by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1/1A - 2B - 5 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 8 - 6 - 4 - 2
RACE 2: REGAL DAME (#1)
La Piu Bella is going to take money in this race off the basis of her 10-length victory at Gulfstream last time. While it’s uncommon to see horses win turf races by such a large margin, that lopsided victory was primarily due to a dearth of competitive rivals in a very weak maiden claiming affair. She can obviously win here, but I don’t think she deserves to be a shorter price than Regal Dame, who has proven herself against stouter competition on the grass. In retrospect, her runner-up finish at the Fair Grounds back on Feb. 2 was actually a decent effort. The winner, Roussalka, returned to run a respectable race in a minor stakes thereafter, and the third-place finisher has also run improved races in subsequent starts. While Regal Dame was running in a conditioned claimer, that race came against older horses, and she’s meeting 3-year-olds this time. Furthermore, she had some subtle difficulties last time. Kendrick Carmouche came out of the gate looking for the lead, but he was forced to rate when another runner was sent aggressively inside of her. Regal Dame stalked in the two path thereafter, but was pushed even wider for the run around the far turn when a runner made a premature move up the rail. She lost some momentum when steadied out at the quarter pole, but never stopped running in the lane and was actually coming back on the third-place finisher late. Today, she should work out a great stalking trip, and I think she’s just better than these horses. I’ll use her with the favorite, but I also want to throw in Giant Boxer at a big price. This horse has a bit of turf pedigree, and actually ran much better than it seems in that stakes last time. She’s an interesting new face.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with ALL
RACE 5: STORMY’S SONG (#3)
Sower ran well in her debut at Laurel, but that race came just six days ago. Linda Rice has had some success bringing runners back on short rest like this, making a similar move with her talented filly Midnight Disguise earlier in the year. However, Midnight Disguise was not well regarded at that time and Linda typically seems to do this with runners that are not reliable in the long term. She’s dangerous here, but I want to play against her given a short price. The obvious alternative is Posse Needed, who appreciated the turnback in distance off the layoff last time and would be very dangerous here if she steps forward at all off that return effort. She figures to get an honest pace to close into with speed coming from Sower, Everybody Loves Me, and Bow Town Cat. I’m using her, but my top pick at what is hopefully a slightly better price is Stormy’s Song. This filly ran very well in her career debut last summer at Belmont, indicating that she’s capable of putting forth a top performance when fresh. Her subsequent race at a mile was not a bad effort given the distance, and things just went awry after that. She blew the break in that Aug. 6 effort at Saratoga, costing her any chance, and then she seemed not to handle the slop in her final dirt start. I think she’s back on the right surface, and I’m hoping she’s able to run well while stalking the pace.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5
RACE 6: FINGERPAINT (#4)
I found there to be a limited number of viable options in this race. I’m not thrilled with any of the first-time starters. Fiduciary Values is the one that goes out for the best debut barn, but she’s a two-year-old sale purchase that is making her debut over a year later in a route. That’s usually not a great sign. Golden Award is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another, but this barn’s horses usually need a start going long. The same goes for Surging Tide, who also has excellent route pedigree. Among those that have run, Presumptuous clearly has run the best races, but she’s difficult to trust after accumulating 11 slices in 17 career starts. Therefore, I think it’s reasonable to view this as a race in which we can get a little creative. I’ve been a fan of Fingerpaint, and I liked her last time coming off the layoff. It turns out that she may have simply needed that race. She didn’t run that much worse than Oozle, who is going to be a short price here. Fingerpaint showed slight hints of ability as a two-year-old, and I think she deserves one more shot, especially given the uncertain nature of this race.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,7
RACE 7: BENEFACTOR (#4) / GORSE (#7)
A number of horses in this race that are going to take money look vulnerable to me. Harlan’s Hunch was allowed to set a relatively moderate pace here just a week ago, and was legitimately disqualified for veering out sharply in the final sixteenth. Super Dude handled turf well in his initial grass start, but where has he been in the intervening 11 months? I don’t quite trust him as he returns for a tag, nor am I enamored with Linda Rice’s other horse Wild About Deb. In my opinion, the horse to beat is clearly Benefactor. This runner was simply facing much tougher company when he was previously running on turf at Gulfstream this winter, meeting the likes of Nileator, Secretary At War, and Funtastic. While turf is probably his preferred surface, his most recent dirt start indicates that he’s maintained sharp form for Mike Maker, and I think he’ll prove difficult to beat on the return to grass. The one other runner that I want to use in conjunction with the morning line favorite is Gorse, who switches back to turf for his new barn. Back in the summer of his three-year-old season, Gorse was posting respectable efforts on grass against some legitimate foes in Kentucky and Indiana. Since then, he’s actually held his form well on dirt, and one can argue that grass is his favored surface. I don’t know much about his new trainer, but Richard Stillaman does get a TimeformUS Trainer Rating of 82 with his grass runners. At a generous price, he’s one to throw into the mix.
Win/Place: 7
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 2,6,8 with 7
RACE 8: HARLAN PUNCH (#7)
Hard Study is going to be a prohibitive favorite in this race, since he is one of the few runners in the field that owns a win at a marathon distance. That victory in the Birdstone last summer at Saratoga came going three furlongs farther than this, so he obviously handles the distance. The problem I have with Hard Study is that the Birdstone field was a much weaker one than this, and Hard Study’s surrounding two-turn races don’t make him any kind of standout in this field. Certainly horses like Zanotti and even Backsideofthemoon have run just as well on a number of occasions. I think he’s the most likely winner, but he could be a significant underlay. I’m taking a shot against him with Harlan Punch. Am I confident he can get the distance? No. How could you be? However, this horse has shown himself to be incredibly versatile and ran legitimately well going just one furlong shorter than this at 1 1/4 miles back in February. I know that his recent form looks suspicious, but he actually ran much better than it seems in both of those races. The seven furlongs two back was just too short for him as he was out of position and in tight throughout. Last time, he blew the break and made a crazy premature move into the clubhouse turn. All things considered, he ran a spectacular race to be third that day. As this horse has matured under Jacobson’s care, I actually think he’s changed and become better suited to these longer races. As long as he breaks cleanly, he’s capable of setting an honest pace and galloping his rivals into defeat. At what should be a square price, he’s the best alternative I can find.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,5,6,8