4 - 1A
Race 2:   10 - 6 - 11 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 7 - 10
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   2 - 9 - 1A - 2B - 6
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 7 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 4: MORE LIKE IT (#1)
Bourbon Currency is obviously the horse to beat as he takes another crack at a starter allowance level after running well past attempts for this condition. He owns a set of speed figures that makes him a deserving favorite, and he comes into this off a brief freshening showing strong form prior to the break. The biggest issue with this horse is his propensity to collect minor awards. He’s finished in the exacta in 12 of 23 turf starts, but nine of those were second-place finishes. Both prior victories against winners have come for a tag, so he has to prove that he’s willing to fight for it at this level. I’m hardly against him, but I do think there’s an interesting alternative at a much better price. More Like It returns from a layoff and turns back in distance for trainer Bruce Brown. This gelding subtly improved in the latter half of 2020, putting in a series of strong efforts against winners at Belmont and Aqueduct in the fall. He was unlucky to just miss against claimers in October and later ran an excellent race to be a strong third at 51-1 against New York-bred allowance foes in November. Those efforts all came over route distances, but he showed that he was a proficient sprinter earlier in his career. I think he’s landed in a good spot off the layoff and he figures to get some pace to close into with speeds like Brazillionaire and Montauk Daddy signed on.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,7,10
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 6,7,10

RACE 7: RAFFINITY (#3)
It’s hard to know how the public will approach this perplexing maiden affair. I suppose horses like Voice of Spring and Highway Queen could attract some attention, but neither one interests me that much. The former will get her preferred fast track, but she never really panned out after a promising debut. While she finished second at this level last time, that was a relatively weak maiden event and I think she'd have to do better to beat this field. The other potential favorite Highway Queen has many questions to answer as she returns from a 10-month layoff, and it's unclear if more distance is what she wants. I prefer the runners drawn to the inside. A Bit o’Irish Sass has taken subtle steps forward with each start. She ran deceptively well in both starts as a two-year-old. She returned from the layoff last month with a solid effort, closing mildly for third going 6 furlongs. Now she stretches out for the first time, which should suit her. Her dam was a multiple route winner on synthetic, and this filly has the size to suggest a mile should be no problem. My top pick is Raffinity. This filly didn’t show much in her debut last summer, but woke up on the class drop when she made her 3-year-old debut last month, finishing a strong second in an unusually fast $40k maiden claimer. Now she’s moving back in class, but she earned a competitive 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure in that last start. She is also bred to appreciate more ground as a daughter of 20% dirt route sire Tonalist from a dam who has produced stakes-placed dirt router Bourbon Empire and 6-time dirt route winner Lutheran Miss. I would also expect this gal to be more forwardly placed on the stretch-out.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,5,6,8