by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 6 - 1A
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 9: 2 - 11 - 12 - 5
RACE 3: SILVERWAVE (#6)
As usual, Chad Brown has this field over a barrel. Kurilov might be favored after putting in a fantastic effort in his turf debut against Grade 1 company back in February. He couldn’t quite get to loose-on-the-lead winner Heart to Heart that day but held off the talented Hi Happy for third. I can excuse his last effort due to the turf condition and his being glued to a dead rail throughout. However, I prefer Silverwave, who seems likely to take a step forward here. Brown has been candid about this runner having been a little short when he made his U.S. debut in the Fort Marcy last time. He was no match for his talented stablemate Robert Bruce, who will be a top contender in the Manhattan next month, but he actually ran well to lose by only two lengths. Silverwave was chasing three wide throughout and never stopped running in the lane. Furthermore, the stretch-out to 10 furlongs figures to really help since this runner wanted every part of 1 1/2 miles in France. This race seems like another stepping-stone to bigger goals later in the season, but I expect this horse to start showing his class.
Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,4,5 with 2
RACE 5: VENTRY BAY (#5)
Fact Check figures to go favored here after winning his return at Belmont last month. That win came against weaker company, but I feel that it’s significant that they withheld his claiming tag off the long layoff. Now he’s running in a true protected spot, and Jason Servis has great numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 9 for 26 (35 percent, $2.20 ROI) second off a layoff with last-out winners in turf sprints. I think this horse is very dangerous, but there are some other ways to go here. Ventry Bay is not the type of horse I would usually go for in this situation. However, it would be foolish to disregard any Wesley Ward horse right now given how well his starters are performing. He’s been especially dangerous second off a layoff with sprinters this spring. Over the past 90 days, he is 10 for 14 (71 percent, $5.78 ROI) with those runners, including a 2-for-2 record in turf sprints. Ventry Bay may not have appreciated some give in the turf course last time as a son of Scat Daddy, and he ran races last season that make him a top contender.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 8: BELLEVILLE SPRING (#1)
I found this race to be problematic because I’m not enamored with any of the short prices. I suppose Shiraz is the deserving favorite off his solid return at this level last time. However, he’s been stuck at this level for a while, and I don’t think we’re going to see any major improvement out of him. Looking Ready appears to be the logical alternative since he actually did run some encouraging races on turf last season. He held on well against open company in both the Awad and the Pilgrim despite racing distances that may be too far for him. He started once on dirt in January, and that effort was extremely disappointing. Despite having decent prior dirt form, he didn’t show any of his typical speed that day and quickly found himself at the back of the pack. Furthermore, Bruce Levine has terrible numbers with horses switching from dirt to turf. He’s dangerous, but I cannot endorse him at a short price. Some may look to Forward Motion as the best alternative, but he was allowed to set a very slow pace in his maiden win last time, and horses have not come back out of that race to run particularly well. Therefore, I want to take a shot with Belleville Spring. This gelding has shown some ability on dirt, and he actually has some sneaky turf pedigree. His dam won her only start on turf, in a sprint. Trinniberg never made a start on turf, and his progeny have yet to accumulate much of a turf record. However, I’m open to the idea that Trinniberg could get grass horses since he is a half-brother to two fillies who strongly preferred turf. Belleville Spring may be faster than Looking Ready and Forward Motion in the early going, so he may be able to control the pace.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,8,9
RACE 9: ARGONNE (#2)
I have no major issues with Frontier Market, who has run the fastest races and does appear to be due for a maiden victory. He simply ran better than the others coming out of the Apr. 28 race, so it’s hard to envision them turning the tables. If anyone is going to take down Frontier Market, it figures to be one of the new faces. The one that really interests me is Argonne, who makes his first start on turf. This colt made a single start at Gulfstream back in February. He passed half the field behind an 11-length runaway winner, but never seriously threatened. He’s been given plenty of time to prepare for his turf debut since then and appears to be working forwardly in recent weeks. He displayed a turf action when working a 21 1/5 second quarter mile at the OBS sale last year, and he’s certainly bred to handle this surface as a son of Tizway. I get the feeling that this one may have ability, but he’s going to need to step forward in a big way to defeat Frontier Market.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,11