by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 9 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   9 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 9:   4 - 6 - 9 - 3

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: MINUS TWO (#2)
It turns out that Artic Storm Cat, the rare white thoroughbred, can actually run a little bit. He’s steadily improved over the course of his last two starts, and did pretty well to get up for third last time despite making a wide run off the far turn. If he repeats that effort, he’s the most likely winner of this race, but he does not figure to offer much value this time. I suppose a horse like Brooklyn Speights can also win, but he’s had his chances. I want to get a little more creative in this wide-open race, so I’m taking a shot with Minus Two. I know his lone turf start at Saratoga looks terrible, since he was beaten almost 15 lengths by today’s favorite. However, I think you can make some major excuses. It was his first start in nearly eight months, and he did not get the greatest trip. It’s never easy to break from the outside post position in a 12-horse field, though he did manage to save a reasonable amount of ground on the turns. He was following Artic Storm Cat into the stretch, but Luis Reyes sent him inside of horses and he wound up running into a ton of traffic, getting stuck behind one of the stopping early leaders. He lost all of his momentum while in trouble for about an eighth of a mile, so the final margin of defeat is exaggerated. This horse has some turf pedigree, and has a right to take a real step forward this time.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,8,9
Trifecta: 6,9 with 4,6,8,9 with 2

 

RACE 4: MASCARELLO (#9)
The two runners to fear in this spot are Hello Holiday and Escape Velocity. The former has disappointed in his last two starts against N1X allowance company, but now he’s getting a realistic drop in class. Escape Velocity has been tried on the dirt in each of his last two starts, but now gets back to what appears to be his preferred surface. He was facing better horses in his last grass start back in July, but he didn’t do that much running. I think both of these horses can be defeated at short prices. My top pick is Mascarello. I know that he’s not really a winning type at 1-for-21 lifetime, but only 7 of those starts have come on turf, which is obviously his best surface. He ran exceptionally well two back, making the first move into a fast pace that fell apart. Then last time, he was racing in tight quarters for much of the stretch drive and had no clear path until the final sixteenth of a mile. He would have finished much closer that day with an outside run. He appears to be in great form right now, and this distance is perfect for him.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,8
Trifecta: 9 with 5,8 with ALL

 

RACE 5: SPECIAL DIVIDEND (#1)
Court Dancer is a deserving favorite as she drops out of a poor run against a much tougher group in the Union Avenue at Saratoga. Her prior form was fine, and she’s probably just getting back to the right level for the always dangerous Jason Servis. She can win at a short price, but I prefer Special Dividend, who may should offer more value. This filly really came alive over the inner track at Aqueduct last season, winning an allowance race before finishing third behind the talented Picco Uno, who would go on to win the Union Avenue that Court Dancer exits. Furthermore, Chris Englehart has fantastic numbers with horses switching from turf to dirt sprints. Over the past five years, he is 23 for 82 (29%, $2.71 ROI) with that move.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4

 

RACE 7: DANCETRACK (#2)
The two runners that figure to go off at the shortest prices are both dropping in class, and I think you have to respect them. Still Krz did not run particularly well last time, but he was contesting a reasonably fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs). He’s claimed out of that spot by Linda Rice, who has fantastic numbers off the claim. However, she gets him from Jason Servis, who is himself one of the best claiming trainers in the game, so I’m not sure this is a positive move. Bluegrass Singer is the other major contender. Chris Englehart picked him up out of a mediocre effort at the $50,000 level at Saratoga. Perhaps he didn’t care for the wet track that day, and now he gets some class relief. I’ll use them both, but I want to give a shot to first-time dirt horse Dance Track as my top selection. This is a bit of a guess, since you really don’t know if this horse can handle dirt. However, it is worth noting that David Jacobson is moving him up in class as he tries this surface for the first time. Over the past five years, Jacobson is an outstanding 14 for 43 (33%, $3.04 ROI) first off the claim with horses switching from turf to dirt sprints. Furthermore, Dancetrack actually has some pedigree for this surface and he figures to get a fair pace to close into.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,7

 

RACE 9: SOUTHERN UNION (#4)
Little Schmo has run races that would put him in the winner's circle here, but his return from the layoff at Parx was awful, so I find him difficult to trust. Here and There and Thaddeus both won races at the N2L conditional claiming level last time, but did so against pretty weak fields. I’ll use them, but I want to try to beat those shorter prices with Southern Union. I don’t want to hold his last race against him because he just didn’t get the mile distance and is clearly better going shorter on the dirt. His race two back was pretty good, since he set a fast pace and earned a field-best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that performance would probably beat this field, and he’s going to be a decent price.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7,9