by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 1A
Race 2:   10 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 12 - 7 - 10
Race 4:   6 - 9 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   3 - 1A - 7 - 4
Race 8:   8 - 10 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 1A - 14 - 5

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 5: REGALIAN (#5)
This race is totally wide-open, as you have several horses with solid résumés converging from a multitude of directions. You’re Killin Me may go off as the slight favorite after beating allowance company at Laurel last time out. He was pretty game to win that race after squeezing through a tight spot in midstretch. This horse was unsuccessful in two starts in New York, but both of those efforts came against slightly tougher company than this. He’s generally been a consistent sort, and any residual moisture in the surface should only enhance his chances of victory. I’m using him, but there are many others to consider. California Night faced tougher company when last seen this spring, but the prospect of a wet track could be troublesome for him. Reed Kan may be fastest of all in the early stages, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will encounter a favorable pace scenario on the front end. However, he beat a pretty weak field at Monmouth on Aug. 16, and he’s going to take money in here merely due to the fact that Jason Servis is his trainer. I want to bet Regalian. He actually ran on the same day at Laurel as You’re Killin Me in another division of that N1X allowance race. It’s pretty clear that Regalian participated in the tougher division, as winner Mesotherm is a pretty talented sprinter. Regalian broke sharply that day but got shuffled back through the opening furlongs, eventually finding himself at the back of the pack heading into the far turn. Considering the overall race flow, he actually did well to rally for second. His overall form on wet tracks is somewhat spotty, but he handled it well in the Jerome earlier this year and put in a career-best effort to win by six lengths in the mud at Saratoga two back. If he holds his current form for Tom Morley, I think he’s a top win candidate in this race.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4
 

RACE 8: CONSENSUS THINKING (#8)
I think there are two ways to look at this race. Either you view this as a wide-open field where any of about six or seven horses can win, or you think Consensus Thinking is just better than his rivals. I’m leaning toward the latter camp. While I don’t fully trust this horse, his last effort is just too strong for me to ignore. Some will knock him for only beating maidens, but the truth is that horses like Business Cycle and Allured would arguably be favored in this race, despite having never won. That might have been the toughest field that any of these are exiting – save perhaps Singapore Trader. Consensus Thinking did get an absolutely perfect trip in that win, but he nevertheless was a legitimate winner. I think it’s possible that Chad Brown made an error in judgment when he immediately stretched this horse out in his second start. It’s possible that he’s just wanted to sprint all along, and he’s going to get a chance to prove that hypothesis here. Beyond him, there are many to consider. Singapore Trader is obviously a contender off his solid third-place finish in the Albany. However, that’s the only competitive dirt race that he’s run, and he may have really appreciated the added distance. Dark N Cloud is an interesting claim by Jason Servis, who runs him back in just nine days. He’s always trained very well, but he needs to show more in the afternoon for this new barn.

Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 5,7,10