by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 7: 1A - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 14 - 16 - 5 - 13
RACE 2: CEE ARE EM (#5)
This is an auction maiden event, for horses who sold or RNA at their most recent sale for $45k or less. Mostly Harmless ran for this condition in her debut at Saratoga on the turf. She didn’t take much money but closed mildly for third after an awkward start. That race’s winner Mystic Eyes came back to finish a good second in a stakes at Kentucky Downs, though I’m not sure if there was much of quality in behind her. Now this gal switches to dirt, and her pedigree says she should like it. Her dam was a Grade 1-placed dirt sprinter and her only other foal to race is a 7-time dirt winner. She’s the horse to beat, but I didn’t want to take a horse that would get bet off turf form. If I’m going to take a runner switching surfaces, I’d rather go for Cee Are Em. She didn’t take much money and showed very little in her debut, which came on turf. Now she switches to dirt for her second start, which makes some sense. While she’s a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Data Link, it’s really more of a dirt family on the bottom side. Her dam was a stakes-winning dirt router and the only other sibling of note was best routing on dirt. Chad Summers rarely takes much money so you’re like to get a price on this one. She’s been training better since that debut and may be getting on the right surface this time. I would also consider first time starters, but they generally go out for barns that aren’t known for debut success. Charlottesometimes could be the most dangerous of those based on her quick worktab.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6,7
RACE 4: D’VINICRIS (#6)
Mo Mischief is obviously the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time. This half-million dollar two-year-old purchase for My Racehorse has been quite a disappointment on the racetrack, losing all four starts despite going favored each time. Todd Pletcher has raced him at Monmouth in both starts this year. He ran fine off the layoff two back, but regressed last time, backing up as the even-money choice in a race he really should have won. Pletcher is 15 for 52 (29%) with maidens dropping for a tag for the first time in dirt sprints but the ROI is just $1.21, suggesting that they are often overbet. Given that statistics, I want to find an alternative. Flipping Fun has run some decent speed figures but he’s 0 for 20 in his career and has had his chances at this level while facing New York-breds. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with D’vinicris. This gelding has had three starts on the dirt, and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best he has to offer. He faced a very tough field in his debut, beaten by eventual Albany winner Americanrevolution. After that he caught a sloppy track, and then tried the turf. He was back over a harrowed course last time, but I didn’t like the ride he got. Jose Ortiz rode him conservatively away from the gate and then got into all sorts of trouble steadying out of position approaching the half-mile pole. His race was basically over by the time they got to the far turn. I’m hoping Jose Ortiz allows him to show more speed this time, as he’s drawn well outside of primary rival Mo Mischief.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 4,6
RACE 6: FROMANOTHAMUTHA (#8)
Misbehaved took money in what appeared to be a loaded field on dirt. He broke a half-step slowly, putting him last a few strides out of the gate. He quickly rushed up into mid-pack on the backstretch but was under a hard drive for most of the race. He was no match for the impressive winner but never stopped trying. This colt is a full-brother to accomplished turf sprinter Into Mystic, but there’s some versatility in this pedigree going back to the second generation. Todd Pletcher is 14 for 50 (28%, $1.63 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over the past 5 years. I think he’s the one to beat, and slightly prefer him to Immokalee, who has a similar profile. This son of Curlin didn’t run badly at all in his debut and certainly has a right to improve. Judge Davis is another one to consider on the stretch-out for Shug McGaughey, who is 4 for 15 (27%, $3.22 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years. He dueled with subsequent Iroquois winner Major General at the top of the stretch before settling for second. My top pick is Fromanothamutha. He showed very little in his debut over a wet track, so it was meaningful that he was bet down to 11-1 in a tough maiden event on Alabama day for his second start. He ran a vastly improved race that day, as he dueled through fast fractions, was passed in upper stretch, but stayed on gamely for third behind the very impressive My Prankster. He ran like one that could get more ground, and this dam has produced several siblings who were best over route distances on dirt. Ray Handal doesn’t have great stats with this move, but he could play out as the main speed and gets a rider switch to Rosario.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,6
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 8: CLASSY EDITION (#4)
November Rein comes in with the best speed figures, having run well to break her maiden two back at Saratoga before taking down the Seeking the Ante Stakes in her first start against winners. A repeat of either of those efforts will make her tough to beat here. However, she does face some additional challenges. She must stretch out a bit to 7 furlongs and do so while facing some intriguing new faces. The Seeking the Ante was a very weak stakes event, as her main rival on paper was basically eased, beaten over 20 lengths in third. Now she’s coming up against a couple of horses who showed real promise breaking their maidens. One of those is Shesawildjoker, who actually defeated November Rein at Belmont in June when both were making their debuts. She was overmatched in the Adirondack and now drops back in against New York-breds. Yet I’m most interested in the last-out debut winner Classy Edition. This filly only got a 71 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut victory, a number that doesn’t make her fast enough to contend. However, that was a nearly impossible race to gauge from a speed figure standpoint, as they sealed the track for that race only before harrowing it again for races later in the day. It seems like the track slowed down for that race, but it’s hard to know how much. Regardless of that, she ran like a filly with talent, as she sat just off the pace before inhaling the leaders with an impressive turn of foot. I think she has some ability and she seems like one who will appreciate the added ground. Todd Pletcher is 8 for 16 (50%, $2.83 ROI) with New York-bred last-out debut winners in dirt sprints for their second starts, and half of those winners were 2-year-olds.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 6 with 2,3,5