by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 9 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 9 - 3 - 1 - 10
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 8 - 10 - 6 - 13
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 11 - 2 - 1 - 12
Race 7: 10 - 4 - 6 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 13 - 9 - 2
RACE 1: ARCHIVAL (#9)
Shoot the Gap’s recent TimeformUS Speed Figures make him faster than his competitors, and his last effort is not as bad as the margin of defeat would suggest given the relative quality of that field in comparison to this one. I'll use him, but I prefer another runner at a better price. Archival barely lifted a hoof in a series of route races at the start of his career, all of which came against maiden special weight company. He finally showed some signs of life last time when dropped in class and turned back to a sprint distance. He was riding a strong rail that day, which may have aided his performance, but I still think he showed improvement. Now, he's been claimed by David Jacobson, who has started off well at this Belmont meet. Furthermore, over the past five years, horses claimed off D. Wayne Lukas running back in maiden races are 4 for 11 (36 percent, $4.88 ROI).
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,8
RACE 2: MOM’S A COUGAR (#9)
I'm just not enamored with any of the runners coming out of the Aug. 30 turf sprint at this level. May Flowers probably put in the best performance given the dynamics of that race, but she rarely wins. I want a new face, so I'm taking a shot with Mom's a Cougar. This mare handled a sloppy, sealed track last time in her first start for new trainer Abel Castellano, and proficiency on that kind of surface is sometimes indicative of turf ability. There is also pedigree evidence to suggest she'll appreciate this surface switch. Her dam never won on grass but may have been best on that surface, and this mare is a half-sister to Mom's On Strike, who is stakes-placed on turf. Furthermore, Mom's On Strike is by the relatively poor turf sire First Dude, whereas Mom's a Cougar is by 15 percent turf sire Kantharos.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,10,11
RACE 4: CARRERRA CAT (#2) / PURELY LUCKY (#8)
There are definitely some first-time starters with solid turf pedigrees in this field, but I'm most interested in two horses with experience. My top pick is Carrera Cat, who stretches out in distance after an eventful debut sprinting at Saratoga. That day, she was off a step slowly, got rushed up into a forward position on the far turn, and then was never fully clear when attempting to rally in the stretch. All things considered, it was an encouraging run for an inexperienced filly, and she's bred to handle the added ground as a full sister to turf-route winner Kitty Maddnes. I'll use her with Purely Lucky, who looked like a sure winner at midstretch last time when she abruptly pricked her ears and pulled herself up. This Brad Cox trainee clearly has a bit of talent, but she needs to overcome her quirks to realize her full potential.
Win: 2,8
Exacta: 2,8 with 1,2,6,7,8,10,13
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,6,7,10,13
RACE 6: GREAT IMPORT (#11)
This is a very tricky race. Chad Brown starts a pair of runners who figure to go off at relatively short prices, but I don't fully trust either one. Beat the Benchmark showed real promise as a 2-year-old, but it's somewhat concerning that it's taken her this long to make her 3-year-old debut. This distance should be perfect for her, but I can't pick her on top at a short price. I'm less enthusiastic about his other filly, Ellery Lane, who showed very little in her U.S. debut last time. Perhaps she needed the race and will appreciate this turnback, but I can't take her at a short price. I actually want a different runner out of that last race. Great Import finished just a neck behind Ellery Lane, but I think she didn't get a chance to give a top effort that day. She had decent early position, stalking the pace, but Joel Rosario appeared to get caught off guard coming to the top of the stretch when a runner ranged up outside. From there, she was basically steadied out of position for the entire stretch drive and was never fully set down to run. I'm willing to throw the race out. She showed promise in her debut win, which came at today's distance, and she figures to be fitter for this second start off the layoff.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,6,12
RACE 7: PROPER FREUD (#10)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Sudden Surprise, Jewel Can Disco, and Rectify will all be contesting the early pace, so you would think that the closers will be at an advantage. The question is: Which closer do you want? The logical one to consider is West Hills Giant, who was claimed back by the Robertino Diodoro barn last time. He ran one of his better efforts in his lone start for this barn back in July, but I can’t get past the fact that he so rarely wins. Therefore, I need to get a little more creative. My top pick is Proper Freud. At first glance, I know he seems hopeless in this spot, but I think there are some things to like. First, his Finger Lakes efforts are not as bad as they seem. He got some odd rides in a couple of those starts from a low-percentage rider, and he really wants to go a bit farther than those abbreviated sprint distances. I think it's a very positive sign that David Jacobson, who seems to have gotten his barn back on track at this meet, is placing him in such an ambitious spot. After all, he was competitive in tougher races as recently as last winter, and his running style fits this race perfectly.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6,9,11
Trifecta: 4,6,9 with 2,4,6,9,11 with 10
RACE 9: PASSING REMINDER (#4)
New Canaan is a deserving favorite after an eventful trip in her second start up at Saratoga. Her debut effort sprinting was actually better than it seems given her slow start and wide trip, and then last time she was just never put in position to be competitive and encountered traffic leaving the backstretch. This distance should be fine, and she is very much part of my play. However, I'm slightly more interested in Passing Reminder at a better price. This filly drops out of maiden special weight company and gets a positive rider switch to Jose Lezcano. Last time, she was off slowly and was extremely rank through the opening furlongs. She finally got clear in the stretch, but was already spent at that point. If she runs a more professional race and gets a more favorable trip this time, I think she can post the minor upset.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,6