by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 9 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 6: 12 - 2 - 9 - 11
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 1/1A - 4
Race 8: 9 - 2 - 8 - 7
RACE 1: KNOCKOUT PUNCH (#5)
Teachable Moment ran the best race of his career off the claim for Maker last time, attending an honest pace and staying on well in the late stages going a distance that may be too far for him. He now he cuts back to 7 furlongs, which should be perfect considering that he handled an even shorter distance three back at Saratoga. He possesses the tactical speed to work out a good trip and just makes plenty of sense as the likely favorite. I’m not really against him, but I think there are others in this field who may offer some value. I would consider horses like Duncastle and Point of Humor, both of whom have had more chances than many others in this spot. Yet they both come into this race with solid form and appear well suited to the 7-furlong trip. They’re all major players, but I want to highlight a longshot who may get somewhat ignored here. Knockout Punch doesn’t look particularly competitive on paper, but I think this gelding has a lot more ability than is apparent. He was actually up close to the pace in the first furlong of his debut before greenly dropping back through pack. However, he regained his stride once he got into the clear for the stretch drive and was running on strongly in the last furlong in a performance that was much stronger than it seems. He didn’t handle the dirt last time, but now he gets back on the right surface and is supposed to appreciate more ground. The series of barn switches and claim by low-profile connections will drive up his price, and I think he has an excellent chance to outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,7,9
RACE 4: KAHRAMANI (#2)
Blame the Thief will probably be favored as he drops way down in class for Rudy Rodriguez off the claim. He’s clearly run fast enough to beat this field and he’s faced far better horses in almost all of his recent starts. However, you have to have some reservations about this runner. He clearly improved on the turf for the Rob Atras barn, but his prior dirt form was pretty mediocre by his standards, so you have to wonder what we’re going to get as he switches back to this surface. Over the past 5 years, Rudy Rodriguez is 4 for 20 (20%, $0.94 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more and switching from turf to dirt, indicating that these runners are often overbet. Furthemore, it’s not as if he possesses much early speed, and the Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed scenario. The best alternative that I can find is Kahramani. This horse didn’t handle the 7 furlongs three back when in the barn of Joe Sharp, but his form may have been tailing off at that time. He really turned things around for Bruce Brown off the claim, nearly holding off a decent horse in Cowboy Rhythm at a similar level on August 30. He then came back at Monmouth last time and got a preposterous trip. After stumbling at the start, he steadied into the clubhouse turn. His rider then commenced a rally at about the half-mile pole, as this horse was sent to make an Arazi-like move to challenge for the lead at the quarter pole. Alas, this horse is no Arazi, but he nevertheless stayed on admirably to be second, an accomplishment considering that wild journey. I don’t think he’s going to mind the cutback, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he could be the one stalking likely speed Brimstone in the early going.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 5: TIZAPRINCESSA (#9)
I’m not offering up anything too clever in pointing out that Tizaprincessa is the horse to beat. This Mike Stidham trainee figures to go off as the favorite as she takes a significant drop in class. She actually faced a pretty good rival back in June when finishing behind Xanthique, so I won’t hold that loss against her. She faded in the late stages at Colonial last time, but she probably didn’t appreciate the stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles and she was also meeting a significantly tougher field. A number of horses have come back out of that race to run well, including So Charming, who finished behind Tizaprincessa yet came to Belmont to finish third in a tough optional claimer. The only minor negative is that she’s competing for a $30,000 tag, but she’s at the end of her 4-year-old season and I think the connections are just trying to place her where she can win. The other horse that I want to use prominently is Recess. This filly got plenty of pace to close into when breaking her maiden against New York-breds last time, and was merely workmanlike in victory. However, I don’t think it would be wise to dismiss her based solely on that effort. Her form prior to that looks a bit spotty, but she had a nightmare of a trip two back at Saratoga when she almost fell approaching the clubhouse turn and was then badly sawed off in the lane. She also didn’t get the most clever ride on June 2 when she arguably could have won. She has more ability than is apparent and might be able to translate that statebred form to this open company spot. She won’t win if Tizaprincessa shows up, but she’s a decent backup to that filly.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,8
Trifecta: 9 with 2 with 1,3,4,8
RACE 7: LONDON HOUSE (#5)
The entry is likely to attract support merely due to the fact that both horses are contenders, but I’m not too fond of either one. Amundson will attempt to step up in class after winning at the N1X level last time, but he wasn’t beating the strongest field. His speed will make him dangerous, but I believe that some others have shown more talent. His entrymate Singapore Trader is a difficult runner to read. It would appear that 6 1/2 furlongs is a bit short of his best distance, so this might just be a prep off the lengthy layoff. Furthermore, aside from a deceptive 10-length romp in an off-the-turf race, he’s never put forth a performance that makes him that formidable against this field. The Caretaker seems like a more reliable option. He won at this level for Ray Handal last time and now makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. This is essentially a lateral move and he’s been in solid form for a few months now. My only reservation is that he seems to have lost much of the early speed that he once possessed so he may need some help up front if he’s to pull off the repeat victory. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with the returning London House. I was a fan of this horse when he was running last winter, and he got quite good at Aqueduct, winning his last two starts by a combined 20 lengths. That 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he recorded back in February remains the best number in this field, and one would assume that he’s improved with natural maturity since then. The layoff is a concern, but the Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll get a great stalking trip in a situation favoring runners on or near the lead.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 6 with ALL
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,4 with 6