PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 12 - 9 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 11 - 8
Race 8:   4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   10 - 6 - 2 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: GLOBAL POSITIONING (#5)
The morning-line favorite is Pedro Cerrano, who makes his first start for David Jacobson. It appears that this horse must have been a private purchase after his last start, since the claim put in on him before his last race at Del Mar was voided by the vet. He's run some competitive speed figures and may be able to compete at this level, but I prefer another. Global Positioning seems like the kind of runner that might be able to really turn his form around off the claim. Rudy Rodriguez gets a 100 Trainer Rating with his new claiming acquisitions, and this barn switch could be especially significant for this horse. With the lone exception of one race for Jeremiah Englehart – which he won – this horse has been in stables that don't win at a particularly high rate for the past year or so. Now he gets into a spot where the Pace Projector is predicting that he could be one of the controlling speeds, and I think he can get back to the winner's circle.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7

RACE 4: THE TWO NANCY’S (#6) / SKYLER’S LIL CUTIE (#12)
Youth Gone Wild is the tepid morning-line favorite off the strength of her third-place finish at this level last month. That may have been a slightly tougher field than the one she's meeting here, so I get that she's a contender. However, she's not terribly consistent and her overall body of work doesn't inspire confidence. Given the overall lack of pace in this race, the horse that scares me most is The Two Nancy's. I know she's a bit of a quitter, but this six-furlong distance should be more to her liking than the seven furlongs she was asked to handle last time. The pace of that race was fast (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) and she had a right to get tired late. She’s my top pick, but I also want to try a new face here. Skyler's Lil Cutie doesn't have overwhelming turf pedigree, but she is a half-sister to multiple turf winner Cloud Control. She did take a small step forward last time in her first start for Michelle Nevin, and subsequent improvement with this surface switch could make her a player at a price.

Win: 6,12
Exacta Key Box: 6,12 with 1,4,6,9,10,12

RACE 7: FOR GREATER GLORY (#1)
This might be the most confusing race on the entire card. At first glance, this race looks similar to the $25,000 claimer that was run Sept. 20, but I'm expecting a different result this time. Likely favorite Altar Boy won that day in an impressive effort, but he was claimed out of the race – away from top turf trainer Mike Maker – and transferred to Gregory DiPrima, who gets just a 45 Trainer Rating first off the claim. Lewis Vale tried to take the field wire to wire last time, but he figures to face mroe pace pressure today and I don't trust him to replicate the effort. Instead, I prefer runners coming out of the race won by Abiding Star. Souperfast put in an even effort to be third after chasing the pace, but I'm most interested in For Greater Glory, who was compromised by a moderate pace that held together. Furthermore, I really think a mile was too short for him and he's going to appreciate stretching out to this nine-furlong distance. Even though he's never won on turf, he's run some competitive races on this surface, and he figures to get more pace to close into this time.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,8,11

RACE 8: FIRE AWAY (#4)
The Chad Brown duo of Tombelaine and A Lot figure to take the majority of the play here, but I have some minor issues with both. Tombelaine is obviously pretty talented, but he's really at his best going seven furlongs and I think anything past this distance is stretching him. He may be able to win going a mile here because he's just that good, but I'm skeptical at a short price. I have similar distance concerns about A Lot, especially as he returns from this 11-month layoff. This runner has obviously had some setbacks that have kept him away from the races for this long, and I don't have full confidence that he can get back to the form that carried him to victory in last year's Elusive Quality. Given these reservations with the favorites, I want to take a shot with Fire Away. I had always thought of this horse as one that wants to go longer distances, but recent evidence suggests that the opposite may actually be true. He's run his best races this year at 1 1/16 miles, finishing second in May before closing to be a strong fourth in the Lure Stakes behind Zennor at Saratoga. His two most recent efforts have been dull, but I think he's really going to appreciate this turnback. There appears to be an ample amount of speed in this race for him to close into.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,6 with ALL