PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   3 - 8 - 2 - 5

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: SERIOUS HAPPINESS (#4)
I found this to be a very confusing race, which is partly why I’ve ended up getting a little creative with my selection. I don’t like the morning-line favorite, Frosty Lady. Jason Servis is a great turf claiming trainer, but I’m guessing that even Servis thinks he might have made a bad claim with this mare. This lightly raced 6-year-old was a shadow of her former self when returning last month at Belmont, and now drops off the trainer switch. The horse to beat is Madison Blues, since she actually beat a decent field at Monmouth last time and she should work out a similar stalking trip here. However, I want to go in a different direction, and would suggest you give a long look to my pick: Serious Happiness. I know her turf races have been few and far between, but if you isolate those efforts, it’s pretty clear that she belongs here. She’s faced much tougher company in all of those grass races and should really appreciate this surface switch. It’s true that her recent form is questionable and that she isn’t projected to get much pace to close into, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives given her likely price.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,6,8
Trifecta: 1,2,6,8 with 1,2,3,6,8 with 4

RACE 4: MOMAMEAMARIA (#7)
Quezon has consistently run the fastest races, and she is a deserving favorite here. However, I have some trouble getting past her most recent effort. I know that she was facing tougher company in the Bed O’Roses, but she was in good position midway around the far turn, and just flattened out badly late. I think it’s fair to wonder whether she might have lost a step as a 5-year-old. That’s why I’m taking a shot against her with Momameamaria. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and she is very dangerous when left alone up front. She’s been a little inconsistent during her career, but she got very good for a few races last summer, and a return to that form gives her a real chance to pull off the upset here.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5

RACE 5: PAGLIACCI (#1)
Snap Decision is clearly the horse to beat. He was facing a tougher group of allowance runners last time, and was game to grind out a second-place finish as the slight favorite. That said, he’s been well-bet in both of his local allowance starts and has been a minor disappointment on each occasion. I’m just a little reluctant to take another short price on this horse. There is very little speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that Pagliacci may be in a position to control the proceedings from his inside post position. This horse has drastically improved in recent starts for Bill Mott, and actually ran better than it appears last time when he attacked a demanding pace before flattening out in the lane. Bill Mott’s barn has picked it up in recent weeks after a slow start to this meet.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,6

RACE 7: CHURCH SOCIAL (#7)
You have to be a little concerned about a lack of pace in this race since so many of the top contenders are late runners. The horse that should be able to take advantage of the situation is Grateful. She ran very well to hang on for second last time after chasing a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) in a race that was falling apart late. I believe she’s dangerous, but I have to give one more chance to Church Social. She’s never gone this far before and Joel Rosario must avoid letting her lose contact with the field, as she does tend to do. That said, she possesses a devastating late kick, and Rosario seems to understand that he needs to keep her outside of horses to get her to produce it. I thought her last race was exceptional, considering that the pace was so slow (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) and she still produced her finish.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,4,5

RACE 8: TOUCHOFSTARQUALITY (#8)
This is a deep and interesting race where a number of contenders are going to be attractive prices. Therefore, it might seem counterintuitive that I’m picking the morning-line favorite. I just couldn’t find any knocks against Touchofstarquality and believe he is going to be awfully tough for this field to handle. He was really good when winning off the layoff last time and Michelle Nevin gets a 93 Trainer Rating with horses making their second starts off a layoff. The real question for me is: Who am I using with him? I don’t trust likely co-favorite Seymourdini to bring his Laurel form to New York. Instead, I’ll use Virtual Machine, who ran a competitive race in the Westchester two back, and Hard Study, who has really improved for Pletcher and figures to get pace to close into.

Trifecta: 8 with 4,7 with 1,2,4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 8 with 1,2,5,6 with 4,7