PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 1- 10 - 5
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 10:   4 - 1 - 12 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 5: ACCESSIBLE (#2)
There are horses dropping out of maiden special weight company to consider, but they have some questions to answer. The most logical of those is Holy Emperor, who lost by a nose at the maiden special weight level at Saratoga on August 1, and is now dropping back in for a tag. However, this colt has done his best work at the 11-furlong distance and hasn’t been quite as effective going shorter. He might be able to beat this field if he repeats the race he ran at a mile on June 20, but I didn’t want to take a shor price on him. Till Then is perhaps more intriguing, though a bigger wild card. He last raced in November 2018 against some stiff competition on dirt. He’s making his turf debut off the lengthy layoff, but he’s certainly bred for this surface, being by Point of Entry out of a dam who handled turf. I’m using both of them, but I’m most interested in a horse who has already competed at this level. Accessible finished behind today’s rival Vicarage in a similar spot last time, but I thought the Mike Maker trainee had the much tougher trip. Accessible was squeezed back at the start and found himself towards the back of the pack. That was not where you wanted to be in a race that was dominated towards the front end. Due to that slow pace, Accessible got rank down the backstretch and Jose Lezcano allowed him to make a premature rush past Vicarage up into a stalking position. Moves at that point in the race rarely work out, and Accessible predictably tired in the stretch. I think he’s going to get a much different kind of trip under Jose Ortiz here, and I expect him to take a step forward now in his third start for Mike Maker.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7

RACE 7: CHARLIE MCCOY (#4)
I’m not thrilled with the likely short prices in this race. Fort Worth figures to be a short price again after he was beaten as the 3-10 favorite at this level last time. While he got a somewhat tentative ride that day, I didn’t like what I saw from him in the stretch and wonder if he’s starting to tail off following a strong return this summer. Built to Suit is even less trustworthy after putting in an uncharacteristically poor performance last month. Notably, he was entered for the $40,000 tag and scratched out of the same race Fort Worth exits. Given his performance last time, this lower level is where he belongs these days. After the scratch of my original top pick Bears Mafia, I'm elevating Charlie McCoy, who I'm perfectly content to endorse in this spot. This 5-year-old is more than capable of winning a race at this level on his best day. The major question is whether he can get back to top form as he returns from a lengthy layoff. While this isn't exactly Michelle Nevin's forte, Charlie McCoy finds himself in a good spot off the layoff. He could play out as the controlling speed without Bears Mafia in the mix, and seven furlongs has been his best distance.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 9: AMERICANUS (#3)
Money Moves is clearly the horse to beat as he moves back into allowance company after contesting the Kentucky Derby last time. That classic was always going to be a tall order for this lightly-raced runner and he just wasn’t up to the challenge. However, he’s supposed to be tough to beat here if he merely runs back to his prior two efforts. That said, I’m concerned that he might be overbet. He was aided by a rail bias when he won his second start at Gulfstream in March. And while he ran much faster when losing that photo finish to Prioritize at Saratoga in July, that 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned doesn’t exactly make him a standout in this field. He’s the horse to beat, but I have no interest in betting him at close to even-money odds. I can understand making a case for some of the older horses in this field – particularly Expert, who has plenty of prior speed figures that are faster than Money Moves – but I’m most interested in some of the other 3-year-olds. Three Technique could appreciate the switch back to dirt after not really stepping forward in a couple of turf experiments. Yet the best alternative to the favorite might be Americanus. This runner returns from a layoff while making his first start off a trainer switch to Shug McGaughey. He was heading in the right direction for his prior barn, matching Money Moves’ best TimeformUS Speed Figure – 111 – when he finished third in the Unbridled behind Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr. Post. McGaughey doesn’t have the strongest stats in this situation, but this horse has reportedly been working in company with his 4-year-old star runner Performer. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL

RACE 10: ENGRAVE (#1)
A couple of runners in this field have positive turf experience, and they’re likely to attract most of the support. Scarlett Sky has finished second in both career starts, and was likely beaten by a pair of talented runners in Public Sector and Space Launch. He’s obviously a contender, but I would have liked to see him take more of a step forward in his second start after his strong debut. Secret Potion is one of two runners for Chad Brown and could go off as the favorite as he drops out of the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. He was just in over his head that day as the local horses had the upper hand. While he ran well in his debut at Saratoga, he had a perfect trip setting a slow pace that day. I’m using him, but I actually prefer Chad Brown’s other horse Engrave. This son of Flatter gets on turf for the first time, and his sire isn’t the best turf influence. However, this colt is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winning turf horse Beach Patrol, and one other sibling to race also showed a strong preference for turf. He showed ability in his first couple of dirt stars, and that bullet workout over the Oklahoma course up at Saratoga gives me confidence that he’s going to take to this surface. He’s my top selection, but there are some others to consider. Perhaps the most intriguing horse in this field is the well-bred Hachure. This son of Tapit is out of the productive dam Hachita, who has dropped Group 1 winner Announce and Group 1-placed Mexican Gold among her many winning turf foals. The fact that Bill Mott has secured Irad Ortiz for this colt’s debut may be meaningful.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,12