by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 10 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 5:   7 - 3 - 5 - 9
Race 6:   1 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   14 - 1A - 4 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 5: GO POKE THE BEAR (#7)
Willing to Speed is the horse to beat as he drops in class for John Kimmel. He’s been facing stronger competition at the starter allowance level, and notably has been facing older horses whereas others are exiting races against straight 3-year-olds. While he was facing superior rivals in his last two starts, he was nevertheless soundly beaten in both of those races. I thought he actually ran pretty well in his prior efforts at Belmont, but he was in position to win on a few occasions and just couldn’t quite seal the deal. He’s a major player, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of taking him at a short price. Ian Glass will attract plenty of support once again after blowing a clear lead as the 7-5 favorite in his most recent start. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, but he encountered a favorable pace situation last time as well and couldn’t capitalize. The horse that I would take out of that race is Go Poke the Bear. This horse had no right to nearly get up for the victory given how badly compromised he was by the slow early fractions. He flew through the final furlong once clear to nearly catch Baffin Bay. Now Kendrick Carmouche gets aboard and the hope is that he can get him into the race a bit earlier so that he isn’t left with so much ground to make up late. Brad Cox obviously saw something in this horse to claim him for a second time at Saratoga, and I think he’s due to pick up a victory with him.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,9
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with ALL
 

RACE 6: SHORT POUR (#1)
There’s not much to nitpick in the recent form of the likely favorite Classic Lady. She’s finished second at this level twice now, but she’s been beaten by some quality rivals on each occasion. The winner of her last, War Canoe, returned to finish a strong second behind the talented Fifty Five in the John Hettinger two weeks ago. Classic Lady’s versatile running style should ensure that she works out a good trip once again, and she’s simply the horse to beat if she maintains her recent form. However, I don’t think it would be wise to just concede this race to her because there are others to consider. I’m not a big fan of Lovely La La, who has had her chances at this level and lost at short prices on multiple occasions. This is probably her best distance, but I just don’t trust her to finish off a race. Out of Trouble’s best effort gives her a big chance, but she was no match for her vastly improved stablemate Dream Passage last time. I thought she actually ran pretty well two back when just losing to Classic Lady by a head, and a mile is arguably the best distance for her. I’m using her, but my top pick is Short Pour, who attempts to win back-to-back races. The stretch-out in distance did the trick last time as Short Pour was able to make far better use of her tactical speed under a confident ride from Jose Ortiz. She didn’t even break well that day, but he rushed up to set a fast pace and never looked back. She had encountered trouble in her two prior sprint starts to kick off the year, so her overall form is stronger than it appears. This one-turn distance should suit her, and it’s not as if she needs the lead to be successful. I think this improving 3-year-old can step up in class.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 2,3,4,5,11
 

RACE 7: NAVASHA (#2)
Katama Moonlight figures to be a short price in this race after running on well to be second in her return at Saratoga last time. This 3-year-old filly took a big step forward out of her debut as a juvenile, finishing ahead of Stand for the Flag, who returned to win her next start stretching out. Katama Moonlight is certainly bred to handle the added furlong she encounters here as a full-sister to Grade 2-winning dirt router Noble Moon. I’m hardly against her, but I could see her getting bet down significantly given the questions that others still have to answer. She seems like a more reliable proposition than her uncoupled stablemate Canteen. Obviously Canteen has a right to improve in her 3-year-old debut, but I wasn’t that impressed with either of her starts last season. Razeena is one to consider as she gets back on dirt, which is clearly her preferred surface. She ran a competitive speed figure when second to Safta in her only U.S. dirt start to date, but that came over a sloppy track and she benefited from a hot pace that day. I’m not quite sure that she can duplicate that effort under different circumstances. I want to take a shot against the favorite with second time starter Navasha. This filly ran like one that needed more ground in her 6-furlong debut. She was off sluggishly and dawdled at the back of the pack early before swinging out into the clear in the lane. She was never going to get close to the heavily-touted winner Indian Pride, but she ran by some tired runners, staying on like one that would benefit from more ground. She gets that here, and she’s clearly been throwing down some improved workouts in the mornings since that debut run. I think she’s going to take a big step forward for Christophe Clement.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,6