PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   11 - 12 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 4:   7 - 10 - 1 - 9
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 7:   8 - 3 - 4 - 13
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 7 - 14 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 1: HIGHWAY BOUND (#6)
The two first time starters drawn towards the inside figure to attract most of the support here. Digital Future is by Street Boss, who wins with 16% of his juvenile debut starters. The dam failed to win in 4 starts, achieving her best result going a mile on dirt. The only sibling to race is dirt winner Striking Speed, and the dam is a half-sister to Mask, so this seems like an appropriate spot. Furthermore, Chad Brown is 11 for 35 (31%, $2.03 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in dirt sprints at Belmont over the past 5 years. The works at Monmouth look solid, and it would be no surprise if this one is ready to fire on debut. Nepotism should also attract support. This son of Union Rags is out of a dam who achieved her only career victory going a mile on synthetic, but was perhaps best on turf. This colt's two half-siblings are both dirt winners, topped by Canteen. This horse has reportedly been working well. However, Jonathan Thomas is 0 for 21 with 2-year-old first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. I prefer experience in this situation, and I want to give another chance to Highway Bound. This colt obviously didn’t do any running in his debut, but I don’t think that effort is quite as poor as it seems. He broke slowly and was actually traveling well in the early stages before just giving up at the quarter pole. The margin of defeat was large, but his rider really didn’t persevere with him late. He was working well prior to that start, and he’s bred to do much better as a son of multiple Grade 1 winner Seventh Street.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5

RACE 5: HARDCORE FOLKLORE (#3)
Wushu Warrior seems like the horse to beat as he tries to win back-to-back races at this level. However, he benefited from a speed-favoring track that appeared to be favoring rail runners when he won on Sep. 25. He obviously has prior form that would make him tough and he could be the controlling speed once again. I just didn’t want to take him as the favorite after he went off at 6-1 last time. The best alternative that I can find is Hardcore Folklore. This 4-year-old has perhaps been facing weaker company at Monmouth, but the claim by Wayne Potts seems meaningful. Potts is a remarkable 31 for 141 (22%, $2.26 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. Furthermore, this horse was sent out by a 5% trainer last time, and he actually ran a decent race, albeit with a less than stellar ride. He was taken 4-wide into the first turn as no attempt was made to save ground. He then dropped back on the backstretch before again moving wide into the lane before flattening out. That was going a mile and he’s always been best at shorter distances, so he should benefit from the cutback. I prefer him to the other runners who are likely to take money, including Deep Sea, whose form has been tailing off even for the Orlando Noda stable.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,8,9
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,2,4,9

RACE 7: SWEET KISSES (#8)
This race remains pretty interesting even after getting rained off the turf. On dirt, Fiftyshays Ofgreen and My Sweet Wife both figure to attract support. The former makes her first start off a trainer switch to Linda Rice, but I’m a little concerned about the turnback in distance for her. She strikes me as a filly that relishes routes, so even this 7 furlongs could be a little sharp for her. My Sweet Wife does make some sense after breaking her maiden at this trip in an other off-the-turf affair. However, she is stepping up into a tougher spot and was entered for turf again. Among those who were intended for grass, I’m most interested in Sweet Kisses. It doesn’t appear that there will be a ton of speed among those who figure to remain in a dirt version of this race, so she could find herself on or near the lead through moderate early fractions. While she has improved on turf recently, her career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure (102) came in her second career start sprinting on dirt. At first glance it seems like her form ailed off after that, but she had some excuses, particularly when she returned in February at Oaklawn Park. She did not get the best ride that day, as she got buried inside and lost all momentum in traffic in upper stretch. I think she can still run on the main track, and this appears to be a favorable spot for her. At a bigger price, I would also use Madam Maclean underneath. While she's only raced on turf, she's bred to handle dirt as a daughter of Maclean's Music and a half-sister to dirt stakes winner Tres Borrachos.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,13,16
Trifecta: 8 with 3,4,13 with 3,4,9,13,16

RACE 10: JUDGE ALEXANDER (#5)
This is another race that should hold together pretty well coming off the turf and being run over the main track. Tercero would have been favored on turf, and he’s probably still the horse to beat on the dirt. His dirt form is solid, as he ran fast races as a 2-year-old, and confirmed that he was back in form when fourth in a strong maiden event at Saratoga two back. I’d be most worried about the distance. While he handled a route on the turf last time, routing on dirt can be slightly more demanding. Furthermore, he may encounter a wet track, and he has performed better over dry going in the past. The main track only entrants are obviously worth considering, though I feel that Top of the Mint and Kingfish have had their chances. The former is also questionable going this far, and Kingfish has just been slow in all of his prior starts. I’m more interested in a newer face, so I’m taking a shot with Judge Alexander, who was entered for turf. This horse actually ran a decent race in his debut. He was off slowly but was making up some ground in deep stretch. He was still beaten over 12 lengths, but he only finished 3 lengths behind Tercero and that was a fast race. Furthermore, Raven Rocks came out of a similar finish in that race to win an off-the-turf race here two weeks ago. Obviously Judge Alexander’s last race was poor, but he was out of position right from the start when at the back of the pack behind a slow pace. Jose Ortiz didn’t persevere with him that day, exaggerating the margin of defeat. I think he can bounce back on the stretch-out.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 7,12,14,16