PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 7 - 9
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   9 - 4 - 10 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: POCKET PLAYER (#5)
The horse to beat obviously is Gosilently, who was scratched out of a race Wednesday in favor of this seven-furlong affair. The race he's exiting featured a very fast pace set by today's rival Summer Mischief, who basically ran off uncontrollably while wearing blinkers for the first time. He threw in the towel late, but Gosilently made the first move into that quick pace and was extremely game to nearly hang on for the win. He should have no trouble with this turnback and is the horse to beat. However, I want to focus on a runner who should offer significantly better value. Pocket Player has started twice on turf, both times as a 2-year-old. Two back, he finished a closing fourth behind the improved Voodoo Song, and then last time, he did well to run on for third despite a very wide trip. I thought he was somewhat against the race flow in each of those starts over the Aqueduct turf course, which favors runners who can save as much ground as possible. This horse possesses some talent and now makes his first start as a gelding while going out for capable turf trainer Tom Bush.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,7,9

RACE 4: NAPLES PARADE (#1)
Double Cast has run the best recent races at this level, but she's starting to run out of chances. In three straight starts, she has made the lead past midstretch and gotten run down by a stretch runner. That's not to say that she hasn't been game in defeat, but her riders have had trouble timing her run. She can win, but I prefer Naples Parade, who will be awfully tough here if she runs back to, or improves on, her lone start at Gulfstream from last winter. That day, she was away sluggishly, lagged far behind, and then unleashed a furious late rally to nearly get up and win. It's no surprise that she has ability since she's closely related to Zenyatta. Both are daughters of Street Cry, and Naples Parade's dam is a half-sister to the champion mare. Furthermore, Bill Mott has very good numbers (10 for 40, 25 percent, $2.41 ROI) with maidens coming off layoffs of 180 days or longer in turf routes.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6,8 with 3,6,8

RACE 8: TATHQEEF (#4)
Black Sea was installed as the morning-line favorite, and he very well may go off at the shortest price. However, I just haven't loved any of this runner's recent races. He's been facing some tougher fields, but he's also worked out fine trips. Last time, he saved ground for much of the way and just wasn't quite good enough. Today, I strongly prefer Tathqeef to the favorite and believe this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is a very likely winner of this race. He should appreciate stretching back out to this 10-furlong distance, at which he was successful back in the early summer. Furthermore, he actually ran much better than it seems last time at Saratoga considering the circumstances. That race was run during a time when the turf course was heavily tilted toward the inside paths, and Tathqeef was never racing near the rail, going three to four wide throughout. He closed well to be third and almost surely would have won with a better trip. He possesses the tactical speed to sit right off likely pacesetter Roman Approval early, and I think he can assert his superiority over that rival and hold off Black Sea late.

Win: 4
Exacta Key box: 4 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,3 with ALL

RACE 9: HARDLY MATE (#9) / LA MONEDA (#4)
There is a lot going on in this intriguing finale. I have to pick Hardly Mate on top off the trip she got in her last turf effort. After going to the back of the pack in the early stages that day, she was unwisely sent up the rail to make a premature move on the backstretch and ended up getting into a ton of trouble as she ran out of running room while making her run. She was claimed out of that race by Mike Maker, who does fantastic work with all types of turf claims. You can throw out her last race, which was rained off the turf, and now she gets back on the right surface for the new barn. A number of runners in this field are coming out of the ninth race on Aug. 7. I'm interested in horses who were contesting the fast early pace that day, and the one I want to use here is La Moneda. This filly was headstrong in the early stages and was one of many who were jockeying for early position heading into the clubhouse turn last time. From there, she tracked the pace and briefly made the lead in the stretch before flattening out late. She is a full sister to good New York-bred turf runners Dream Doctor and Palace Dreams, and she looks capable of following in their footsteps after an encouraging debut.

Win: 4,9
Exacta Key Box: 4,9 with 1,2,4,9,10