PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 10:   9 - 8 - 3 -

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: DREAM ON CARA (#1)

I don’t have a strong argument against #2 Ranting other than the fact she figures to be a short price as the obvious runner with experience dropping in class to face New York-breds for the first time. She was part of the scramble for third place on debut behind a pair of runners who drew off from the field. She lacked early speed and was finishing well, so it’s a little surprising to see her back in another 5-furlong race rather than stretching out, but perhaps this was just what came up next. #5 Snowy Evening could take some money based on connections, but this really isn’t a turf pedigree. She’s by Frosted, who hasn’t had much success as a sire overall, and is a half-sister to dirt performers My Boy Tate and Charlie McCoy. Among the debut runners, I’d much rather go for the pedigree on #1 Dream On Cara. Central Banker is a decent 9% turf sprint sire, and interestingly is produced from the same female family as dam Dreaming of Cara. (For the pedigree nerds, this filly is inbred 3x4 to Merion Miss, the dam of Arkansas Derby winner Private Emblem.) I was a huge fan of this filly’s dam. She handled turf and she’s produced a couple of turf winners, topped by stakes-placed fillies Cara’s Dreamer and English Breeze. Mitch Freidman isn’t known for debut success, but he did win with one firsters at 99-1 a couple of seasons ago.

WIN: #1 Dream On Cara, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: GREAT WORKOUT (#1)

Obviously, #3 Cousteau and #4 O’Trouble look pretty imposing as both come into this claiming affair with superior form and speed figures. Between the two, I do prefer Cousteau, who beat a tougher group of starter allowance foes last time in his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. It’s understandable that Atras is dropping him in class off that win since he really doesn’t have the form to be competitive at the N1X level. The barn has great statistics off wins, so I won’t be surprised when he makes it two in a row. I’ve just never found him to be the easiest horse to trust, and he’ll be a short price. O’Trouble has more questions to answer. While he did run reasonably well going this distance last time, multiple horses from that May 8 race have not returned to back up the speed figures they received. I prefer this horse going shorter than a mile and think he’s vulnerable as one of the favorites. I’m going in a different direction with #1 Great Workout. This guy isn’t the most genuine sort and sometimes doesn’t seem to have his mind on running. However, I do think longer is better for him, and all of his recent dirt races have come over sprint distances. He’s run comparable speed figures on turf, but I think he’s more of a dirt horse, so I like him getting back on this surface. It’s also interesting that Linda Rice claims him back for $35k after losing him for $25k following a couple of lackluster efforts earlier this winter. He’s long been a work in progress, and perhaps she’s figured out a way to keep him a little more engaged this time.

WIN: #1 Great Workout, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5: GAGLIANO (#6)

I understand that #5 Trinity Titoli can win this race with a repeat of her last effort, but I think she’s a dubious proposition at a very short price. She got a good trip stalking the pace last time and was able to hold on for second in that large field. However, things could be more difficult for her today with the stretch-out to 7 furlongs and the presence of #7 Love That Face to her outside. This Mike Miceli runner was also in that June 5 affair, but she was away very slowly, which prevented her from attending the pace. This time she figures to get a more aggressive ride from Dylan Davis and I won’t be surprised when both of these runners come up empty in the late stages. I want someone who can pick up the pieces and my best idea is #6 Gagliano. I know she’s a little hard to take given her 1 for 34 lifetime record. However, she did show some subtle improvement this past winter, picking up a series of checks at this level during the Aqueduct meet. I thought she was left with a little too much to do two back when she was finishing well going a mile. Shorter is probably better for her and I don’t care about the turf race last time. At something around her morning line odds, I’m willing to give her a shot.

WIN: #6 Gagliano, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7: BALLYDOOLEY (#2)

The short prices in this optional claimer are a little tough to swallow. That’s especially true for #3 Artemus Citylimits, who just seems to have developed an aversion to winning races. He’s finished in the money in every start since his last victory a year ago, but he just consistently fails to get the job done despite working out good trips. I don’t dispute that he possesses the best form in this field, but he’s just hard to support from a win perspective. I also have some reservations about #6 Maxwell Esquire, who looks like the clear second choice. He defeated Artemus Citylimits two back when getting a good setup from off the pace. However, he didn’t look like himself in his first start of the claim for Linda Rice last time, never hitting his best stride in a race that was won from off the pace by Voodoo Zip. He has to do better here, though he is getting some class relief. #4 Fauci is another coming out of some tough races, but I didn’t like his effort last time when he came off the bridle a long way from home. I don’t see a ton of speed in this race aside from Artemus Citylimits, and I won’t be surprised if his connections try to get him off the pace here based on the way he coughed up leads in his last two starts. That could make #2 Ballydooley dangerous on the front end. I know he comes in with form that doesn’t quite stack up against the rest, but Michelle Nevin is bringing him back off the layoff in an ambitious spot. He’s a horse who showed steady improvement last year and proved dangerous any time he was left alone on the front end. It certainly doesn’t hurt to get Joel Rosario aboard and Michelle Nevin has been in the midst of a very strong meet.

