by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 1/1A - 2 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 6: 7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 7: 1 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 9: 10 - 7 - 8 - 11
RACE 2: TRAFFIC SONG (#6)
Single Soul is probably the horse to beat, but it’s a little concerning that she was vanned off after crossing the wire last time. That said, it took her only a month to get back to the worktab and she returns fairly quickly. If all is well with her, she has to be considered a major contender in this spot. She ran better than the margin of victory would indicate when breaking her maiden two back, as Ortiz was also hands and heels until the last sixteenth. She now cuts back to 9 furlongs is drawn perfectly on the rail, as Irad Ortiz takes over the reins from his brother. Vividly also makes some sense as one of just two 4-year-olds in this field of younger rivals. While she’s yet to win in this country, she has displayed steady improvement under Brendan Walsh’s care. She saved ground at the back of the pack for much of her journey last time and was finishing well before running into traffic in the last sixteenth. The only concern is that she can be a little dependent on pace and there isn’t a ton of speed in here. I’m going in a different direction with Traffic Song. This filly had all the best of it on the front end when she won at Monmouth two back, but she was game to fend off the late challenge of Investment Income, who stalked her throughout. It’s worth noting that she had some trips to start her career. She had trouble in her debut at Gulfstream and then was compromised by a slow pace on May 8 when she was also buried inside. It would be unfair to hold her last dirt loss against her, and now she’s getting back on the right surface for Jimmy Toner, who has been very selective about which horses he sends to NYRA recently. She still has upside and could work out a great trip on top of what figures to be a slow pace.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 3: LAOCHI (#6)
Twist Just Right is the stronger half of this formidable Jorge Abreu entry. She finished a good second on debut at Saratoga, as she broke well and showed excellent early speed before getting run down by closing firster Moam. Third-place finisher Let Her Inspire U returned to just miss here on Sunday, but she arguably regressed in that spot. Jorge Abreu does great work with firsters, but he’s just 1 for 20 (5%, $0.25 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. That stat also applies to the other half of this entry, Empire Lily. She took a ton of money on debut, getting bet down to 8-5 despite facing another highly touted first time starter, eventual winner Makin My Move. She broke with the field and sat a good stalking trip, moving up on the turn like she might loom a threat, but flattened out badly through the stretch. Now she adds blinkers but I’m a little concerned that she wants more ground, as her pedigree would suggest, and she’ll be a short price due to her entrymate. I prefer Laochi. This filly was dismissed at 17-1 on debut in the face of heavily backed firster Classy Edition. She was no match for that rival but was hardly disgraced in defeat. She overcame a slow start to get herself into the race before chasing the winner home. The race came up slow, but it was the only one on the entire card to be run over a sealed track, creating some uncertainty about the speed figures. Classy Edition returned to improve significantly in her next start, so perhaps it was a stronger maiden event than it appears.
Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 1 with 2,4,5
RACE 6: STOLEN HOLIDAY (#7)
Love and Thunder is obviously the horse to beat but she’s hard to take at another short price after settling for second at odds of 2-1 or less in four consecutive races. She has had excuses in a few of those losses, as she was against a slow pace in her U.S. debut, and had to wait in traffic in upper stretch on both May 22 and Aug. 28. I actually like this turnback in distance to 7 furlongs for her, but she will need some pace to close into. There are a few viable alternatives to this favorite. Some may consider Harper’s in Charge. She did run to her pedigree and take to turf last time, but I’m a little concerned about her handling a longer distance here. Magisterium shouldn’t be dismissed at a bigger price as she moves back into N1X allowance company. She ran well against stakes foes last time out in the Riskaverse and should appreciate this return to sprinting. My top pick is Stolen Holiday. It’s a slight concern that she’s needed significant time between starts recently, but I think she’s shown ability in her brief career. She was a very impressive winner of her career debut and then was off for a long time after losing an allowance race in the summer of 2020. Her return in April was solid, as she was beaten by subsequent graded stakes-placed rival High Opinion after setting the pace. While she has a versatile pedigree, I actually like the cutback in distance for her and she should sit a good stalking trip.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 4 with 1,2,5,6
RACE 8: PECATONICA (#1)
Myhartblongstodady is the horse to beat as she takes another crack at New York-bred stakes company after settling for second in the Yaddo last time out. She did her best work last year when she was able to make the lead, but many of those were paceless races in which she just inherited the front end without having to earn that early position. I’m not sure that she’s actually that quick in the early going and I doubt she has much of a pace advantage here. She got a pretty good trip last time and was simply second best to winner Giacosa, who covered much more ground. The horse I want out of that race is Pecatonica. I’ve never been this mare’s biggest fan, but she has improved this year as a 5-year-old. She ran well against open company twice this summer and then held well in the Yaddo after going 3-wide around both turns. She could play out as the speed from the rail under Jose Ortiz, who rode her to a gate-to-wire victory earlier in the year. Rail position is usually an advantage going this distance on the inner turf. The new face to consider is Ice Princess, who didn’t run badly in her lone prior turf start. She was against a slow pace and wide in that June 17 affair, in which she was beaten by Pecatonica. I’m just concerned that Ice Princess could take money off her superior dirt speed figure from last time. She’s a player, but I prefer Pecatonica at a similar price.
Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,4
RACE 9: EL MAYOR (#10)
A few of the major players in this race are exiting the first race on September 4 going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga. Those runners – War Smoke, Citizen K, and Suit of Armor – are all contenders here, but the stretch-out in distance could be a hurdle for a few of them. The one that I’d be most concerned about is War Smoke, who had no excuse to lose last time. He looked like a winner in upper stretch and just hung badly, hardly giving the impression that he wants more ground. Citizen K has upside, but he could be favored here after going off at 13-1 last time. I’m veering away from that race and going for two horses coming out of different spots. Yarrow is the more logical of the two, as he cuts back slightly after trying 1 1/16 miles off the layoff last time. He was game to hang on for third after setting the pace, and shouldn’t mind this turnback to 7 furlongs. Yet I’m most interested in a horse trying this surface for the first time. El Mayor has made two starts in Florida and I think he’s been running on the wrong surface. This colt is by versatile sire Laoban out of a turf-winning dam who was best on grass. Her best foal to date has been the Mucho Macho Man-sired City Man, who is a multiple stakes winner on grass. Watching this colt run, he has the stride of a horse who should take to turf. Jose F. D’Angelo isn’t a well known name in these parts, but he has had success with Jesus’ Team. Now he gets a rider upgrade to Paco Lopez and could get somewhat ignored in the face of more logical options.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,7,8,11