by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 7 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 2B - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 8 - 9
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 9: 5 - 7 - 8 - 11
RACE 1: EKHTIBAAR (#3)
Souperfast is supposed to be the favorite off his dominant win at this level last time out. He was allowed to dictate terms on the front end that day, but he actually set a legitimate pace in doing so and beat a solid field. He must stretch out to 1 1/8 miles here, but he has done well going this far in the past. If he repeats that last effort, he is very likely to notch another win. I’m definitely using him, but I think he will face a legitimate challenge from the likely second choice in the wagering. Ekhtibaar gets back on the turf for the first time since he made his debut as a 2-year-old nearly 3 years ago. I can see why they ran him on dirt so many times in the interim, since he clearly has some ability over that surface. However, this move back to turf makes sense now that they have reached his ceiling on the main track. He has plenty of pedigree to handle grass. His dam was a multiple turf winner who was Group 2-placed in England, and she is also a full sister to a turf stakes winner in Europe. This horse has proven that he can handle the distance on dirt, so he clearly possesses the requisite stamina to excel going this far on the turf. Chad Brown had no choice but to run this son of Bernardini on the dirt when he returned last winter, but he has now been trying to get Ekhtibaar back on turf for more than 2 months. I’m generally not thrilled with horses switching surfaces this late in their careers, but Chad Brown knows what he’s doing in these situations.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,6,7
RACE 3: BLESSED HALO (#6)
Jason Servis has entered a formidable entry, led by the recently stakes-placed Fig Jelly. If this 3-year-old gelding repeats his most recent effort behind stablemate World of Trouble in the Quick Call, he is going to be a handful in this spot. The slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs should not pose a major issue, since he was competitive going longer distances on turf earlier this spring. He is clearly the horse to beat, but he’s going to be an awfully short price, especially given the presence of his entrymate, Dowse’s Beach, who I do not care for. Stolen Pistol appears to be one of Fig Jelly’s main rivals. He didn’t finish too far off the favorite when they met in the Quick Call, and he rebounded nicely last time out with a win over N1X allowance foes. He figures to be aided by getting some added real estate to work with, and he clearly has an affinity for the Belmont Park turf course. I’m using him prominently, but I’m somewhat worried that he won’t get enough pace to close into. The horse that I want to bet as the best alternative to Fig Jelly is Blessed Halo. Joel Rosario has one job on this horse: Send him to the lead and over to the advantageous rail. This race is being run over the Widener course, which has featured a strong gold rail ever since the rails were set at 0 feet last week. Blessed Halo is not quite as consistent as his main rivals, but he’s had excuses. He ran well enough to win this race and handled some give in the ground when he won back on May 13. Since then, he acted and broke through the gate on June 8, and then ran better than it appears after contesting a very fast pace on July 6. Seven furlongs is a question mark, but I believe he can negotiate it as long as he gets the right ride.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,5
RACE 4: ELIZABETH NICOLE (#3)
It’s hard to know exactly how the public will bet this confusing race. Aggregator seems like one that has to attract some support given her near miss in a similar spot two back at Saratoga. She made a sweeping move to the lead past midstretch in that Aug. 13 race and was run down by two horses who closed from behind her in the late stages. While she earned a speed figure that would make her tough in this spot, she did receive a very favorable pace setup and I think that exaggerates her performance. The entry also figures to be a relatively short price, only one will participate as the same rider is named on both halves. Princess Areni has run competitive speed figures for Simon Callaghan out in California, but she’s done so against very cheap company. I get the sense that she looks better than she actually is and could be an underlay. Nikki’s Bad, the other half, is even less appealing to me. Orchid Party is a total wild card off the claim by Midwest Thoroughbreds and Armando De La Cerda, who is a relative unknown on this circuit. She has prior races that would beat this field, but her recent form has been dreadful. The horse that I want to bet is Elizabeth Nicole. I know she looks a little too slow at first glance, but I actually think she’s slightly better than her form suggests. She did catch a speed-favoring surface two back at Saratoga, but she nevertheless ran hard every step of the way and defeated a tougher field than the one she meets here. Last time out, she unfortunately found herself in a race with many other speed types, and Dylan Davis elected to try out rating tactics. It didn’t work, but she actually ran better than it seems in finishing sixth. Gary Contessa has been enjoying a fantastic Belmont meet this fall and Dylan figures to be much more aggressive this time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
RACE 5: HONORABLE ROSE (#2)
The two horses likely to take the most money are Mensa Member and Shak’s Hidden Gem, who finished less than a length apart when they met on Aug. 24 at Saratoga. While Shak’s Hidden Gem finished behind her main rival that day, I thought she actually ran the better race. This filly was far too keen in her first start going long and basically ran off during the first half of the race. She was no match for the winner, but I thought she hung in gamely in the late stages. If Joel Rosario can get her to relax better this time, she might be the most likely winner. Mensa Member has a right to improve in her second start, but I felt that she was merely picking up the pieces late in her debut. She’s yet to show me that she possesses any real talent, but I recognize that she’s another win candidate. I’m trying to beat both of these fillies with Honorable Rose. Jeremiah Englehart has been trying to get this filly on turf in her last two starts, and I can see why. While there isn’t obvious turf pedigree in her immediate pedigree, her second dam is Pertuisane, who placed in multiple Grade 1 stakes on turf during her racing career. That makes Honorble Rose’s dam a half-sister to a couple of turf winners, and we saw her sire Honorable Dillon get a horse to win his turf debut earlier this week. Honorable Rose hasn’t done much running in any of her starts, but her last race is better than it appears. She got stuck behind a tiring rival on the far turn and was shuffled back while losing all of her momentum. That speed figure would have been significantly higher without that trouble, providing some evidence that she has benefited from the stretch-out in distance.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,7
RACE 6: COAL TRUTH (#6)
Business Cycle has to be considered the horse to beat in this race since he is the most naturally gifted in this field. However, this gelding is now pushing 6 and has yet to break through the maiden ranks. His two races this summer at Saratoga were solid, but they don’t give him a significant edge over this field. He ran well behind the talented Hersh two back and then last time he was badly compromised by a poor start. However, he still didn’t perform like a 1-2 favorite that day, and now he’s being asked to stretch out in distance. I’m using him prominently, but this is another very competitive field and I don’t feel that he necessarily has to win. His stablemate, Allured, is somewhat interesting on the stretch-out. Illudere could play out as the controlling speed, and he actually ran very well behind Business Cycle two back. Even Big Muddy is not without a chance, though he has yet to show more speed. All of these alternatives are usable, but I’m actually most interested in a horse that should be the longest shot on the board. Coal Truth has yet to run fast enough to compete against the aforementioned rivals, but that’s because his only two starts came as a 2-yearold. Coal Truth actually ran better than it appears in his debut at Saratoga over a speed-favoring track (indicated by the red color-coded Race Rating in TimeformUS PPs). He took a big step forward second time out when stretched out to this distance, and he might have won that race if not for a questionable ride. Javier Castellano got him into a very tight spot inside on the turn and the horse lost his momentum while getting bumped around at the quarter pole. Now he returns as a new gelding for Jonathan Thomas, who has strong numbers off trainer switches, and he appears to be working well.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL