by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 9 - 8 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 10 - 7 - 12 - 4
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 6 - 9 - 11
RACE 2: JAZZY LADY (#1)
While I acknowledge that this is a tougher field than she faced in her debut, I think Jazzy Lady is likely to take a step forward in her second career start. Ray Handal has yet to win with a first-time starter in his training career, but this filly came pretty close at 9-1 in her debut. She broke a bit slowly and saved ground after that, but found herself held up behind a pretty slow pace on the far turn. She was running on well late in a race where few others made closing runs. There are some intriguing first-time starters to consider, but I’d rather go with the experienced runner in this situation. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Positive Power at a square price. She didn’t get the most comfortable run through the lane last time in that same race and might do better if Dylan Davis is able to steer her into the clear this time. Two fillies who are likely to attract plenty of support are Las Ramblas and Love of My Heart, both of whom are stretching out for the first time after debuting in sprints at Saratoga. Las Ramblas didn’t take a cent as she was dismissed at 17-1, which is highly unusual for Wesley Ward. She ran on evenly and has some pedigree to stretch out. Love of My Heart is probably the more dangerous of that pair, since she faced open company in her debut and was not disgraced in finishing a solid fourth. She has a pedigree that says she should prefer routes, and she’s dropping into restricted company, but I’m always a little wary of horses stretching out on the turf, especially at short prices.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,6,8,9
RACE 4: SWAYED (#10)
Lovely La La is probably going to be the favorite here by default. She’s had four chances to break through this N2X level and has hit the board every time without winning. While few of her rivals can match that sort of consistency, you have to wonder if she’s just the type of horse who always finds at least one rival to beat her. I will concede that 7 furlongs is probably Lovely La La’s best distance, but she’s not just the kind of horse that I want to key on top at a short price. The others who have been competing at this level are pretty hard to separate. Sadie Lady ran well against N1X company, but her one turf start at this level was disappointing. Purrageous Dyna has been competing against open company for the past year. She was good enough to compete at this level last year, but her current form is hard to read and she might want more ground than this. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Swayed as she returns to the NYRA circuit. This filly ran well over sprint distances back in 2017 when she was in the George Weaver barn. She missed over a year, only returning this past winter at Gulfstream. She got in two starts on turf for Patrick Biancone, both against open company, and she had absolutely disastrous trips on each occasion. She got pinned down on the rail and shuffled back multiple times in both of those starts, making her finishing positions almost irrelevant to me. Now she’s returning late in her 6-year-old year for a barn that can be dangerous and she’s back at the right class level. She’s going to be a big price and I think she has a real chance to upset this field.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,5,6,7,11,12
RACE 7: LEITONE (#4)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Leitone in this spot. The fact of the matter is that this horse is probably just a little better on dirt than he is on turf, so I can excuse his two losses on the grass, both of which came against tougher company. He beat a few common rivals in this race when he won that Aug. 30 race at Saratoga at this level, earning an impressive 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He only was assigned a 106 when he won against much cheaper company back on June 16, but he easily could have fun faster that day – a lot faster – had he not been geared down an eighth of a mile from the wire, giving up perhaps around 5 lengths of his sizable lead. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and he’s already proven that he’s extremely dangerous when allowed to control the pace. Unless he suddenly regresses, he seems like a perfectly logical winner. I just can’t get behind any of the alternatives. Supreme Aura is somewhat interesting off the claim by Chris Englehart, but he couldn’t get to Leitone at Saratoga and his overall form is a bit more inconsistent than my top selection. However, the slight turnback to a one-turn 1 1/16 miles should help him and he figures to be a square price. Control Group obviously has back races that would make him a threat, but his recent form leaves many questions. He’s been in some top barns, but perhaps he can turn things around for Jeremiah Englehart. I’m somewhat against Zulu, who has had some trips but just hasn’t run a competitive speed figure in quite a while. It was pretty bizarre that he took so much money at Saratoga last time, but he didn’t run to that support and has just generally been a disappointment for a barn that usually gets horses to deliver.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 2,6 with 2,3,5,6,8
RACE 8: MADE YOU LOOK (#6)
Bound for Nowhere is probably the horse to beat as he makes his return from a third trip over to Royal Ascot. If this horse brings his best effort, he’s going to be very difficult for this field to handle. While some may be concerned that he hasn’t won since October 2018, he actually ran a sensational race off the bench at Keeneland in April, losing a heartbreaker in the Shakertown when just run down by the extremely talented sprinter Imprimis. Bound for Nowhere has been effective going shorter than this, but he’s also won as far as a mile, so I don’t think the 7 furlongs will pose a major problem. The only minor concern is the fact that he’s running in this race at all. Wesley Ward has never been afraid to get ambitious with this runner, bringing him back off layoffs in some tough spots. I wonder if him running in an optional claimer is an indication that he might need a start off this particular layoff. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer his main rival Made You Look, who should be a slightly better price. Some may not remember that this horse actually began his career in sprint races for Todd Pletcher. He was second in his debut going 5 furlongs and then won his next outing over the very good Master Merion going 6 furlongs. He clearly has the speed to win going this 7-furlong trip and the fact that he’s failed to finish off his one-mile races that strongly in recent starts indicates that this turnback may be exactly what he needs. Furthermore, while I don’t want to put too much emphasis on the horse-for-course angle, he did run two of the best races of his career at Belmont Park in 2018.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 4,8 with 4,7,8
RACE 9: CLAMOR (#1)
I’m not thrilled with the favorites in this spot, though I acknowledge they can win. Beach Front is getting a needed drop in class after facing maiden special weight foes twice since returning from a layoff. His comeback effort at Saratoga was awful, but he did run a bit better going a mile last time. It remains to be seen if turning back again will help him or hurt him, but at least he’s run a recent speed figure that puts him squarely in the mix. The other horse likely to attract support is Plebe, and I have some concerns about him. He showed promise as a 2-year-old, but then was off for a long time. He returned for James Ferraro in a maiden special weight after getting entered and scratched for a tag and he ran on evenly without threatening. That race received a high Beyer, but the TimeformUS Speed Figure is fairly low. Ultimately, I think the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, so he may not have any major figure edge on this field. He also now comes off another layoff and shows up for a new barn, which are all red flags. I’d rather focus on some lightly-raced runners with upside. One of those is Silver Token, who improved second time out at Saratoga, as so many Linda Rice second time starters tend to do. He was still fairly green in the early going that day, but he ran on decently in the stretch once he got into the clear. If he takes another step forward he might be able to contend with this group. However, my top pick is Clamor. This 3-year-old returns from an 8-month layoff, having made just one prior start at Gulfstream Park last winter. While he lost by 10 lengths that day, the effort wasn’t nearly as bad as it seems. He was sluggish and reserved in the early going, but he was really running in the stretch despite the fact that the race featured an extremely slow pace and swift closing splits. Now he’s coming back as a new gelding for a trainer who has had plenty of success of lengthy layoffs recently. He’s reportedly been working well and it’s a good sign to see Castellano take the mount.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,6,9,11