by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 13 - 9 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 7 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 11 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 10 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 9 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 1 - 13 - 2
RACE 3: STARS WILBURN (#7)
This is a very tricky race because all of the logical contenders have serious flaws. Three Eighty Eight may go favored, but she is hardly a mare I would want to trust at a short price. She was having trouble getting through this level last winter, and now she hasn’t been seen for more than seven months. Her best races make her the horse to beat, but she’s never shown a willingness to win races, having racked up eight second-place finishes in 20 career starts. My Girl Annie has shown flashes of ability, but she’s fairly inconsistent and benefitted from being the lone speed in a paceless situation two back at Saratoga. Some may make a case for Lady Vicki as the new face in this bunch off her maiden win. However, there’s no guarantee that she will handle the stretch-out in distance, and she would need to run the best race of her career in this spot. This feels like a race that could produce an odd result, so I want to look at some of the bigger prices. The one who intrigues me most is Stars Wilburn, who is not nearly as overmatched as she might appear at first glance. This filly ran a competitive speed figure going this distance back in April. I can excuse her poor effort over a muddy track in May, and her two fourth-place finishes thereafter came against tougher company. I like that she’s gotten a brief freshening since the early summer, and there’s still the potential that she could improve further as she makes just her second start with Lasix. Furthermore, she ran the best race of her career with Eric Cancel aboard, and he’s back in the irons today. These low-profile connections will ensure that she goes off at a healthy price.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6
RACE 5: BLACK CANARY (#2)
While this race did not draw a large field, it is nevertheless one of the more complicated handicapping puzzles of the day. There is no clear favorite in this contentious spot, in which any horse except Picture Day is a viable win candidate on the turf. Quality Time is perhaps the horse to beat off her decent fourth-place effort in a similar spot at Saratoga last month. She has yet to dazzle in any of her U.S. starts, but she has consistently run well and seems to be in the best form of her career. I’m using her, but I’m more interested in another filly out of that Aug. 20 race. Black Canary was the clear favorite that day, and she ended up finishing last after an odd trip. She appeared to be sitting in a great spot stalking on the rail coming to the top of the stretch, at which point Jose Ortiz decided to sneak up the rail when a clear path opened up. Watching the head-on replay of the stretch drive, she apparently had running room for a good 150 yards, but she appeared to be somewhat reluctant to go through that hole. Then, at the eighth pole, the pacesetter shifted back inside, and she lost all interest as she steadied in tight quarters. I also wonder if the ground along that inner rail was not the best, as Black Canary seemed to slip a few times while kicking up large clods of turf, something that was not happening to those racing outside of her. I like her prior form, and I think she deserves another chance. I’d also use Sugar Queen off the long layoff for Todd Pletcher. She ran deceptively well in the Jessamine last year and should appreciate the turnback to a sprint.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with 3,4,5,7