PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 3
Race 5:   13 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 10
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 11 - 1 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I don’t have major knocks against either of the likely favorites in this spot. Mason Mania (#1) was mildly compromised by a poor start last time, but he also had every chance to catch the leaders from the half-mile pole home and just couldn’t reel them in. This is a softer spot, and I do view him as the horse to beat. I’m slightly less enthused about Safalow’s Mission (#4), though he did chase an honest pace last time and held well for third. I just still have some doubts about whether he really wants to go this far. I’m interested in Mighty Atlas (#5) at a better price. This 3-year-old took a big step forward off the layoff last time, closing steadily to just miss getting up for second at a big price. The race didn’t earn much of a speed figure, but it was a decent allowance affair. I think he’s a candidate to take another step forward here. Tom Morley is 7 for 40 (18%, $3.67 ROI) second off a layoff of 100 to 200 days over the past 5 years. He has more upside than the rest and should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#5 MIGHTY ATLAS, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6

I suppose logical types like Improper (#6) and Warman Road (#7) will attract the bulk of support in this race. They both seem spotted appropriately, as Improper was an easy winner against maiden claimers last time, and Warman Road seems a little overmatched at the allowance level. Improper probably found the right field last time and I want to be careful not to overrate him off that visually impressive effort. Warman Road seemed to react very badly to not making the lead last time, so perhaps he’ll be more effective here where he looks like the fastest speed. Yet I want to keep an open mind, as this feels like a spot where a few decent horses could get overlooked. I want to note the rise in class for John’s Protégé (#3), who is ambitiously placed second off the claim for Chris Englehart. The barn has been firing lately and he has some prior races for Wesley Ward that would give him a shot. Hatch (#5) looks like one that tailed off over the winter, but he’s another with form that would make him tough against this field if he’s ready to rebound off the layoff. He might not have liked the wet tracks that he encountered last time and two back, and he picks up Dylan Davis. My top pick is Juggler (#4), who might be the biggest price of all these contenders. He was overmatched against a tougher field of state-bred allowance horses last time, but was hardly disgraced. That was his second start since a trainer switch to a barn that has gotten some big prices to run well on this circuit. He showed ability last year and still has a chance to build on that form.

Fair Value:
#4 JUGGLER, at 9-1 or greater
#5 HATCH, at 8-1 or greater
#3 JOHN'S PROTEGE, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 8

There’s little doubt that Zandon (#7) is the horse to beat in this Westchester as he returns from the layoff to launch his 4-year-old campaign. Yet there are some questions he has to answer. Chad Brown had intended to run him in a softer optional claiming race last week, and he was forced to target this spot instead after the track came up sloppy. Brown has a reputation for doing well off layoffs, but he is just 5 for 25 (20%, $0.74 ROI) with horses off 120 to 240 day layoffs in dirt stakes over the past 5 years, in a sample primarily composed of short prices. There’s little doubt that this colt was one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, but he disappointed slightly towards the end of the year. I don’t think he’s supposed to relish this one-mile distance, but he did disappoint going this far as the favorite in the Cigar Mile. Chad Brown’s other entrant Dr Ardito (#3) could take money based on his string of recent victories, but I think he would have to improve to beat the toughest field that he’s ever faced. Repo Rocks (#8) would be a strong contender if he could get back to the form we saw out of him this winter. However, he’s regressed slightly twice in a row since that breakout performance in the Toboggan two back. I’m skeptical that he can turn things back around. Weyburn (#6) appears to be back in top form after struggling in the second half of 2022. He ran well twice down at Gulfstream since being reunited with original trainer Jimmy Jerkens. I think some others in here have a higher ceiling, but he does figure to be a decent price. My top pick is Unbridled Bomber (#5). There was always the frame of a top horse here, but it took him a long time to put all the pieces together. He showed promise as a 2-year-old, but then seemed to lack focus during the early part of that 3-year-old season. Things finally started to click into place last fall, and now he’s won 3 of his last 4 starts. The most recent stakes attempt in the Queens County went awry, but he reportedly wasn’t himself that day and subsequently got some time off. He looked better than ever off the layoff last time, showing improved tactical speed before sailing clear late. His 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance stacks up favorably against the favorite. The fact that he’s wheeling back in just 3 weeks would appear to suggest that he’s done well since then.

Fair Value:
#5 UNBRIDLED BOMBER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

Both favorites have their flaws in this New York-bred maiden finale. Robyn and Eli (#7) will take money as a Chad Brown-trained, Manny Franco-ridden option with solid speed figures. Yet she’s had her chances to break through at this level and has generally disappointed. She did have a trip last time, but that was also a race that fell apart in the late stages, ad she was merely picking up pieces. Succulent (#11) is a little more appealing on form, since she at least got in a prep last time. She stalled a bit in the late stages of that Apr. 15 race, but just looked a little rusty off the layoff. I expect her to run better this time, but it’s not as if she has the most convincing winning profile either. I’m instead interested in Be Best (#8). This filly took money on debut, but ran like a horse who needed the experience. She broke a bit slowly and just ran along at one pace. Watching that replay, she moves like a horse that should take to turf, which makes sense based on her pedigree. Hard Spun is a good grass influence, and the dam was a synthetic stakes winner who has produced a turf winner. John Terranova is 5 for 35 (14%, $3.81 ROI) with first time turfers, connecting with some prices. I expect her to move up with this surface switch and added distance.

Fair Value:
#8 BE BEST, at 6-1 or greater