PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 7 - 12 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: FULL COURT PRESS (#4)

#6 Its All Relevant will be pretty tough in this $40k claimer if repeating either of his last two efforts. He beat what was arguably a tougher field last time in a starter handicap, despite getting dismissed at 12-1. However, he got a perfect trip, allowed to set a slow pace before drawing off while never challenged by heavy favorite Doubly Blessed, who was toting 127 pounds. He figures to get a similar trip here, since he’s simply faster that his 6 rivals. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if occasional front-runner #2 Striking Speed got an aggressive ride from Jose Gomez, a rider who knows what it takes to beat the favorite, having ridden him in 3 of his last 4 starts. The main rival at first glance appears to be #5 Glory Road, who won at this level going 6 1/2 furlongs last time in his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda. That was during a time when this barn was enjoying a hot streak that has since cooled down a bit. He also got a perfect setup, as the two favorites dueled on the front end, setting him up as the only viable closer in the field. I want to look elsewhere for my top pick #4 Full Court Press is dropping back in for a tag for the first time since he was claimed for $25k by Horacio De Paz and the connections last summer. He put in a couple of strong efforts in his first two starts for the barn last year before going to the sidelines. While has hasn’t had that same spark in two races since returning from a layoff, I think he’ll appreciate the drop in class and turnback in distance. I believe this horse is better going shorter, and De Paz has sent out some live runners so far at the meet.

WIN: #4 Full Court Press, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 3: DREAM FLY (#3)

Morning line favorite #6 Bali Belle was supposed to have broken her maiden already. Christophe Clement has given her every chance, finding a soft spot at Delaware where she was odds-on, before she lost twice at relatively short prices in Florida this winter. She just lacks some late punch in her route races, which is probably why Clement is trying a sprint experiment now. Her pedigree isn't exactly screaming shorter, but Clement is 10 for 26 (38%, $2.55 ROI) with maidens going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont over 5 years. I slightly prefer her to the other runner from this barn. However, there are a couple of more intriguing runners coming off layoffs. #5 Frosted Oats took money in all three starts last year, which isn’t a big surprise considering her MyRacehorse ownership. She ran her best race second time out on grass, making the first move into a pretty honest pace before getting run down by a pair of talented Chad Brown runners. She proved that she could indeed sprint in her 2-year-old finale, which begs the natural question: Would she in fact be best as a turf sprinter? However, she has to be ready to fire off the bench, and Bill Mott is just 1 for 18 (5%, $0.18 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years. My top pick is #3 Dream Fly, who also returns from a layoff. However, her trainer Wesley Ward is 24 for 84 (29%, $2.15 ROI) with the exact same set of parameters mentioned above for Mott. Dream Fly was heavily backed and disappointing in both starts early in her 2-year-old season. She obviously has to do better with the switch to grass, but this filly does have turf pedigree. She’s by 12% turf sprint sire American Pharoah out of a dam who is a half-sister to G2-winning turf sprinter Bound for Nowhere (8 for 18, $1.1 million). If she’s gotten over the gate issues she displayed as a youngster, we should see an improved performance here.

WIN: #3 Dream Fly, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 6: GRINGOTTS (#3)

#5 Stone Creator figures to go off at a very short price once again, but I’m starting to get a little leery of this filly. She began her career with such promise, winning her debut impressively before finishing a good second in the Maddie May. However, she ran a little worse in the East View and then really had no excuse to lose at this level against a weak field last time. This is a tougher spot and she’s going to be a similar short price based more on potential than actual performance. I’m also not a big fan of the horse that many will peg as the best alternative, #4 Gallina. She got very good earlier this winter, but both wins came over sealed tracks closing from far back. She’s unlikely to get as favorable a setup here and there’s no guarantee she’ll maintain that form following the layoff. I see two more interesting alternatives, one logical and the other a big price. The sensible pick is #3 Gringotts. Despite going out for low-profile connections, she’s been in great form as of late. She was a surprise third at 20-1 in the Sis City three back, and then bettered that form when finishing a close fifth at the tougher N2X level two back. That performance, for which she earned a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure, would almost certainly beat this field. And she arguably should have won last time when encountering traffic just as she commenced her rally. She’s making her first start off the claim for Bob Klesaris and getting a rider upgrade to Jose Gomez. There’s just plenty to like. At a much bigger price, I’d also consider upgrading #6 Know It All Audrey. I know she looks way too slow, but she spent some time on a dead rail before angling out two back. She came off a layoff last time and looked like she was just getting in a prep going shorter. She’s worked well recently and may be ready for a step forward.

