PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 1 - 9
Race 2:   8 - 3 - 12 - 4
Race 3:   7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 8 - 4 - 12
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 6:   9 - 8 - 1 - 10
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   2 - 8 - 6 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: HOLLYWOOD CAT (#3)
There is a pair of dangerous Brad Cox trainees in this race. Of the two, I slightly prefer Lion in Wait due in large part to this barn's awesome numbers with horses coming off maiden wins. She needs to improve on her maiden-claiming score last time, but she certainly has a right to do so. Questeq must also be included. She's had her chances recently in similar spots but has continued to run well. They're all in my play, but my top pick is Hollywood Cat. This filly never really got a fair chance to run last time, as she worked out a very uncomfortable trip, racing in tight quarters, sandwiched between horses for most of the race. She was then squeezed back at the top of the stretch when a tiring runner bumped her and basically lost all her momentum. This filly had improved over the summer, and I think she's had legitimate excuses in her last two starts. Now she drops in class and stretches out to a more appropriate distance.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,9

RACE 4: OLD FLORIDA (#7)
The horse to beat appears to be Reality Queen, who has run fairly well in two starts against maiden special weight company and now drops in class to face maiden claimers. I'll use her, but I think there are some other less-obvious contenders who deserve a look. My top pick is Old Florida, who makes her second start after splitting a field in her debut at Delaware Park. I thought she was ridden somewhat tentatively that day, as she wasn't set down and asked for her best until late in the stretch, at which point she was attempting to make a run between horses. The race was dominated by the front-runner, and the closers didn't really get involved. Tom Proctor has very good numbers with maidens dropping in class. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 42 (31 percent, $2.07 ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company in turf routes.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,8,11,12

RACE 5: ROAD TO PERFECTION (#7)
The two fillies who are going to take all the money are Tapella and Full House. Tapella won her maiden in her third attempt last time, winning a hard-fought photo finish over the turf horse Bogulator. She certainly has a right to keep improving, but she's not the kind of runner I want at a short price. Full House's maiden win was aided by a rail bias, but she followed that up with a solid run against stakes company last winter. She probably has more raw ability than Tapella, but I'm not sure what to make of her as she returns from the layoff. If I'm going to take a layoff runner in this race, I want it to be Road to Perfection. I know that she looks a bit slower than the aforementioned runners, but I like that she's getting back to one turn on the main track. Furthermore, her last start over Aqueduct's inner track was not nearly as bad as it seems given the slow pace of that race. David Donk has decent layoff numbers, and I think this filly is slightly better than it appears.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 2,5,6 with 2,3,4,5,6 with 7

RACE 6: ELOWEASEL (#9)
If Munchkin Money repeats her last effort, the others are probably running for second. She earned a massive 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that win, as she absolutely crushed a group of allowance foes. She's the horse to beat, but she has to cut back to six furlongs, which is new territory for her. I'll use her, but I want to take a small shot against her with Eloweasel. She, too, is probably a bit better at seven furlongs, but she's run reasonably well at this distance. I thought she was bit unlucky last time, when she got blind-switched between horses coming to the eighth pole, as she had to let the winner make first run before she got into the clear. She can be a little inconsistent, but she's definitely a win candidate if she holds that form.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,7,8,10

RACE 9: CALL THE CAT (#2)
There are many ways to go in this intriguing finale. Chad Brown starts a pair of runners making their debuts. Neither one has overwhelming turf pedigree, but you still must respect any lightly raced horse out of this barn. The likely favorite is Lil Commissioner, who really took to turf last time, running a vastly improved 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure while just failing to get by the winner in the final strides. That kind of effort would win most races at this level, and he deserves respect. However, at a much bigger price, I have to take a shot with the first-time turfer Call the Cat. He barely lifted a hoof in his debut, but there is strong evidence that he will take to this new surface. His sire, Creative Cause, is a 15 percent turf sire, and there's plenty of turf pedigree in the second generation of his dam's family. She is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Sweet Talker and Grade 3 turf winner Silver Medallion.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,8,10