by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 4: 2 - 10 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 8 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 12 - 7 - 13 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 8 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 11 - 5
RACE 1: REATA’S REWARD (#1)
Rudy Rodriguez holds a strong hand in this conditioned claimer, sending out Simona and Promise Me Roses. The former filly may go off as the favorite as she steps up to the N3L level off an easy win in late April. She always runs competitive speed figures but tends to settle for minor awards, so it remains to be seen if she can put together back-to-back victories. Her stablemate Promise Me Roses seems like the a more talented individual, but she’s failed to maintain her form ever since being claimed away from Rob Atras. Rudy Rodriguez did get a little too ambitious off the claim, running her in a tougher starter allowance two back, and it’s possible that she hated a sloppy track last time. However, the track is likely to be wet again on Friday and she has also struggled to get out of the gate in recent starts. I’m using her, but I want to look elsewhere for my top pick. I’ve landed on Reata’s Reward, whose early speed is going to make her dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and she is clearly faster than her rivals in the early going. She was supposed to have a similar advantage last time, but she stumbled and fell to her nose at the start, losing all chance. I think it’s noteworthy that she had been well supported in the wagering that day – bet down to a surprising even-money – because it may signal that she’s doing well and can get back to her better efforts from 2018. As long as she breaks cleanly this time, I think she’ll be tough to reel in.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 7: CURLIN’S NEW MOON (#1)
Dr. Hipp is likely to go off as a heavy favorite in this conditioned claiming event. He’s clearly earned the fastest speed figures in this field while facing tougher company. However, there are some red flags. His two best dirt races came for Chad Brown, and he did not put forth his finest effort first off the claim for David Duggan two back. The turf experiment last time made sense since he actually has pedigree for that surface, but the performance was dreadful. This drop to $25,000 may seem a little hasty, but it’s a good sign that Jose Ortiz takes the mount. He’s formidable if he holds his form, but I get the feeling he may be heading in the wrong direction. His main rival appears to be Spectator Sport. This colt paid immediate dividends off the claim for Atras, winning his maiden exactly one week after he was acquired. He returned in a much tougher starter-allowance spot in April and held on well to be third after contesting the pace. The turf experiment failed, but now he’s back on the right surface. As with Dr. Hipp, the drop in class may seem drastic, but Atras is merely placing him where he belongs. I’m using him, but my top pick is Curlin’s New Moon. This honest gelding rarely wins but has been known to put up a competitive speed figure from time to time. He also seems to have an affinity for Belmont Park. He is coming off one of his better efforts when closing gamely to be second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner. This field is not actually much tougher than that one despite a higher claiming tag. This race does not figure to set up for a closer, but he showed on Feb. 23 that he can adapt to a paceless situation.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with ALL