by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   12 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 3 - 10 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 12 - 9

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CANARSIE GIRL (#6)
This maiden special weight event features a relatively weak field for the level, topped by a heavy favorite. That filly, Mo Moxie, put forth more of the same in her first start following a trainer switch to Kiaran McLaughlin. She forged to a brief lead at the quarter pole before settling for second. The Chad Brown filly who beat her is probably better than those Florida foes, so she at least held her form for the new barn. However, she’s likely to get bet down to odds-on territory once again, and she just doesn’t do that much for me. Her main rival is We Are Family, who finished behind her last time in a solid effort. She has to improve again to turn the tables, but has a right to do just that. Nevin is 24 for 91 (26 percent, $2.10 ROI) second off a layoff in dirt routes over 5 years. I’ll use both of these, but my top pick is the 3-year-old Canarsie Girl. This filly is back to the right surface after a turf experiment went awry. She has earned some checks in the past, but she exits slower races against straight 3-year-olds, and is now facing older foes on dirt for the first time. She must improve to contend for the top spot, but there is at least one reason to believe she may do so. It's hard to find positive trainer stats for Contessa, so it's rather noteworthy that this barn is 14 for 35 (40 percent, $5.03 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt routes at NYRA. That is reason enough to merit consideration in a short field with limited options.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5
 

RACE 3: MANDATORY PAYOUT (#4)
Cousin Pete was purchased for $320,000 just more than a year ago and now returns as a gelding while dropping in for a tag for the first time. He disappointed in both starts as a juvenile and was not too popular at the windows on either occasion. He ran to that lack of support, plodding along behind Mucho in his Saratoga debut before flashing improved speed and fading when last seen in October. He’s now getting some significant class relief after facing much better competition last year. Todd Pletcher is a remarkable 26 for 48 (54 percent, $2.78 ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming races on dirt. Cousin Pete has the profile of horses who win these races, but I prefer his main rival, Mandatory Payout. This gelding performed below expectations when failing to improve off the Rob Atras claim last time but had excuses that day. He was steadied sharply leaving the chute, which placed him at the back of the pack in the early going. He was further compromised by a slow pace up front in a race dominated by the early leaders. He should appreciate stretching back out to a route distance since he ran better than it seems going a mile two back. He was off slowly that day and wide on the turn. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him closer to the pace this time, and I believe he still has room to improve.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,3,5
 

RACE 6: ACHILLES WARRIOR (#7)
Chad Brown has entered two runners in this allowance event, and both figure to attract their fair share of support. Identity Politics is the class of the field on the basis of his Grade 1 placing in the Malibu last December. However, he’s been somewhat disappointing since then. He lost as the 4-5 favorite two back at Gulfstream despite receiving a highly favorable pace setup. I can excuse his poor effort in the Carter, but I’m starting to wonder if we saw the best this horse has to offer over the winter. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that this race will favor horses racing on or near the lead, and he is projected to be at the back of the pack. His uncoupled stablemate Payne is also quite interesting as he returns from a long layoff. He looked great in his only prior start for this barn last summer, defeating the well-meant Hersh in a fast maiden event. He appears to be training well for his return, and I would not be surprised if he’s the Brown runner whom you really want. I’m using both, but my top pick is Achilles Warrior. I was disappointed not to cash a win bet on this runner last time since he ran too well to lose that race to an improbable longshot. Achilles Warrior had hinted that better things were on the horizon with his workouts at Gulfstream this winter, the last of which featured him outdrilling his talented stablemate Strike Power. While he benefited from a moderate pace in his return at Aqueduct, he figures to get a similar setup on the front end here. He only has to outrun The Caretaker to the front, and the early lead should be his. As long as he continues his forward momentum, I believe he can upset the Brown pair.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,6 with 2,3,6,8,9