by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   9 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 11 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   12 - 9 - 5 - 7

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: HOT DIGGITY (#2)
Steam Engine is likely to go off at a short price once again as he bids to win his maiden in his third career start after losing as the 3-5 choice last time out. He did benefit from riding an advantageous rail last time on Sept. 19, but it’s also worth noting that the winner saved ground as well and came through inside of him late. That horse, Strive for a Cure, returned to finish a good third in a tough edition of the Sleepy Hollow last weekend, so the form of the race holds up. I’m not way against him, but I prefer others who figure to offer more value. One of those is Wild Boar, who ran fairly well in what appeared to be a strong maiden heat at Saratoga in his debut. You could also make a strong case for Show Prince, who rushed up to chase an honest pace in his first start earlier this month. I'll use both in some respect, but I’m most interested in another one of the many second-time starters. Hot Diggity moves up in class for Jeremiah Englehart, who gets a 97 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses moving from maiden-claiming to maiden special weight events. Despite being risked for the tag first time out, he actually met a decent group Sept. 7. Winner Bustin Hoffman has gone on to finish third in the Bertram F. Bongard and second in the Sleepy Hollow, while runner-up Saloon Girl won her next start, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 17 points and her Beyer by 25 points. Additionally, the fourth- and fifth- place finishers returned to win, one on turf and the other on dirt, both with much faster performances. Hot Diggity has some pedigree since his dam was a somewhat talented New York-bred mare. I think this gelding is very likely to move forward today.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 1,3,5,6,7
 

RACE 5: BOURBON N RYE (#7)
The scratch of the entry makes this race much easier for my top selection. Bourbon N Rye made his debut Aug. 30, and I thought he actually ran quite well within the context of that race. The early pace was very fast, set by the speedy Dark Ops. That horse returned to win his next start in a runaway while earning an impressive speed figure. So, why did Bourbon N Rye regress behind Ready to Escape on Sept. 27? I believe he got the wrong ride that day. This Mark Hennig trainee responded so well to aggressive tactics two back, so I was disappointed that Javier Castellano was so intent on rating him last time out. He never seemed to respond to those tactics and threw in the towel at the quarter pole. This time, with David Cohen aboard, I think we’re going to see Bourbon N Rye clear off to the front. There is not much early speed to his inside, so I’m hoping he can set a moderate tempo and see out the seven-furlong distance.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6
 

RACE 9: GOSILENTLY (#12)
Kulin Rock is undoubtedly the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart, who is also now the owner of this runner. If he puts forth a top effort, he is likely to win. While he did lose as the favorite when he dropped down to this level last time, I thought he ran pretty well. Manny Franco had to alter course in the lane, yet he did so seamlessly, and Kulin Rock had every chance to catch the winner in the final eighth of a mile. He finished about 3 lengths ahead of today’s rival Gosilently, but I thought that one had a marginally tougher trip. Gosilently had to race 3-wide around both turns after breaking from a wide post position. I’ll admit that Kulin Rock probably ran the better race that day, but I think Gosilently has improved following that effort. His next outing on Oct. 3 really impressed me, since he had to be used hard to make the lead from his outside post position, which is a distinct disadvantage going two turns on the inner course. The early pace of that race was fast (indicated by red color-coded pace figures), and I thought he stayed on very gamely in the final furlong when the eventual winner County Court came to him. Gosilently has a reputation for being a bridesmaid, but I much of that is due to him coming out on the wrong end of a few key photo finishes. This horse is actually pretty game when he gets into a fight to the finish, and he showed that tenacity last time out. Furthermore, if he is shy about winning, Joel Rosario is the right rider, since he has a knack for getting these horses to hit the wire in front. This gelding just shows up every single time and he’s arguably running some of the best races of his career right now for a sharp barn. I’ll use him with the favorite, and I’ll also throw in Bobby G, who should improve getting on the right surface, and Lil Commissioner, who may want firm turf.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,5,7,9