by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 2: 13 - 12 - 6 - 2 (updated for dirt)
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 10 - 3 - 9 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 14 - 8 - 10 (updated for dirt)
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 9 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 11 - 7 - 1 (updated for dirt)
RACE 1: I LOVE JAXSON (#2)
Southern King is likely to be a heavy favorite in this race as he makes his second start off the layoff. He tried turf in his return last time, and his performance suggests that the grass may actually be his preferred surface. He was off slowly and put in a strong late run to be third in a race that has produced a couple of next-out winners. Yet now Pletcher is returning to the dirt with this horse, and it might prove to be the right move, since he’s landed in an easier spot. Yet, I have some reservations. This horse doesn’t possess much early speed, so he’s likely to be outrun early in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners. Furthermore, I’m never a fan of horses switching surfaces too much, especially after a career best effort. I’m using him prominently, but I think he could prove vulnerable to an intriguing challenger. I Love Jaxson is a fascinating horse. He toiled in dirt sprints for the majority of 2018, unable to break through at this level before dropping into cheaper claiming races. He was off for a long time earlier this year and returned on the turf, which he doesn’t handle. Then previous trainer Michael Miceli, in what seemed like a desperate move, tried stretching him out on the dirt. It turns out this horse has more than enough stamina to handle route distances, as he ran away from that field, getting his last eighth in just over 12 seconds while winning by nearly 8 lengths. Perhaps even more interesting than that win is the fact that Linda Rice claimed him out of that spot. He certainly didn’t look like an appealing claim – even for $16,000 – off his prior form, but apparently someone had an inkling that improvement was forthcoming. Now Linda Rice is confidently moving him up in class, which is always meaningful for this barn, and he’s sporting an eye-catching workout two weeks ago at Saratoga. I won’t be surprised when it turns out this horse’s last race was no fluke and he pulls off the upset here.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,8
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 4,6,8
RACE 3: FIRST FOREVER (#7)
Passporttovictory is the horse to beat in this New York-bred claiming event, but I have some reservations about her at a short price. She would obviously be pretty formidable against this bunch if she were able to repeat her last effort. However, she now hasn’t been seen for nearly three months despite training at Saratoga during the summer. Furthermore, her connections are electing to shoot for this easier spot instead of an N2X against New York-breds. This mare does her best work over fast going and there is rain in the forecast for Friday, which could compromise her chances. Among the short prices, I actually prefer Archumybaby, who makes her second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. She had the misfortune of running into the stakes-quality mare Lady’s Island in that starter-allowance event last time, but she nevertheless ran on well to be second. I’m using both of these contenders, but I think this race is more wide open than it may appear at first glance. I’m taking a shot with First Forever, who makes her first start off the claim for Chris Englehart. While I’ve never been much of a fan of this filly, I cannot deny that her last effort was a significant improvement on her prior races for Linda Rice. She lost by 13 lengths, but I thought she did well to chase runaway winner Carrizo around the far turn and into the stretch before fading. That performance came for Rob Atras, but the Chris Englehart barn is coming off a very strong Saratoga meet. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’s fast enough to make the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and she would appreciate any moisture in the surface.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 6: TRIAL AND ERROR (#4)
The two fillies likely to garner the most attention are Stand for the Flag and My Happy Place, who both exit a seven-furlong maiden event at Saratoga. Stand for the Flag probably ran the better race that day, as she rallied strongly up the inside in a race that featured a fairly slow pace. She improved off the switch to Jason Servis, and she acts like a filly who will appreciate added ground. Yet I also think My Happy Place could benefit from the stretch-out. This daughter of Tapit is out of My Happy Face, who placed in multiple Grade 1 stakes, ranging in distances from seven to nine furlongs. She showed a ton of promise in her debut, but was not quite as effective second time out. Shug McGaughey tends to take his time with horses like this and it could be that she just needed some experience before delivering on that early promise. Yet both main contenders are closers, and I believe a lack of pace in this field could benefit one of their rivals. Trial and Error has yet to run as fast as the two favorites, but I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best she has to offer. A slow break cost her any chance in her debut. She took a big step forward second time out at Monmouth, finishing second behind next-out winner Bellera, who notably improved her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 12 points in a subsequent win. Trial and Error had no answer in the stretch, but she had set a very fast pace for the distance. It’s also possible that the rail was bad at Monmouth on July 6, as many riders were attempting to avoid it.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 2,3,6
RACE 7: ROSE FLOWER (#9)
Brooke Marie is getting a little class relief after closing well to be fourth in the Galway last time. That stakes drew a very competitive field and this filly did not get an ideal trip. She was shuffled to the back of the pack on the far turn and had to angle widest of all to find running room in the stretch. All things considered, she did well to only lose by 1 1/4 lengths. She figures to appreciate the slight stretch-out to six furlongs and may just be the kind of horse who prefers Belmont Park’s turf sprints. I’m using her prominently, but I’m pretty intrigued by Christophe Clement’s other entrant, Rose Flower. This German-bred filly raced four times in France and won both of her turf sprint appearances over seven furlongs. The most recent of those, the Prix Amandine, was an exceptional effort. Held up at the back of a 14-horse field for the majority of that race, she made an eye-catching late run through traffic in the final furlong to get up with a flourish at the finish. It’s unclear if she was beating a field of any quality, but she did earn a respectable 101 Timeform Rating, which certainly puts her in the mix against this group. The slight cutback to six furlongs isn’t ideal, but I like that Clement is running her back quickly, suggesting that she arrived in his barn in very good condition. There should be a little pace to set up her run with the likes of Saint Moon and European shipper Comedy in the field. The other horse that I want to use is Dancing Vega. This filly was bet down to a short price at Saratoga last time based on some impressive workouts in company with Uni. However, she failed to settle that day and had nothing left for the finish. Sometimes a turn-back in distance can help horses like this to relax. There’s obviously latent ability within this filly, and Chad Brown figures to extract it at some point.
Win: 9
Exacta Box: 3,5,9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 9 with 3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,6