PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 9 - 7 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 4: FLINTSHIRE’S ROCK (#5)
Majestic Sky is a logical favorite after twice finishing second at this level in his two prior turf attempts. However, his best effort came going 7 furlongs, and he wasn’t quite as effective at a mile last time, so I’m a little concerned about this further stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. He arguably has some margin for error here, since the others just haven’t shown much on turf, but he’s still not the kind of horse that I want at a short price. Orb in the Tower seems like the most logical alternative, but it’s not as if he has a ton of turf pedigree. Orb is a below-average 7% turf sire, and while one sibling did win on the turf this is much more of a dirt family. Pletcher has had some success with this turf to dirt move in the past, but it’s not like this horse is going to be much price with Irad Ortiz riding. I’m going in a different direction with Flintshire’s Rock. I’m hoping he just needed that start off the layoff last time, as he made a mild move coming to the quarter pole before getting bumped and flattening out. He was facing a vastly superior field that day and he’s getting some pretty significant class relief here. I don’t love him, but he feels like the most intriguing option in a race where all of the short prices are flawed.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7

RACE 6: SADLER'S JOY (#3)
I don’t quite understand the public’s love affair with Gufo, who is starting to resemble a younger version of Sadler’s Joy. They both possess electrifying late kicks, but they just rarely get the job done against top company. Gufo really had little excuse to lose the Man O’ War two back, when he had everything go his way from a pace standpoint and he just couldn’t get past a game Channel Cat in the late stages. I don’t think that was a particularly strong field despite the Grade 1 designation (after all, Shamrocket was fourth by just 1 1/2 lengths). Gufo did finish third in a much tougher spot last time when charging late in the Manhattan. Yet he once again left himself with way too much ground to make up. I don’t think it’s clear that he necessarily gets better with added ground, and he’s going to be a pretty short price. I’m generally somewhat against the Man O’ War horses in here, and that includes Moon Over Miami, who got a better trip than Gufo and just had no late punch. Following the scratch of my original top pick, I'm happy to elevate the aforementioned Sadler’s Joy. This 7-year-old could get somewhat overlooked here even as he drops into a listed stakes. He’s developed a reputation as a bit of a hanger over the past few seasons, but he’s had some subtle trips in recent starts. Jose Ortiz made a badly timed move last time when rushing up into an honest pace on the backstretch. He ran better than Moon Over Miami that day, and his prior form is not nearly as disappointing as it might appear. He was given way too much ground to make up late in the Red Smith last year, and prior to that he was no match for the vastly improved Channel Maker. He figures to get a suitable turf course for his running style, and I don't think he's any less talented than the favorites.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,5,9

RACE 9: CARTOUCHE (#1)
The likely favorites in here do very little for me. Day’s Humor is arguably the horse to beat after finishing second at this level last time in her turf debut. However, she got a great trip and ride from Kendrick Carmouche that day and just wasn’t quite good enough to defeat a merely decent rival in Corey Scores. This time she figures to face significant early pressure from Train to Artemus, and she’s going to take more money merely due to the rider switch to Irad Ortiz. Train to Artemus would also be a contender if she starts here. However, I wasn’t thrilled with her only turf start at Kentucky Downs last year. Her turf action was somewhat choppy and she was facing a very weak field for that level. I suppose she can improve, but it’s not like she’s going to be much price either. I prefer Cartouche getting back to turf. This filly has only tried two turns on grass and she ran well in both of those starts as a 3-year-old. She’s since returned sprinting on the main track and has shown that she’s probably better over shorter trips. Getting back on turf going a sprint distance makes plenty of sense, and she’s shown the versatility to come from off the pace. These connections can be dangerous when shipping in to NYRA.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 2,7,9