by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 8 - 6 - 11
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 9 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 12 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 9 - 10
RACE 3: SWIVEL (#6)
Oneballnostrikes figures to go off at a short price in this race as he drops back in for a tag. Jorge Navarro has been shipping more horses to the NYRA circuit in recent months, with some success. Oneballnostrikes’s greatest strength is his consistency, since this race is riddled with horses who have trouble putting competitive speed figures back-to-back. If he runs back to either of his races at Monmouth for this barn, I think he will be tough to beat. Navarro shipped him to Penn National last time, and while he actually faced some solid horses in that race, he still was pretty disappointing when losing as the 4-5 favorite. He can win here, but there are others capable of running at least as fast as him. Two of those horses are Becker’s Galaxy and Devine Dental, but there’s a real possibility that they hook up in the early going with Monaco on the rail. All three of these perform best when able to secure the early lead, so you would imagine that an honest pace will develop. That certainly doesn’t hurt Oneballnostrikes, but I think it also helps Swivel. When you glance at Swivel’s TimeformUS past performances, you see a lot of blue in the running lines, indicating that he’s been involved in a number of races that featured slow paces. That was certainly the case last time when he had to be taken out of his preferred running style to chase the loose-on-the-lead eventual winner. Sept. 15 was also a day when you wanted to be on the rail, and Swivel was racing in the 2 path throughout. Some may be turned off by this claim, but these connections have had some success on the circuit, and a one-turn mile is perfect for the horse.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL
RACE 6: CHINA RIDER (#3)
If she puts forth her best effort, Gagaoveryou is probably not going to lose this race. The question with this favorite is one of current form since she has lost three straight starts at odds of less than 2-1. Taking a broader view, she hasn’t earned a speed figure that would make her particularly formidable against this crew since February, as she has been laid up a couple of times. That’s not to say that she performed badly over the summer since she was still running competitively against fields that are tougher than this one. I just feel that she’s going to attract support off this barn change, and I’m not convinced that we’re going to see her produce a top effort. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which doesn’t help the favorite. Horses like Awesome Quick, Bow Town Cat, and Sandy Belle figure to show speed, which should help set things up for a closer. I’ve always been a fan of China Rider, and I think this is the perfect spot for her. I don’t care that much about her recent dirt performances, but they at least demonstrate that she’s regained her solid form from earlier in the summer. A two-turn experiment did not work out at Saratoga, but prior to that, she was running speed figures in turf sprints that make her every bit the equal of Gagaoveryou. Furthermore, she is usually aided by a little give in the ground, as she relished a “good” turf course when she beat N1X foes in June and even ran pretty well when stepped up in class behind the talented Fear No Evil in her subsequent start. Joel Rosario is a great fit for this closing sprinter. The other horses I want to consider are Tearless and Alabama Bound, both getting some class relief while turning back in distance. The former has never gone this short on turf, but she appears to be in solid form, and the latter has effectively sprinted in the past and appears to be coming into this race the right way.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,12
RACE 7: I LOVE JAXSON (#4)
Five Star Bunt will scratch after graduating out of this allowance condition on Wednesday, and Foolish Ghost is likely to come out given that he participated in that same race. Those defections should make Born for the Storm the favorite. This gelding has run faster than his competitors on a number of occasions, and he figures to take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. The seven-furlong distance of this race is also better for him than the shorter trip last time. On the other hand, I have some doubts about the speed figures for that Sept. 29 affair, and it concerns me that he appears to have lost what little early speed he once possessed. I want to try to beat him with I Love Jaxson at a slightly better price. He returned from a 2 1/2-month layoff last time, and I thought he ran better than his fourth-place finish might indicate. He was unusually keen in the early stages with the addition of blinkers, and he was running up on horses’ heels heading into the far turn. Dylan Davis had no choice but to wait for running room coming to the top of the stretch, which allowed the winner to get the jump on him. I thought this horse finished well once in the clear, and I think he can step forward off that performance. Furthermore, there is not a ton of early speed in this race, so he could use that newfound early aggression to obtain a more forward position.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
RACE 9: ZEKE (#3)
This is one of the most interesting races of the day, as there are 3-year-olds converging from a variety of directions. My main opinion is that I don’t want the horses that have been running in cheaper age-restricted claiming races on this circuit through the summer. The only exception to that viewpoint is perhaps Coltandmississippi, who had previously proven himself against tougher company on the turf and was clearly superior to his rivals when he dropped in class last time. On the other hand, he’s getting claimed away from a hot barn and is stepping up in class, so I want to consider others. Zap Daddy might be the horse to beat. Even though he’s failed to hit the board in 6 straight races since his debut victory, he had steadily improved for the Mike Maker barn through the summer. His last effort at Saratoga on Sep. 1 was obviously his best, as he didn’t finish far behind some decent N1X allowance horses. Since then he’s been gelded and transferred into Todd Pletcher’s barn and the new connections spot him realistically. I’m not in love with him overall, but I do recognize that he is probably the most likely winner. Stock Trade is another worth including as he drops out of optional claiming races. He was disappointing as the favorite at Monmouth last time, but all of his recent efforts have come against older horses so he should find this to be a somewhat easier spot. These three seem like the most reliable options. I’m definitely using them, but I want to take a shot with Zeke at what figures to be a much more enticing price. This lightly-raced gelding returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Mike Stidham. While this barn has had limited success on the NYRA circuit, it is noteworthy Stidham does exceptional work off layoffs. Over the past five years, he is 16 for 54 (30 percent, $3.34 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on the turf. Zeke looks slower than his rivals, but all of those races came as either a 2-year-old or early-season 3-year-old. He has a right to have improved in the intervening months, and I think he actually showed some ability in those early races. He was very visually impressive when he won his second start at Fair Grounds in December. He made a wide, sweeping move off the turf and was game to hold sway late over a field of some quality. He never showed that same turf of foot in the Black Gold Stakes in March, but something might have happened there as he was off for a long time after that. He’s drilled steadily at Fair Hill since returning to the worktab, and I think this is the right class level for him at this point in time.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,9,10