by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 11 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 1/1A - 6 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 12 - 6 - 3
RACE 2: SHIMMERING MOON (#6)
There appear to be four main contenders in this confusing claiming race for fillies and mares. The one that appears to be in the best form is Archumybaby, who exits a win here in the slop just two weeks ago. She was no match for the talented Lady’s Island two back and she has speed figures from earlier in the spring that would make her tough. The obvious question is whether she can hold her form for the new barn off the claim. Antonio Arriaga can send out winners on this circuit from time to time, but his statistics off the claim are merely mediocre. Honey Graeme may attract some support for Linda Rice, though it’s hard to find an excuse for that dismal effort last time. She was outrun early and just appeared to drop back as if she was almost going to be eased on the turn. She’s bounced back from bad efforts in the past, but I have trouble trusting her. I suppose Mo Flash is also somewhat interesting off the claim by Chris Englehart, but she needs to improve a bit off her recent form. I strongly prefer Shimmering Moon of the logical contenders. This mare had been in very good form for Rice throughout much of the winter and spring. I understand that some may be concerned about her return from the layoff last time, but I believe she actually ran a lot better than it seems. The first two dirt races on that Aug. 8 card – run before rain came later – played out as if the rail was extremely dead, and Shimmering Moon was right down on the rail on the far turn. I think she’s going to move forward off that effort and Robert Falcone does well off the claim.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,7
RACE 4: GETMOTHERAROSE (#8)
Restructure is probably the horse to beat in this spot after winning her turf debut last time. She was scratched out of a tougher spot at Saratoga on Sep. 1 and now lands here 3 weeks later in what is probably an easier spot. She did everything right in the turf debut, rating kindly off the pace before powering to a clear lead in the final furlong. Despite having limited pedigree for this surface, she obviously has an affinity for grass. The runner-up from that race Brittas Bay returned to win at Kentucky Downs, so the form has held up. She’ll be a handful if she’s merely maintained her form. I respect the favorite, but I’m taking a shot against her with Getmotherarose. She handled the step up in class last time better than I had expected, putting forth a career-best effort to be third behind some salty rivals. That’s been a productive race, as runner-up Paper Clip returned to win an allowance at Kentucky Downs and fourth place finisher Turf War came right back to win the Christiecat. She’s come a long way since her wins at Belmont earlier in the summer and I think she’s going to sit a great stalking trip here. The one other horse who scares me is Zalia. She was visually impressive in that Kentucky Downs debut, but wasn’t beating much that day. She actually went off at 7-1 in the Jessamine off that score, but she was never a serious factor after a rough start. Bill Mott doesn’t have the greatest statistics in this situation. She appears to be training well, but she still has a lot of improving to do.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,6,7,11
Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 3,5,6,10,11
RACE 5: HAY DAKOTA (#7)
I’m not way against Dream Friend, who is probably the horse to beat. I just didn’t want to take a particularly short price on a horse that some people may overrate due to his third-place finish in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch last time. That was a weird race run over a very soft turf course and Dream Friend was the controlling speed through pretty slow fractions. He’s still very competitive off his effort two back, but I think he may be an underlay in this spot. Classic Covey would be pretty formidable if this race had been run last fall, but it’s hard to trust a horse coming off a one-year layoff. I’ll use him defensively. I think you also have to respect Aquaphobia, who isn’t exactly a winning type anymore but nevertheless continues to run well every time he’s led over. He was no match for Annals of Time two back and then he had little chance to close into a very slow pace last time. I’m using all of these runners, but my top pick is Hay Dakota. I know Jason Servis does better off the claim with turf sprinters, but I think he’s spotted this horse well going a one-turn mile. I do believe this runner has distance limitations, so he may really appreciate this configuration in a spot that is likely to feature a fast pace to set up his late run. He earned a competitive speed figure in that victory at Churchill Downs two back and last time he was compromised when trying to launch a 4-wide premature rally on the far turn. If he moves forward just a little bit for the new barn, he’ll be a major factor here.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,11
RACE 6: BELL COURT (#7)
This is a fascinating maiden race that I’m highlighting mostly because there’s much to discuss. Only two runners in this field have experience and both are somewhat intriguing. Charreada has had her chances, but she’s mostly raced on turf and it’s not as if her first two dirt efforts were terrible. She’s always trained well on dirt, though I’m not sure this shorter distance is ideal for her. Comic figures to attract support despite not running well first time out. Rodolphe Brisset’s runners often need a start in their debuts and she has reportedly worked well since that start. I’m using both in some capacity, but the focus here is really on the first-time starters. Chad Brown has entered a pair. While both are well bred, Royal Flag seems like the one who has shown more ability in the morning. She’s trained well throughout the summer at Belmont and registered a good-looking solo drill (rare for the Chad Brown barn) on Sept. 8. She’s also bred to be pretty special as a full sister to graded stakes winner Eagle and a half-sister to the very talented Catalina Cruiser. That said, it’s not as if Tap to My Lu is training poorly, so she could also be heard from. However, the first-time starter that may be most intriguing is the Godolphin homebred Bell Court. I saw a video of just one of this filly’s workouts early in the summer in which she was very aggressive and appeared to have a ton of pent-up energy. Since then, she has registered some fast times, most notably earning a clocking of 47 1/5 seconds on Sept. 6, a day when only 2 of the 8 horses to work that distance broke 50 seconds. Her dam, Burmilla, won the Grade 2 Honorable Miss going 6 furlongs and she has produced this one’s half-sister Snowbell, winner of the Grade 3 Comely. I like the outside draw and won’t be surprised if she’s live and shows plenty of speed.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 8: STANHOPE (#8)
Those with experience appear to have the upper hand in this wide-open New York-bred turf sprint. Noble Emotion is a difficult call for me as he turns back in distance in his second start. The runner-up from that first race, Maxwell Esquire, returned to win his next start impressively. The dam was unraced and has yet to produce a winner, though the second dam was a multiple stakes winner who was best from 7 furlongs to a mile on turf and synthetic. Jonathan Thomas hasn’t had the greatest season in New York this year, but his barn is 11 for 23 (48%, $3.62 ROI) with second time starting maidens on the turf. Of those with turf experience, I prefer Dante’s Fire. He put in a very encouraging debut during the last week at Saratoga, as he was off about one length slowly and then was sluggish thereafter. He really got rolling around the far turn and put in a relentless rally to get up for second behind an impressive winner. He’s bred for turf on top and bottom and figures to improve with the little bit of added ground he gets here. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is one of the first time turfers, Stanhope. This colt flashed good speed in his debut before getting run down by the talented Cleon Jones, who returned to finish second in a stakes and runs in the Bertram F. Bongard earlier on this card. It’s no surprise to see him switching surfaces in the second start as he has plenty of pedigree for the surface. Street Sense is 10% with first time turfers and the dam earned her only career victory on grass. She is a half-sister to Enterprising, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf. He has continued to train well out of the debut and figures to step forward with the surface switch. At a much bigger price, I’d also throw in one first time starter, Michael’s Bad Boy, since he appears to be training well and has more than enough pedigree for turf.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,11,12