PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 9 - 7
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 1/1A - 2
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   9 - 5 - 10 - 8
Race 9:   3 - 9 - 8 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 2: PROVEN INNOCENT (#1)
Summer Silence is arguably the horse to beat as he returns from a brief layoff for Christophe Clement. He was just facing a tougher field last time when fading through the stretch to be fifth of six runners. He had previously run second at this level back in May after working out an advantageous ground-saving trip. Balthus could also take some money as he makes his career debut for Chad Brown. He’s out of a Group 1-placed dam and is by top European sire Galileo, which prompted him to sell for $513k at the Tattersalls sale in 2019. It’s taken a very long time to get this horse to the races and he still seems a little one-paced in his training, hence him debuting at 10 furlongs. I’m going in a different direction with Proven Innocent. This Shug McGaughey trainee is certainly bred to be a nice turf horse, being out of the excellent producer Meghan’s Joy, the dam of Ironicus and other turf winners. It took him a few starts to figure things out at the start of his career, but he ran deceptively well at Gulfstream two back in February. Then last time he was compromised by a wide trip over this course but was finishing best of all late. I think he still has room for improvement and I like the addition of blinkers for a gelding who has been a little unfocused.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 3,4,5,7

RACE 3: MAOILIN (#2)
It’s hard to know where the public will go in this wide open N1X allowance event. Perfect Grace figures to vie for favoritism after easily breaking her maiden last time out at Saratoga. She couldn’t have found a softer spot as she was meeting a group of turf-meant rivals in a depleted off-the-turf field. However, she did win with ease and has a pedigree to suggest she should be able to handle this stretch-out in distance. I’d use her, but I trust the proven class of Love and Love a bit more. This filly doesn’t win that often but she’s been right there at this level a number of times and owns a set of speed figures that arguably make her the horse to beat. I’m using both of these, but I’m intrigued by a new face who figures to be a price. Maoilin made her U.S. debut last time at Saratoga and caught a mess of a track. She was reserved off the pace early and could never make an impact in a race dominated up front. She wasn’t disgraced in finishing a distant third but I think she has more to offer on this surface. She has more of a dirt pedigree being by Gemologist out of dam who is a full-sister to Mizzen Mast. She’s also had some time to train in this country after racing without much lead-in time to acclimate last time.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4

RACE 7: BIG EVEREST (#6)
Jaxon Traveler could go favored in this wide open edition of the Allied Forces. He was beaten by the superior Golden Pal in his lone prior turf attempt and since then he’s gotten back to the winner’s circle on dirt. I’m not convinced that turf is really his preferred surface as there just wasn’t much of quality behind him in that lone prior turf start. He figures to get a good trip up on the pace but I want others. Arzak earned a strong speed figure on synth at Presque Isle last time but he has previously run well in turf sprints. He can be a difficult horse to ride at times, as he doesn’t rate as kindly as his riders would like. I would also consider Ranger Fox, who gets back to a more appropriate distance after trying to stretch-out around two turns last time. That experiment just didn’t work out, but he had looked like a progressive colt prior to that. My top pick is another turnback. Big Everest showed ability in his lone start last year as a 2-year-old, finishing a strong second behind the once-promising Hard Love. He got far too rank off the layoff in his return as a 3-year-old but he put it all together last time, displaying an electrifying turn of foot to win a one-mile maiden event. I don’t mind the turnback to sprinting at all. This colt is very handy in his races and possesses good acceleration, which should allow him to adapt to this sprint trip.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3 with 1,3,5,7

RACE 8: HONEY PANTS (#9)
Christophe Clement holds a strong hand in the Christiecat. Bye Bye is arguably the one to beat after she was an unlucky loser of the Galway at Saratoga last time out. She was squeezed back at the start and found herself badly shuffled out of position on the backstretch. She got a great ride from Joel Rosario thereafter but just had a little too much ground to make up in the lane. She should appreciate the slight stretch-out to 6 furlongs and she has more tactical speed than we saw from her last time. I prefer Clement’s other runner Honey Pants. At first glance it might appear that her form has hit a plateau, but there’s more going on here. She had done her best work at sprint distances as a 2-year-old, and the stretch-out to two turns at Gulfstream just never appeared to suit her. Clement cut her back in distance two back at Belmont and she responded beautifully. There was no pace in that June 20 race and she put in a fantastic stretch rally to get up. Though she lost as the favorite in Canada last time, she was again compromised by a slow pace. I think she’s better than her recent speed figures indicate, but she needs to work out a trip in yet another race with a murky pace scenario. I also want to use Caldee, who could get the jump on them all if she’s able to use her speed going this sprint distance. She’s done her best work in routes, but she has the quickness to be effective over this shorter trip. I also like the gameness than she displayed last time at Ellis Park.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,8,10
Trifecta: 9 with 5,10 with 1,2,5,8,10

RACE 9: STORMI CAT LADY (#3)
Tellaperfecttale is the logical favorite after just missing at this level in her return from a brief layoff last time at Saratoga. Importantly, she showed that she suffers no ill effects from her involvement in a scary spill back in March. She was surprisingly close to the pace last time and appeared to have the race won in the last sixteenth before just getting a little leg weary. She should be fitter this time and is the most likely winner. I prefer her to other contenders like Know It All Red, who has had plenty of chances, and Little Ms Scarlet, who woke up in an off-the-turf race last time. My top pick is Stormi Cat Lady at what I’m hoping is a square price. She ran a serious of speed figures that would make her a contender here back in the winter at Aqueduct, many of which were earned against maiden special weight company. She obviously tailed off in early summer and has been given some time off since then. Yet now she’s returning for Gustavo Rodriguez and would be a major player here if she can resurrect her prior form. I don’t mind the turnback for her either, as she often had trouble finishing off her route races.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,8,9