by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 8 - 1 - 2
RACE 2: BUCKED TOOTH (#2)
Mandatory Payout is obviously the horse to beat and looms as a likely winner if he merely repeats his last race. While he’s competing for a higher claiming tag in this spot, this might actually be a drop in class, since he’s not facing a rival of the quality of Business Cycle, who beat him by a half-length last time. Mandatory Payout finished over 6 lengths clear of the rest of the field and earned a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The only problem with this horse is that it’s the only recent effort of his that makes him particularly formidable against this field. You can make some excuses for his prior performances, including two back when he was on a dead rail. Yet he’s still going to be a short price on the basis of one outlier performance. Furthermore, there isn’t a ton of pace in this race, and he might not be as close up going just 6 furlongs this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a “No Speed” situation, but there actually is a front-runner in this field in the form of Bucked Tooth. This gelding was beaten by a decent runner in his career debut and then was unwisely rated off a slow pace in his second start. He returned from a layoff two back and broke his maiden, earning a respectable 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure while leading throughout. You can ignore the turf race last time since that’s just not his preferred surface. He gets a positive rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who should be a perfect fit for him, and this barn can ship live runners to New York.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,5,6
RACE 4: ADRIATIC HOLIDAY (#8)
Astoria Kitten may go off as the favorite once again after getting bet down to be the even-money choice at Saratoga in her debut. She made a mild move on the far turn, but had little left for the stretch drive. While her effort was disappointing, that was a strong race. Winner English Breeze returned to finish 3rd in the P. G. Johnson with a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This filly has the pedigree to be a nice horse as a halfsister to talented runners like Sanctify ($174k), Rectify ($366k), and Satisfy ($254k), though only one of those was a turf winner. She was scratched out of that Sept. 6 race that was rained off the turf. She deserves another chance given the expectations first time out, but she has some improving to do. I prefer another runner with experience. Adriatic Holiday was entered for turf first time out, so the fact that she still attracted support on dirt suggests that she was well meant that day. Central Banker is 2 for 34 with first-time turfers and is 11% on turf overall. Yet she gets a ton of turf breeding from her dam, who was 3 for 24 ($184k, 80 Beyer), earning all of her victories on turf. This filly’s full sister is Niko's Dream, a stakes-placed two-time turf winner. Barclay Tagg adds blinkers for this second start, and she figures to take a big step forward getting on the right surface. The other runner to consider is More Glitter, who has some pedigree to handle the turf for Todd Pletcher, but she’s going to attract support based on her a strong dirt performance first time out.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6
RACE 5: KING’S HONOR (#6)
Turned Aside’s debut was very encouraging, as he showed good early speed while chasing a fast pace. He looked loaded when in behind the leaders at the quarter pole, but he just flattened out slightly once clear as the race fell apart late. Linda Rice is justifiably renowned for her excellent work with second-time starters, and she is 8 for 42 (19%, $2.09 ROI) with maidens making their second start in turf sprints. This colt has a right to be any kind, being by American Pharoah out of dam who was graded stakes-placed on turf. I won’t be at all surprised when he takes a big step forward in his second start, but the same is true for the colt drawn just to his outside. King’s Honor was quite keen through the early stages of his debut, but came under pressure around the far turn and could offer up no punch in the lane. Now cuts back and gets blinkers added for his second attempt, and there are some reasons to like this turnback. European sire Kingman was best as a miler and a number of his progeny have excelled over sprint distances. His dam was unraced, but she is a half-sister to some decent runners, including a stakes-winning turf sprinter in Europe. Jonathan Thomas is a remarkable 12 for 24 (50%, $3.90 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens on turf over 5 years. Furthermore, the race that he’s exiting may be stronger than some speed figures indicate due to the unusually slow pace that held back the final time. He adds blinkers for his second start and it woudn’t be surprising to see him show improved speed going this distance.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,9
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,3,4,8,9
RACE 7: MISS MYSTIQUE (#2)
Mentality may go off as the favorite in this spot as she makes just the third start of her 2019 campaign. She’s clearly good enough to win at this level based on her last race, but she hasn’t exactly improved much at all since early in her 3-year-old season, and it’s fair to wonder why she’s been off the track for so long this year. I’m using her defensively, but she was beaten as a heavy favorite last November by today’s rival Miss Mystique. Given the lack of pace in this race, I see no reason why the same scenario might not play out once again. Miss Mystique isn’t always the most trustworthy runner, especially coming out of the gate, but she’s faster than horses like Kitten’s Covergirl and Mentality when she breaks well. I thought Kendrick Carmouche did well to hustle her to the front and hold on for second behind Violent Times last time. There are no rivals of that quality in this field, and Miss Mystique’s best speed figures certainly put her in the mix. She’s my top pick, since I just don’t trust her rivals who will be short prices. That includes Albertville, who returns from an April layoff while dropping slightly in class. She didn’t get much pace to close into in that April performance, and she also reportedly had a bleeding issue that day, which may have hindered her performance. However, she’s unlikely to get much more pace ahead of her here, and it’s unclear just how good she is based on her French and German form. I’ll use her, but she’s not the kind of runner that I would want to support at a relatively short price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 8: BRONXVILLE (#6)
No Regrets is obviously the horse to beat, but I don’t want to accept a particularly short price on a horse who is 1-for-20 with 7 second-place finishers. In fact, he’s finished second in four of his last five starts. He’s arguably back in decent form since the claim by Dermot Magner, and he has a right to improve as he turns back to a more appropriate distance. Yet it’s not as if he’s earning speed figures that guarantee him victory at this level and there are some other intriguing contenders at much more enticing prices. Brockmoninoff has a right to do better while adding Lasix third off the layoff, and Our Stormin Norman is getting some class relief out of his prior turf effort at Saratoga. I’ll use all of these in some capacity, but my top pick is Bronxville. This gelding has only made one prior start on the turf and that came against a far stronger field going two turns last fall. He was only a 2-year-old then, and he’s subsequently proven that he’s better going shorter distances. That said, he wasn’t exactly disgraced while finishing just over 5 lengths behind subsequent graded stakes horses Demarchelier and Seismic Wave. He hasn’t been tried on turf since then, but it would appear that he was claimed out of his last race with the intent to target a spot like this. Bronxville actually does have enough turf pedigree, since his dam is a full-sister to Rebuttal, who was second in the Group 1 Middle Park on turf in England. Bruce Levine does not have strong statistics with horses switching to turf, but that doesn’t bother me so much with a horse who is going to be a big price.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,8