PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 8 - 9
Race 4:   9 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 2 - 11
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 9 - 2 - 10
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   11 - 9 - 13 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: EASY SHOT (#6)

I have no major argument against #4 Chris and Dave, other than the fact that he’s likely to be a short price and is fairly obvious. Rob Atras is a decent 5 for 21 (24%, $2.25 ROI) with horses first off the claim who are moving up in claiming price by 50% or more. It was encouraging to see him wake up last time as his form had been on the decline since late last year. He battled gamely when challenged by winner Crypto Cash in the stretch, and that one came back to win, as did the third and fourth-place finishers. The one major issue for this horse is that there is other speed signed on, and he could sustain early challenges from runners like Auburn Hills and Liam’s Fire. I’m trying to beat the favorite with #6 Easy Shot. He would be aided by a swift pace up front, as he tends to run his best races when he’s held up early. He got the right setup to win for a higher claiming tag in the slop two back. He lost at this level last time, but that was a pretty tough field for the level, as winner Its All Relevant has improved in his last few starts. Easy Shot also got the wrong trip, as she was used too aggressively to get early position after a slow start, and then launched another middle move to challenge the leader on the turn before fading. Notably, he’s been claimed out of that race by Jeffrey Englehart, who is 10 for 23 (43%, $4.69 ROI) first off the claim over the past 4 months.

WIN: #6 Easy Shot, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 3: LADY THORNHILL (#3)

I expect the 3-year-olds in this lineup to attract plenty of support, and that group is led by #8 She’s a Mia. This filly showed turf ability for trainer Cleveland Johnson last year, outrunning massive odds to win her debut and finish second in the Tepin Stakes. As well as she did for that barn, one has to consider a trainer switch to Christophe Clement to be an upgrade. Yet she’s likely to get bet in accordance with that popular view, and it’s no guarantee that she’ll be ready to fire her best shot off the bench. #6 Solib has a recency edge on that rival, and I take it as a good sign that she ran so well in her dirt sprint prep last time. That wasn’t the strongest field for the level, but her performance was consistent with the narrative that she’s just improved a great deal since her career debut last summer. She figures to be suited by the surface switch, but she wants to be forward and there is plenty of other speed in this field. I considered both Linda Rice trained runners, but #9 Kannon Fire didn’t beat much on debut, and Rice has poor numbers off the kind of layoff from which #7 Tales of Makenna is returning. I’m going in a different direction with #3 Lady Thornhill. She’s also returning from a layoff, but should at least be a generous price. She also ran arguably the best race of her career off a similar layoff last summer at Saratoga. Since then she’s been tough to ride at times, but it seemed like Donk got her figured out towards the end of 2021. She finally learned to rate and produced strong finishes in those two Aqueduct starts last fall. She needs to improve slightly from a speed figure standpoint, but it's not like anyone in this field is a standout in that department.

WIN: #3 Lady Thornhill, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 6,8