PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1/1A - 5 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   10 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 9 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 7 - 2 - 1A
Race 7:   8 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 3 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: ENCHANTERESSE (#1)
Penjade is the horse to beat, but she worked out a great trip last time, sitting well off a contest pace before just nailing the runner-up – who was setting those quick fractions – at the wire. She can win, but I don’t think she’s going to offer value. I don’t trust Azaelia, who has yet to run a particularly strong race in the U.S., and I’m not in love with Somethingelse’s Florida form. Therefore, I’ve landed on Enchanteresse at what should be a square price. You can throw out her last race, since she just hated the boggy turf course she encountered. Her prior effort, in which she was second to the talented Boreale, was solid. It seems like she’s finally found her best form now as a five-year-old, and she figures to work out a great trip stalking Kinsley Kisses early.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL

RACE 4: NUTZFORBOLTZ (#10)
Of the runners coming out of the sixth race on August 14, there’s no doubt that Mascarello ran the best race. He was sitting right behind a fast pace that completely fell apart, and he was game to only lose by a neck. If he repeats that effort, he has a big chance here. Shamcat makes some sense since he was facing tougher company last time. However, I just haven’t been thrilled by any of his prior efforts and think he’s going to be an underlay in this spot. I have to use both of these runners, but my top selection is Nutzforboltz. This horse was badly compromised by trips in both of his starts up at the Spa. He was off slowly two back in his return and was out of position throughout in a race dominated towards the front end. Then last time he was racing three- to four-wide all the way over a course that was strongly favoring inside runners. Now he gets back to Belmont, where he put in a huge effort behind the accomplished Black Tide in May. If he can find that form again, he will beat this field.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,3

RACE 7: ELOWEASEL (#8) / SPECIAL DIVIDEND (#1)
I don’t want either of the Linda Rice runners, both of whom have had plenty of chances at this level. Paz the Bourbon makes some sense, but I don’t think she’s actually getting any class relief here, and I think she needs to improve on her turf sprint efforts from this spring if she’s going to beat this group. I’m instead interested in a couple of prices. The more logical one is Eloweasel. This turnback to 6 furlongs should really suit her, and she’s run better than it appears in a few of her recent races. She’s not a horse that wants to go two turns, and she actually ran just fine behind the talented duo of Cherry Lodge and Rubilinda two back. Her best efforts give her a big chance. I’ll use her with the longshot Special Dividend, who makes her turf debut. I know this barn isn’t known for excelling with surface switches, but this filly has never really had a chance to try this surface before, given where and when she’s been running. She has pedigree to handle the turf, being by solid grass influence Girolamo, and out of a dam that produced turf sprint winner Spring Folly. I like that she’s been worked on turf twice for this return to the races, and think she could be a little sneaky in this wide-open race.

Win: 8
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1,8 with 1,3,6,7,8,10

RACE 9: PROST (#6)
Of the runners coming out of the first race on July 24, I prefer Nicholas and Me, who dueled through fast fractions before calling it quits in the lane. He now has a right to improve as he makes his first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart and shows up as a new gelding. The only issue is that there is a bit of speed in this race so he has to avoid getting caught up in a duel again. I think this race could come apart in the late stages, so I’m taking a shot with turnback Prost. This colt’s debut was actually better than it appears, since he was off slowly and made a premature move around the far turn. He actually got within a couple lengths of the leaders at the top of the stretch before getting tired late. He was off for a while, but should have gotten some needed fitness out of his nine-furlong return last time.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,8,10,11