PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   8 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 12 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 8 - 11 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: LOUISIANA LADY (#4) / COUNTESSOFPOTENZA (#8)
Paz the Wine was installed as the morning line favorite here, but she's not the kind of short-priced runner that I want to bet. She's now finished in the money without winning in four straight starts at this level on the turf. Generally, I don't want anyone out of the race that she's exiting earlier in the meet, and instead prefer some new faces. My top pick is Louisiana Lady. I'll be the first to admit that this filly is a little unreliable – she seems to throw in a clunker as often as she runs a competitive race. However, when she's right, she is capable of running well enough to beat this field. That's what she did last time, when she was a solid fourth against maiden special weight company at 66-1. I know her efforts prior to that look awful, but she had some minor excuses on a few occasions. I also want to use first-time starter Countessofpotenza somewhere in my play. There is not much class in her pedigree, but she is a half-sister to two turf winners, and Girolamo is a capable turf sire.

Win/Place: 4,8
Exacta Key Box: 4,8 with 1,4,7,8,10

RACE 2: FROSTY GAL (#3)
This is a weird race, in which three of the six runners are coming off wins, while the remaining three are coming off disappointing losses at short prices. Oddly enough, I'm against all of the runners in the former group, and prefer those exiting the terrible efforts. In my opinion, Three Eighty Eight is the most reliable of the bunch, but she's also the least-appealing win bet, given her propensity to finish second and third. No Hayne No Gayne scares me, since she would be formidable if she could get back to the competitive races from early in her career. However, the one that I'm most interested in is Frosty Gal. I actually think this filly may appreciate the stretch-out to a mile. She couldn't quite keep up going six furlongs last time at Saratoga, and had run her better races at elongated sprint distances before that. She figures to sit closer to a more moderate pace here, and I think her overall class can carry her to victory.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3,6 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 5,6 with ALL

RACE 4: KHALEESI KAT (#8)
I'm a little concerned that she's not going to get enough pace to close into in this spot, but I have to bet Khaleesi Kat off her last trip. That day, she broke a step slowly from the outside post position, and was hung out wide for her entire trip. Rather than attempting to save ground at the back of the pack, Jose Lezcano, sensing a slow pace developing ahead of him, made a premature move down the backstretch to get Khaleesi Kat into a contending position. However, in doing so she had to race three-wide around the turn in a race that was won by a horse that came up the rail. Now she's getting some class relief off that effort and returns to Belmont Park, where she's been successful in the past.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,4

RACE 5: CASIGORDO (#4)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so I want to give another chance to Casigordo in his second start for Chris Englehart. This horse is a closer by nature, but a poor start last time had him much farther back in the early going than he otherwise would have been. It took him a while to get going, but he was finishing strongly through the final eighth of a mile, and showed some signs of life. I think he can now step forward after having spent more time in the new barn. Chris Englehart gets a solid 83 Trainer Rating with horses making their second starts off the claim.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,12

RACE 9: ANNA LIFFEY (#3)
Sand City is undoubtedly the horse to beat in the finale as she makes her first start off the claim by Danny Gargan. She has run races that would crush this field, but she does need to rebound from a subpar effort as the odds-on favorite last time. I don't deny that she's the most likely winner, but I'm very intrigued by the private purchase of Anna Liffey. This just seems like a weird horse to acquire, given her recent form. Going back to early summer, she had run some races that would make her competitive in this spot, but she's tailed off since then. Joe Parker, who gets this filly into his barn, was laying low for the entire Saratoga meet, but now he picks back up in the midst of enjoying the best year of his training career. Notably, he gets an 80 Trainer Rating with horses making their first start for his barn.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 8,11