by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   6 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 5 - 7 - 10
Race 5:   8 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   6 - 10 - 4 - 8
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 2 - 3

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 6: SATISFY (#7)
Lady Bergen has to be considered the horse to beat despite losing as the 7-5 favorite on Aug. 8. She did all the hard work on the front end that day, dueling with Sandy Belle through a fast first quarter-mile before opening up at the top of the stretch. She appeared to be a sure winner with a sixteenth of a mile to go but was run down by a fast-finishing longshot. A repeat of that effort makes her one of the top contenders in this race, but she is likely to face early pace pressure once again. Sandy Belle is back in the mix, and fillies like Byself and Noble Freud also possess ample early speed. For that reason, I prefer Satisfy, who figures to be sitting just off that early pace. This lightly raced 4- year-old has shown plenty of promise through her three career starts. She defeated three next-out winners in her commanding debut victory back in April, and then she lost nothing in defeat behind eventual Grade 1 Ballerina runner-up Still There on May 27. She returned at Saratoga last time and won convincingly over a group that may have been stronger than the speed figure suggests. All of the fillies who finished directly behind her returned to run well in a faster race. I like the outside post position for her, and she figures to sit a good trip.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 2,3,6
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with 2,3,5
 

RACE 8: CLOSER STILL (#1)
The likely favorite is Miz Mayhem, who is shooting for a sixth consecutive win as she makes her first start for the Jason Servis barn. She obviously must be used, but this race is far too competitive to accept a short price on a favorite. No fewer than six entrants return out of the Coronation Cup, a race that featured many rough trips and an interesting pace situation. Broadway Run was the winner that day, but she had many things break in her favor. Some of the likely speeds did not contest the pace, allowing her to set fairly moderate fractions on the front end. The race turned into a sprint to the wire as few horses changed position in the last eighth of a mile. She’s an honest filly who is in good form, but I prefer a few of those who finished behind her. Tesora was hindered by the pace dynamics of the Coronation Cup, as she was one of the only fillies who made any kind of late impact. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should aid her chances. I’m using her, but I’m most interested in the filly who had the roughest trip out of that common race. Closer Still broke from the rail and was shuffled to the back of the pack in the first furlong. From there, a chain reaction of riders taking up in front of her forced Julien Leparoux to sharply pull back on the reins and lose an iron as the field headed into the far turn. She briefly lost contact with the field as her rider corrected himself, seemingly losing all chance. Considering that trouble, it’s remarkable that she was able to pass half the filed in the stretch in getting up for fifth. According to Trakus, she ran the fastest final quarter (22.86 seconds) of anyone in that race. Her prior form is somewhat spotty, but she clearly has ability, as she showed in her second-place finish to Thewayiam at Gulfstream in January. The Mark Casse barn is due for some luck coming off a frustrating Saratoga meet.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,8,10
Trifecta: 1,2 with 3,4,8,10 with 1,2
 

RACE 9: MYSTERIO (#8)
Moneigh Moproblems strikes me as the type of heavy favorite that you’re supposed to view skeptically. He’s obviously run the fastest speed figures of any horse in this race, but the majority of those numbers have been achieved in turf races. When you isolate his dirt form, it’s pretty spotty, at best. Sure, he’s run some speed figures that would probably win races at this level, but he was also beaten by double-digit margins in those races. I’m just not convinced that he’s really a dirt horse, and it’s no certainty that we’re going to see his best effort as he takes another precipitous drop in class. The main issue with this race is that there are few obvious alternatives. Some may turn to the first time starters, but both are far too well-bred to be debuting for $20,000 tags. I’m more interested in some of the experienced runners with less obvious credentials. The horse that I want to bet is Mysterio. I had been under the impression that this runner was a turf horse based on his second career start, but I’m starting to wonder if I might have been mistaken about that. He possesses a versatile pedigree, and his return to dirt in his last start – the first for Leah Gyarmati – was an encouraging reversal on his prior turf form. Eric Cancel allowed him to settle far off the pace that day, and this horse responded very willingly in the lane, flying past rivals while getting up for third. That was undoubtedly a tougher spot than this race, and the stretch-out to 7 furlongs figures to help him.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,6