PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   12 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 6:   4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 7:   8 - 7 - 1A - 3
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 11 - 8
Race 10:   11 - 6 - 4 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 4: FIRST CONSTITUTION (#2)
Speaker’s Corner figures to be a short-priced favorite as he drops in class out of the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, which was a very ambitious spot second off the layoff. This colt showed plenty of talent as a 2-year-old, and appeared to finally be fulfilling that early promise when he made an impressive return to the races at Saratoga this summer. He drew off from an allowance field in stylish fashion, and then was thrown into the deep end of the pool next time. However, that Aug. 14 allowance race isn’t looking quite as strong in retrospect, as a few runners have come out of that race to disappoint. Speaker’s Corner does deserve another chance over a route distance, but his connections are curiously adding blinkers, adding another layer of uncertainty. At a very short price, I want to find an alternative. And I think there’s a good in First Constitution. This Todd Pletcher trained 4-year-old just looked like he needed to shake the rust off when he returned from a long layoff at Saratoga, which also marked his North American debut. He broke slowly and was never involved that day. Yet he was much more professional next time out at this same level. He broke better and was in a good position on the backstretch before getting steadied sharply when cut off by the leader. He did well to overcome that trouble to finish a very game third. This colt obviously has some talent and I think he’s a serious rival to the favorite.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,6

RACE 5: SHINE (#12)
If this race stays on the turf, Missy Greer figures to go favored for Danny Gargan. She attracted some support to get bet down to 6-1 in her debut, and she ran fairly well that day. She broke a step slowly and found herself chasing the pace while racing 4-wide on the far turn. She made a nice move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out late. She’s bred to appreciate added ground as a half-sister to Belmont Stakes runner-up Gronkowski, and Danny Gargan’s runners tend to do better with a run under their belts. I slightly prefer to some others with turf experience. I suppose Miss You Ella could do better second time out, but she was bet in her debut and just looked sluggish throughout. Anador is a little more intriguing as she makes her U.S. debut following four starts in France. Yet Christophe Clement doesn’t have the best stats with first time imports. I’m going in a different direction with Shine. This filly was intended for turf in her debut and stayed in when the race got washed off the grass. I thought she was a little interesting that day based on some smooth morning workouts, but she looked uncomfortable over the dirt in the afternoon. She was striding out like a turf horse and I made the note to wait for her on grass. Now she gets the chance over what should be her preferred surface, and she has some pedigree for it. Jimmy Creed is a decent 11% turf route sire, and the dam is out of multiple turf winner Marieval. Bill Mott has a positive ROI with 2-year-old maidens switching from dirt to turf.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,5,9

RACE 9: PULSATE (#5)
Chad Brown appears to have a firm grasp on this Oyster Bay Stakes, even after the scratch of Flavius, who could have vied for favoritism. Value Proposition figures to go favored as he cuts back in distance after easily winning the Red Bank last time out at Monmouth. He put in a solid effort going this distance when he just missed on the Elusive Quality earlier in the year, so he can handle the trip. He also has really improved his tactical speed this year, so he figures to be unaffected by pace from this outside post position. The biggest concern with this horse is his tendency to lug in, as he sometimes can be difficult to ride. I prefer Brown's other runner Emaraaty. I love the idea of this horse cutting back to a one-turn 7 furlongs. His turn of foot seems to be most potent over shorter distances, and he concentrated on 7-furlong races as a younger horse in Europe. He was a bit of a disappointment upon coming over to this country, but he had a poor setup in his race back in April. I don't expect him to get much of a pace setup here, especially after scratches, but I'm hoping that Javier Castellano can get him a little more involved in the early going. After scratches, I changed around my picks and put Pulsate on top. His connections made a tactical error last time when they elected not to use his early speed in the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational, and it probably cost him the race. This time, after the scratch of Ballydooley, he is supposed to find himself on the front end, or at least right up on the pace stalking Made You Look. I'm not concerned about him getting 7 furlongs since he's handled this distance in the past, and he typically runs well with a little bit of give in the ground. This horse rarely gets the respect that he deserves due to the low-profile barn, so he figures to be a square price.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,8,11
Trifecta: 5 with 4,11 with 3,4,8,11,12

RACE 10: PALS ALLY (#11)
I don’t have a particularly strong take on this race, so I just want to highlight a longshot that I find mildly interesting. I won’t be surprised when one of the first time starters wins. Eudaimonia is perhaps the most appealing since she has enough pedigree and goes out for Rob Atras, who has had some success with firsters this year. Rudy Rodriguez has a pair of debuting runners, but neither one really has a dirt sprint pedigree. I want to go in a different direction with Pals Ally. This filly debuted for Roy Lerman at Saratoga and lost all chance at the start when she was checked and shuffled back to last. That was a race dominated by the talented Classy Edition and this filly, clearly well beaten, was basically eased home from the quarter pole to the wire. They tried turf in her next start and she again had issues coming out of the gate, as a rival dramatically veered into her path soon after the start. She was outrun after that, but did do some running late despite not possessing much turf pedigree. She’s bred to be better on this surface as a half-sister to dirt sprinter Saratoga Pal. And now she’s going out for that runner’s trainer Chris Englehart, who is 9 for 34 (26%, $2.40 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt sprints over the past 5 years.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 3,4,6,9