WIN: #2 Ballydooley, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8: HOP PICKER (#4)

A solid case can be made for 5 of the 6 runners in this field competitive maiden field and even outsider Dolce Sera ran a competitive race at this level three back. The horse to beat is probably #5 Precursory, who earned a solid speed figure when finishing third at this level last time. She’s already proven she handles the one-mile distance, which is a question for some others in here. She ranged up like she might win last time but just flattened out a bit in the late stages. Perhaps that’s why Bill Mott adds blinkers for this third start, and she shows a nice workout over the training track last week. Todd Pletcher has a pair of entrants, though I’m a little skeptical of both. #6 Quotabelle didn’t finish after showing speed last time, and could play out as the pacesetter on the stretch-out. #3 Don’t Overlook Me finished better than her stablemate last time and is bred to go longer. However, she’s been a disappointment in both starts and is overdue to show some ability. Of the runners stretching out, I’m more convinced by #1 Demandsrespect. She closed well after getting outrun in the slop last time, and is out of a high-quality dam that could handle a mile. My top pick is #4 Hop Picker, who actually cuts back slightly from 1 1/16 miles. She was disappointing as the 2-5 favorite that day in a race that looked very weak for the level. However, she had been off for 3 months since her promising debut and ran like a filly that might have needed the start. She traveled well early, showing improved tactical speed, but just got tired at the end. She’s since been put through a much more rigorous series of workouts than she had coming into the last race, so I’m expecting a step forward. She’s bred to be a good one, and I doubt we’ve yet seen the best from this McGaughey runner.

WIN: #4 Hop Picker, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 9: COINAGE (#4)

#2 Annapolis would have been the favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but was forced to miss that race with a minor issue. He made his belated return in the Penn Mile last time and ran better than the result would indicate. That turf course was a bog, and produced some chaotic results. This guy closed determinedly over that demanding course, and should have gotten plenty of fitness out of that performance. Pletcher understandably opts to go for this easier spot rather than trying the G1 Belmont Derby. If he still possesses the talent we saw from him last year, he’s going to be a handful. The wild card in this field is #5 Boston Tea Party, who steps up into stakes company right off his debut. He was a well-kept secret that day, going off at 11-1, but he delivered in a big way. He traveled strongly while racing 3-wide and took over impressively at the head of the lane. Tony Dutrow’s barn has really come alive during the past several weeks and he’s not shying away from throwing this guy into a tough spot right off that debut win. I’m more interested in the other recent maiden winner #7 Double Clutch, who is ambitiously spotted here after breaking his maiden at Keeneland. He got a great trip, but I liked the way he burst clear from that field late. Rusty Arnold is high on this horse, and he’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to Gear Jockey. A couple of runners exit the G2 American Turf at Churchill Downs. #6 Smokin’ T ran pretty well that day and came back to just miss in the Audubon. He's not impossible here, but I prefer the other one from the American Turf. #4 Coinage faded late in in that spot, but I don’t want to be too hard on him for that effort. He didn’t break that sharply and got very rank under Florent Geroux while making a premature move up to contest the pace while racing wide into the clubhouse turn. I like that he now gets Luis Saez back aboard, which is significant for a horse that can be difficult to ride at times. This one-turn mile should suit him well, and he figures to be a square price in the face of some runners with more apparent upside.

WIN: #4 Coinage, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Double Clutch, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 10: RENT CONTROL (#9)

#3 Hope for the Best and #4 Mo Damorninggrouch are the logical contenders in this finale. The former is a first time starter going out for a barn that does well with these types, and she is a half-sister to turf winner Timeless Journey. However, she’s going to be a short price by default in this maiden claiming field and others are a little more interesting. Mo Damorninggrouch ran reasonably well in both starts at this level to begin her career before she was simply outrun against a tougher rival last time. She’s dropping back down to the right level, but I didn’t see anything particularly clever about her. There are two interesting runners in this field. One of those is #8 Laughter, who drops down to the maiden claiming level for the first time. She didn’t do much running in her open company debut at Tampa. However, her last race is worth a viewing, as she was actually up close early before getting dragged back through the pack while getting rank under Eric Cancel. She had no finish after that, but now she’s turning back in distance and getting a rider switch to Javier Castellano. My top pick at a bigger price is #9 Rent Control. She ran off on the front end in her return from the layoff two back, setting unreasonable early fractions for the distance and understandably fading late. I think her connections may have overreacted to that result last time when she was rated too far off the pace and only hit her best stride too late. I’m hoping that Eric Cancel can find the happy medium here as she makes her third start off the layoff because I do think this filly has more ability than her results thus far would suggest.

WIN: #9 Rent Control, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 8