by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 2 - 1/1A - 3 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 8 - 2 - 9
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
RACE 4: SURPRISE ARRIVAL (#2)
The Christophe Clement entry figures to go off at a very short price in this race. Stretchthestory couldn’t quite catch today’s rival Mazal Eighteen in that Sep. 13 maiden event. She basically repeated her debut effort, and both of those performances make her a major player here. One would hope that she shows a bit more speed this time so that her late run can garner her more than a minor award. Yet, in this field, she’s the horse to beat, and her price won’t be helped by her stablemate. First-time starter Saratoga Love has a solid turf sprint pedigree. While Palace Malice’s statistics with turf starters aren’t strong, he has sired a couple graded stakes winners on grass, Crystalle and Structor. This entry is formidable, but I think you also have to respect Mazal Eighteen, who finished ahead of Stretchthestory last time. She clearly appreciated the turnback last time, and both of these horses were flattered when A Freud of Mama returned to finish third in the Matron last week. I’m using both prominently, but I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Surprise Arrival has finished far back in both starts, but I have a feeling she may be able to turn things around with this surface switch. She did flash some improved speed last time – very briefly – before fading badly in the lane. Mike Maker doesn’t have the greatest numbers with first-time turfers, and there’s really no turf pedigree to speak of on the dam’s side. However, new sire Lea was a Grade 3 winner on turf to go along with his dirt accomplishments, and he’s had some success as a turf sire in his brief stallion career. I won’t be surprised if this filly can get in front of the field early and keep going at a price.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,8
RACE 5: CAROM (#4)
The top contenders seem very closely matched in this fascinating conditioned claimer. Labeq arguably brings some of the strongest turf form to the table. You can ignore that poor effort in the slop last time, as his prior two grass performances were quite encouraging. He followed up that maiden-breaking score with a good second sandwiched between next-out winners Cross Border and Red Right Hand, both of whom have gone on to do some nice things. If he can duplicate that effort, he’ll be a major factor, but there are others to consider. Whisky Is My Wine was competitive at this same level last time, but now he stretches out an extra furlong and this field may have come up a bit tougher. Channel Island is getting some class relief, dropping out of two consecutive stakes and cutting back in distance. If he runs back to his effort at Saratoga in July, he’ll have a say in the outcome of this race. Yet, I prefer a different horse out of that July 18 affair. Carom got a ridiculous trip that day, hung out 3 and 4 wide around the turns without any cover. He worked out a much more favorable journey next time out and responded with a solid runner-up result. Then last time, he was facing a particularly tough field at the N1X level, and he was hardly disgraced, losing by just 2 lengths after launching a bid up the rail in the stretch. I actually don’t mind this slight turnback to 9 furlongs at all, and I think he fits really well from a class perspective. The only other time he was in for a tag resulted in victory. Note that Dylan Davis gives up the mount on Labeq to land here.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,8,9
Trifecta: 4 with 2,8 with 2,3,8,9
RACE 7: SO CHARMING (#4)
Pivotal Connection will probably beat this field if she duplicates her last performance, which resulted in an impressive 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, she got a very good trip that day, saving ground while rating well off a fast pace, and was never a serious threat in the lane. I’m not convinced that she necessarily gets better with added distance, since she lost a similar race going this distance a year ago. Perhaps she’s improved since then, but I want to see some validation for that last performance before I accept a very short price on her. Cap de Creus and Fancy That are coming out of a race at Saratoga on Aug. 22. Fancy That got an odd trip that day, as she appeared to be empty when backing up at the top of the stretch, but she rerallied to be second. Cap de Creus probably didn’t appreciate inheriting the lead that day and she was trying to battle back in the stretch when they were sprinting to the wire. I’m using both of them, but I want to go in a different direction. So Charming’s recent form appears to be slightly inferior to some others. However, she’s had excuses in a few of those races. She was never really in a position to be competitive last time, as she encountered some trouble at the back of the pack and couldn’t uncork her late run. She doesn’t possess a strong turn of foot, so she couldn’t quite kick with the others when they sprinted for home two back at Saratoga. She’s a horse who seems to do her best work at Belmont Park and this 10-furlong distance is ideal. It’s been a long time since she’s won a race, but that only figures to drive up the price on this otherwise logical contender.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,5,6