PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 1/1A - 7
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 9 - 1A
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   11 - 10 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 7:   1 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 8:   10 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 10:   7 - 6 - 5 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 5: HOLLYWOOD ROYAL (#2)
The horse to beat is Abbreviate as she returns from a six-month layoff for Chad Brown. She ran well in both of her starts at Gulfstream over the winter, finishing a fast-closing second in her debut before encountering some traffic trouble when fourth in her only subsequent start. The turnback to seven furlongs should not be an issue, and she certainly is a win candidate. However, I think others are likely to offer better value. Two second-time starters come out of the second race on Aug. 14 at Saratoga. The one likely to take more money is Boom Boom Boom, who was sandwiched at the start, spotting the field a few lengths, before making a late rush to nab second place. Conventional wisdom is that a Jimmy Toner trainee is supposed to improve second time out, and the added distance does not figure to be an issue. However, I'm more interested in the runner who finished just behind her in that race. Hollywood Royal was setting a pretty taxing early pace and dueled with eventual winner Vigor around the turn before fading in the late stages. Vigor came out of that race to improve against allowance company next time out, which leads me to believe that this filly ran better than it seems given the dynamics. There doesn't appear to be that much speed in this field, and Hollywood Royal could find herself in a favorable early position.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,8,9

RACE 9: REALM (#1)
The likely favorite is You're to Blame, who was exposed as not really wanting to go a two-turn 1 1/8 miles when finishing a tiring fourth in the Curlin last time. He's much better around one turn, and this one-mile distance should suit him. The only major knock against him is the lack of pace in this race since he is a confirmed closer. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead. That could play out to be Mo Town, as predicted, but I think that Realm may be in front early as long as he's ridden properly. Jose Ortiz was too passive aboard Realm in the early going last time, allowing him to drop to the back of the pack in a race that did not feature a very strong pace. From there, he encountered traffic trouble at multiple points, had to alter course when shut off in the lane, and actually did very well to lose by only a length to Mo Town. This distance is perfect for him, and I think he's shown some subtle signs of life lately after going off form this spring.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6,7 with 2,5,6,7

RACE 10: KIERLAND (#7)
Risky Sour is the horse to beat off his solid second-place finish at this level last time. However, he's going to be a much shorter price here after going off at 9-1 last time, and he did work out a great trip that day. How short of a price do you really want to accept on a 33-race maiden? I much prefer one of the runners who finished behind him last time. Kierland got an impatient ride from Kendrick Carmouche last time. He had good early position racing along the inside through the opening half of the race but prematurely came off cover to make a wide move into contention on the far turn. He briefly challenged for the lead in the lane but faded late. If he can get back to his effort two back, I think he's dangerous here, and he has more room for improvement than some others who have had more chances.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,6,11