WIN: #3 Gringotts, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #6 Know It All Audrey, at 15-1 or greater

RACE 7: GIRAMONTE (#5)

#3 Cousin Andrew is arguably the horse to beat as he wheels back in just 8 days and switches back to turf. However, this horse was once an effective dirt performer and his lack of effort here last week has to be of some concern. He did show minor improvement switching to turf at the end of last season, but he benefited from fast paces in both of those races. It’s unclear how the pace of this affair will play out, but I didn’t feel particularly drawn to this gelding at a short price. Wesley Ward is always dangerous in turf sprints, and his #6 Blame the Booze has to be considered a player. He started out his career on dirt, but he proved he could handle grass last August at Ellis Park. The turnback should work for him, and Ward has great stats off layoffs. #2 Ginnsu Warrior is also mildly intriguing on the turnback after trying a tougher field routing on turf last time. He’s a stout, robustly built gelding who may appreciate this shorter trip. Yet my top pick is #5 Giramonte. It took this gelding a while to break his maiden last year, but he ran well in most of his turf sprint efforts since getting claimed by Leah Gyarmati over the summer. He actually finished ahead of King Moonracer on Aug. 14 just prior to getting his diploma. He only made one start against winners on grass last fall and it was a total disaster. He broke a step slowly and was in trouble right from the start, as he got very rank racing in traffic, fighting his rider severely for the first three furlongs before calling it quits. He’s obviously better than that, and I think he can rebound coming off the layoff.

WIN: #5 Giramonte, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 2,6

RACE 8: ROSSA VELOCE (#7)

This N2X allowance optional claimer features the East Coast debut of Grade 1 placed #5 Forest Caraway. This well-bred daughter of Bodemeister is a half-sister to popular NY-breds Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. She began her career in California with Peter Miller, finishing second to the once highly regarded Princess Noor in the Del Mar Debutante. She looked like she had really taken a step forward when she returned from a layoff last August. However, she wasn’t able to back up that impressive return, losing her next two starts at short prices. Now she returns for Todd Pletcher with Miller on hiatus from training. Pletcher is 12 for 44 (27%, $1.43 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt sprints over 5 years. However, the barn is off to a slow start at this meet and she figures to take plenty of money. They all could have #3 Fouette to catch. It’s interesting to see this filly transferred to Linda Rice, who once had great success with Lady Sheila Stable, campaigning champion La Verdad among others. Yet she hasn’t sent out a runner for this owner in over a year. Fouette began her career with Steve Asmussen and showed some precocity. She’s always had trouble sustaining her speed, but looks pretty loose on the front end here, which makes her dangerous. I’m trying to beat both of these fillies with #7 Rossa Veloce. She already won at this level two back when racing for the $62,500 tag, so she’s still eligible to compete for the allowance condition. This NY-bred filly wasn’t beating much that day, but she did run better than it appears last time, chasing wide against a rail bias. She’s produced a string of solid efforts despite being ridden by low-profile riders for the better part of the last year. Now she’s getting a significant upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche while also making her first start off the claim for William Morey. The barn doesn’t have great stats with that move, but has sent out two live runners so far at this meet.

WIN: #7 Rossa Veloce, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9: JET SET JULIET (#3)

I’m not particularly fond of a few horses who could take money in this spot. #2 Tempermental was supposed to win last time when encountering an exceptionally weak field for the level. She ran on decently for second, but the winner came back to regress by 6 points in her next start. #12 Road to Remember finally drops in class after 7 maiden special weight attempts, but her form had tailed off when she was last seen. Now she’s going to take more money that never before with Joel Rosario climbing aboard, and I don’t find her to be particularly trustworthy. I’ll instead try to beat this pair with #3 Jet Set Juliet off the layoff. She showed good speed in her debut at this level last October, and has a right to do better with routine improvement. That was a dirt race, but she has plenty of turf pedigree, being by Freud out of a dam who’s produced multiple turf winner Marvelous Maude. She goes out for dangerous connections off the layoff, but may have to deal with other speed. #7 War in Paradise also merits consideration at what should be a decent price. She’s run deceptively well in her last couple of starts going longer, as she attacked a strong pace two back and got a wide trip last time. Former trainer Jorge Abreu wanted to sprint her on debut last year, so perhaps she’ll appreciate the cutback in distance.

WIN: #3 Jet Set Juliet, at 5-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 War in Paradise, at 8-1 or greater