by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 9 - 4 - 10 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 11 - 9 - 6 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 1 - 11
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 10: 2 - 12 - 7 - 4
RACE 5: CILANTRO (#2)
Land Mine has to be considered the horse to beat off her runner-up effort in the Saratoga Dew last time. She’s proven going the distance, and she has clearly returned in top form for Phil Serpe this summer. My one concern is that she hung badly in the late stages last time after a decent trip. Frostie Anne is a game filly who likes to win races, but Land Mine had the full length of the stretch to get by her and just couldn’t do it. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead since there is not an abundance of early speed in this race. I think that could make Cilantro very dangerous on the stretch-out. While she is a daughter of speed influence Distorted Humor, there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of her pedigree. Her dam was a route winner on turf, and she is a half-sister to the dams of Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner and New York-bred routers So Lonesome and Ack Naughty. Todd Pletcher has very good numbers with stretch-outs on dirt, and I feel that this filly should have gotten some added fitness out of her return effort at seven furlongs last time. Speed and the rail have been advantages on the main track at Belmont to varying degrees over the past week. In addition to the favorite, I’ll also use her with Indy Union, who had no chance over a speed-favoring surface last time and should appreciate some subtle class relief.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 2 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 6: THE CROCHERON KID (#11)
A number of runners in this race exit either or both of a pair of allowance races at this level on Aug. 1 and Aug. 24. Frisky Magician nearly won that Aug. 2 heat when rocketed past today’s rival Whatstotalkabout as he flew up the rail in the late stages. If he runs back to that effort, he’s a top win candidate here. However, his last effort has to be some cause for concern as he never got unraveled and wound up finishing last behind a few of today’s same rivals. The very firm turf course may have worked against him, but he was still unusually flat. Whatstotalkabout is a dangerous alternative as he gets to Belmont Park, where he seems to run his best races. I think he’s dangerous, but I don’t love any of his races and prefer others at more enticing prices. Uncle Youdge has to be considered a strong contender off the claim by Joe Sharp. This barn has won with 8 for 31 starters (26 percent, $2.31 ROI) first off the claim in turf sprints between 5 and 6 furlongs over the past five years. Furthermore, there is not an abundance of early speed in this race, which could make him a wire-to-wire threat. I’m using him, but the horse that interests me most at a square price is The Crocheron Kid. I realize that this 6-year-old has had his fair share of chances and rarely wins. However, the majority of his recent performances have come against much tougher open allowance company. I thought he actually ran pretty well last time when he moved back down to this level, as he had to wait for room at the top of the stretch and was one of the few horses to close in a race dominated up front. I think this slight stretch-out to 6 furlongs helps him and a little cut in the ground shouldn’t hinder his chances either.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,6,8,9
RACE 7: MILES OF HUMOR (#6)
Flyoff figures to take some money as he returns at the same level at which he competed last time on Aug. 8. He had an eventful trip that day, as he was floated out around the far turn and angled in sharply through the lane, which ultimately resulted in his disqualification from second to third. He’s been in good form since returning from the layoff for George Weaver, and he makes plenty of sense in this spot. However, this is a highly competitive field for the level, and there are others to consider at more enticing prices. A few of those exit a pair of starter-allowance races at Saratoga on Aug. 2 and Aug. 29. Herecomesyourman finished third on both of those occasions. This horse can be very frustrating for his riders, as he comes with a late run that can be difficult to time correctly. He’s a player in this spot, but I think others are more reliable win candidates. The horse who interests me most is Miles of Humor. He finished fourth in that Aug. 2 race at this level, but I thought he ran better than his finishing position would indicate. That race was dominated by horses who were rallying wide, and Miles of Humor made the first move into that pace before drifting down inside late. I thought he ran on gamely to be fourth, and he should appreciate the cutback in distance to a one-turn mile. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and he figures to be rallying from farther behind as Ralph Nicks elects to take the blinkers off for this start. Another runner who should be included is Lemonist, who actually faced a decent field at the $40,000 claiming level last time and has back races that make him a player here.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7,11