PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   1A/1 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 8 - 10 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Tass (#1) is clearly the class of this field. Some may be alarmed by the class drop, but she when at the $40k claiming level the last time she dropped in for a tag on this circuit. She’s now a 7-year-old who isn’t really competitive at the allowance levels for which she’s eligible, so this is a logical spot. Carlos Martin doesn’t have the best numbers off layoffs, but this mare has run well fresh before. She makes sense, but I think others may offer better value. Among the likely favorites, I prefer Lucky Peridot (#5). This mare’s last effort, where she finished second to the talented Sanura, would make her the one to beat if she could repeat it. However, that performance came on synth. While she has run some of her best races on that surface, she’s run well on turf plenty of times. She was actually going to win her turf start in February, but she got stymied in a pocket for the final quarter mile. They’re both logical, but my top pick is Strong Odor (#3). This turf sprinter will attempt to stretch out to a route for the first time since 2021. In that prior turf route, she was second in a two-turn 7 1/2-furlong event at Indy, producing a strong finish in the stretch after getting held up early. It’s a little odd that she hasn’t gone long ever since then, though she has had success sprinting. The drop in class is understandable, since she hasn’t won recently. Yet she ran better than it might appear in that return to grass last time, where she got a conservative ride, appearing to finish with something left in the tank. Mike Maker is 12 for 71 (17%, $2.39 ROI) going from sprints to turf routes at NYRA over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#3 STRONG ODOR, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

Mauritius (#3) really took to turf last time despite not possessing an abundance of turf pedigree. He didn’t break that sharply, which prevented him from showing his typical early speed. Yet he always traveled in the bridle and finished up with good energy through the lane. That was an unusually strong field for the level, and runner-up Splendid Summer came back to win impressively here recently. This one-turn mile on grass should suit him even better, and he has the early zip to lead this field early if he breaks cleanly. Yet he’s moving up in class and there are some class droppers to consider, including Paratus (#4) and Penner Ash (#7). Both are looking to get back on track after lackluster returns in Florida. I’m willing to be a little more forgiving of Paratus, who faced some very tough fields in his two allowance attempts over the winter. His plodding running style is a minor concern, but the drop in class could do wonders for a horse who showed some talent as a 2-year-old. However, I want to go in a different direction in my search for value. General’s Duty (#8) had to drop in against maiden claimers to get his first victory last year, but he did have a few trips. He was particularly compromised on June 25 when he was steadied at a couple points, and then on Sep. 25 when he was extremely rank in the early stages of that race before finishing well. This deep closer actually travels in the bridle and could be more forward with Trevor McCarthy off the layoff. I usually despite progeny of Union Rags on the turf, but this gelding comes from a strong female turf pedigree tracing to second dam Bit of Whimsy. I find it notable that he’s placed ambitiously in his return for Jane Cibelli, who did win with a turf horse moving up in class already at this meet.

Fair Value:
#8 GENERAL'S DUTY, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

The scratch of Bronx Bomber actually makes this race easier for me, since I usually don't like to endorse coupled entries. This was a case where I liked both halves, but I'm happy to be left with Winning Drive (#1) on top, since he figured to be the bigger price of the two anyway. Winning Drive is a less obvious contender than his former entrymate, but I think he makes a lot of sense in this spot. He was competitive with these when competing for Rob Atras this winter, and he held his form well when claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. He had some issues early in the race, shuffled back while reacting badly to kickback. Yet he stayed on gamely at the end. These connections have been in a bit of a slump, so perhaps this entry won’t take as much money as it should. I’m also not thrilled with other likely short prices. I’d rather consider horses like Striking Speed (#4) and Prince James (#5). The former didn’t run so well first off the claim for Charlton Baker last time, but he was compromised by a poor start and could be more forwardly placed this time. Prince James moves up in class, but he’s steadily improved for the dangerous Ray Handal barn.

Fair Value:
#1 WINNING DRIVE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

There’s no doubt that Whatlovelookslike (#3) is the horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance affair. However, she’s going to be a very short price off exposed form and some obvious trouble in her return race. Coming back off a 6-month layoff last time, she stumbled awkwardly away from the gate before chasing 3-wide around both turns. One could make an argument that she ran just as well as, if not better than, the winner Sanura. If she moves forward in this second start of her 4-year-old season, she’s going to be a handful. However, I don’t think she’s a cinch in a race where she figures to be the prohibitive favorite. Among those who finished behind Whatlovelookslike last time, the only one who I would project to improve is Home for Christmas (#1), who ran like a mare who needed the race off a layoff. She’s raced herself into fitness in the past, and was always out of position last time after a slight bobble at the start. Sweet Franny Lu (#5) is another option, as she returns from a 10-month layoff. She ran a couple of races last year that would make her competitive against this field, including that July 20 runner-up effort where she didn’t get the best trip or ride. However, Tom Morley has poor numbers off layoffs of this type. I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Starship Laoban (#4) only just made her turf debut last month after 13 prior starts on dirt. She certainly appeared to take to the surface despite getting into some trouble. Breaking from the middle of the starting gate, she got sandwiched from both sides a few strides into the race as runners crossed over, causing her to get squeezed back to last. Closing from the back of the pack is not a familiar running style for this filly, but she nevertheless put in a game rally through the stretch to get up for third in a race that featured a tepid pace. I don’t mind the stretch-out at all given her physicality, and I suspect she can be part of the pace this time with a clean start.

Fair Value:
#4 STARSHIP LAOBAN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

This conditioned claimer is one of the most interesting races of the day. Contention runs deep and horses are converging from a variety of class levels. I generally wanted to avoid shorter priced options like Foliage (#9) and Heymackit’sjack (#11). The former showed competitive turf sprint form in early 2022, but he didn’t look like the same horse for Tom Drury earlier this year, and subsequently sold at auction for just $22k last month. Now he gets Irad Ortiz aboard, so he's almost guaranteed to be favored by default. Heymackit’sjack ran some big races over 5 furlongs at Gulfstream over the winter, but he hasn’t been quite as successful going this distance, especially at Belmont. Volkert (#8) strikes me as the horse to beat, and he’s unlikely to be favored. This 5-year-old put forth plenty of competitive turf sprint efforts earlier in his career before failing to handle a yielding course when he last tried turf a year ago. I’m not sure why he’s concentrated on dirt recently, but now he’s getting back to the right surface. At a big price I could even use a longshot like Moon Hunter (#10). He looks slow on paper, but he’s going back to the barn of Michelle Hemingway, for whom he broke his maiden last year, and he’s also reunited with winning pilot John Velazquez. I thought his last turf effort at this level wasn’t nearly as bad as it looks, since the rider gave up on him and he finished with something left in the tank. My top pick is a first time turfer. Royal King (#4) might be the most naturally talented horse in this field based on the evidence of his February maiden win. He’s gone in the wrong direction since then, but he’s had excuses. He didn’t want any part of a route distance two back, and last time he blew the start before rushing up. Mike Maker obviously didn’t make a great claim for $75k, as he’s now dropping in for $30k. Yet the switch to turf may be more than an afterthought for this particular horse. While his pedigree doesn’t exactly say grass, his dam was a turf winner who moved up on the surface. It’s also notable that Royal King’s best race came over a sealed track, which he just skipped over, moving much more freely than in his subsequent dirt races. He strikes me as one that will appreciate turf, and he certainly has the quality to defeat a field like this if he handles the surface.

Fair Value:
#4 ROYAL KING, at 5-1 or greater
#10 MOON HUNTER, at 14-1 or greater