by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   8 - 3 - 1 - 9
Race 3:   1/1A - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 2 - 1A
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   12 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 10:   9 - 10 - 1 - 12

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: MAKE A STAND (#8)
Gravitas is the horse to beat from the front end, as he figures to use his ample early speed in an attempt to bottom out this field. While he would be tough to beat if able to reproduce his recent form, trainer Jonathan Thomas is just 1 for 28 at NYRA over the past 6 months while he’s won 6 of 26 starts at Monmouth during that time. This horse often has trouble finishing off his races and I think he could be vulnerable against this field. Mike Maker has entered a pair of runners, both of whom seem like viable contenders. Doubly Blessed had a trip last time, but it was much of his own doing, as he attempted to lug in badly during the stretch drive, as he has done in all of his starts. I prefer Me and Mr. C of the Maker runners, as he has a right to improve first off the claim for this barn. He didn’t get the right trip last time and has prior form that would make him competitive here. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Make a Stand, who figures to be a more generous price. Like the favorite, Make a Stand ships up from Monmouth out of some potentially weaker races. However, his efforts in those races at the Jersey Shore are better than they appear. He lost all chance at the start two back when he was badly squeezed back. Then last time, he was against off towards the rear of the field but commenced a wide, premature rally to the front on the backstretch. Mid-race moves like that are rarely successful, but this horse managed to rebreak in upper stretch to fend off his foes. He’s in excellent form right now and could fly under the radar here.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,9
 

RACE 4: PETIT FILS (#5)
The merits and shortcomings of the two favorites, Rocketry and You’re to Blame, are fairly obvious at this point. The former has prior form that would crush this field, but he’s been consistently underperforming over the past two seasons. The latter’s form is more volatile, though he was also capable of running well enough to win races at this level in the past. You’re to Blame just edged out Rocketry in the latter stages of the Birdstone last time, but he was just picking up pieces after Rocketry was turned away by Moretti. Both can win at short prices, but I feel like you’re supposed to entertain some of the new faces in this lineup. The one that I found most intriguing is Petit Fils. This 5-year-old makes his first start on dirt for new connections after a failed bid to become a stakes horse on turf in this country. While he possesses a European pedigree, his sire Makfi is by solid dirt influence Dubawi and his dam is by Orpen, a son of Lure who has gotten some dirt runners in South America. Petit Fils was reportedly training well on dirt up at Saratoga, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could handle this surface. His new connections have been known to pull off some unlikely results with new acquisitions. Furthermore, trainer Chuck Lawrence is 12 for 60 (20%, $3.13 ROI) with horses going from turf to dirt routes over the past 5 years.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4
 

RACE 5: LOTTIE’S MIZZION (#4)
This maiden claiming event looks wide open, though the horse to beat is clearly Belleza. She’s not the kind of horse that I’m eager to bet at a short price, but she has certainly run well enough to win at this level, especially two back when she made an early move into a quick pace before hanging on for second. Her last race was a little disappointing, but her early speed makes her dangerous in a potentially paceless affair. I have to take a shot against her with Lottie’s Mizzion, who is in better form than her recent results would indicate. This filly did not get a great ride two back when she was inexplicably taken to the back of the pack despite breaking alertly. All things considered she finished with good interest despite being left with far too much ground to make up. Then last time she was hindered by a speed-favoring track and moderate pace as she closely mildly for fifth going this distances. We saw Gringotts, who got a similar trip that day, return to win later in the Saratoga meet, and I think this filly can also improve over a fair racetrack.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,3,7,8
 

RACE 8: PRAIRIE FIRE (#7)
Jewel of Arabia may go favored as she seeks her third consecutive victory moving through her NY-bred allowance conditions. While she’s registered daylight wins in her last couple of starts, she has benefited from circumstances in those races. She caught a speed-favoring track when she romped in the slop two back, and then last time she stalked a moderate pace against inferior competition. This is a significant step up in class and she’s going to encounter a more testing pace scenario. Among the shorter prices, I prefer Fierce Lady. She was in the midst of a mild stretch rally last time when she got cut off by today’s rival Good Credence. She was never going to win that race, but may have been cost a position in the incident. The problem with Fierce Lady is that she has been well supported in all of her recent starts (sent off favored 7 times in a row) but she doesn’t have much to show for it. The trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez has helped a little but she’s still not delivering on her early potential. I’m using her but I also worry that she could get caught up in a fast pace with fellow contenders Letmetakethiscall and Baby Boss. I’m siding with the closer Prairie Fire. She looked like an improving filly coming into that last start. She had been compromised by a slow pace in her return from the layoff, and followed that up with a career-best effort on July 23, when hindered by a speed-favoring track. However she couldn’t run back to that effort last time as she failed to get involved after losing contact with the field early. Now Linda Rice adds blinkers, a strong move for her barn, and the rider switch to Jose Lezcano doesn’t hurt. She also may finally get the fast pace setup that she needs to be successful.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,6
 

RACE 9: WINDFALL PROFIT (#1)
This is arguably the most wide open race on the card, as you can make a valid case for every single runner entered for turf. Eye of a Soldier and Lashara each figure to attract support after battling for second behind impressive winner Duopoly last time. Yet both got decent ground-saving trips and just couldn’t make much of an impact late. I’m using them, but I think others will offer better value. Mary’s France offers some appeal as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, who has excellent statistics in this situation. However, her overseas form doesn’t appear to be that strong and I’m concerned she could get overbet in this spot. My top pick is last-out maiden winner Windfall Profit. She’s stepping up in class after beating a weaker field last time, but it feels like this daughter of Malibu Moon has just turned a corner for Shug McGaughey. She was a dominant winner last time, traveling well throughout despite racing wide before easily drawing off in the lane under minimal encouragement. She’s trained forwardly out of that race and has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this paceless affair. At a bigger price I would also use Fetching, who is an interesting claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci. She was in solid form earlier this year going shorter and has just been in the wrong spots in her last two starts. The stretch-out and lack of pace in this race could work to her advantage.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with ALL
 

RACE 10: JUSTINTIMEFORWINE (#9)
Bricco is overdue for a victory after losing a nasty photo finish last time. He appeared to have that race won at the eighth pole after making a looping move to the lead off the far turn. However, he tired in the late stages, allowing longshot Freedom and Whisky to sneak through on his inside and nip him on the wire. Bricco has subtly improved with each career start, but he’s now finished second at this level three times in a row. His barn was firing on all cylinders at the Saratoga meet, but that means this horse is likely to be overbet once again. I still prefer him to the logical alternative Selfmade, who exits some weaker turf races at this level. If I’m going to try to beat Bricco, I want to do it from the front end with Justintimeforwine. This horse has had more chances than many others, but he’s finally getting some needed class relief as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s also in better form than it appears after having excuses for his two starts since returning from the layoff. He ran off through unreasonably fast fractions two back. Then last time he got extremely rank into the clubhouse turn when Mike Luzzi attempted to rate him, and ultimately dragging him up to the lead. Those early exertions took their toll lately. This time he figures to get sent forward by Kendrick Carmouche and he should be the controlling speed. The other horse that I find somewhat interesting is Noble Mischief. This is the first time that this 3-year-old has been in a realistic spot after trying tougher maiden special weight fields in recent starts. 

Win: 9
Exacta Box: 1,9,10
Trifecta: 9,10 with 9,10 with 1,3,7,12