by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 10 - 7 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 1 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 6: 12 - 2 - 1 - 10
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 8 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 11: 9 - 12 - 1 - 5
RACE 4: ELEGANT ZIP (#4)
Newly Minted comes into this race undefeated and untested. She drew away from a good field in her debut and was subsequently flattered by the performances of Bank Examiner and Doll, who finished first and second in a maiden race Saturday. Newly Minted then handled her stakes debut with ease, showing no ill effects from the short turnaround. She will be encountering a fast track for the first time, and she may have to deal with Cash Offer on the front end, but she is pretty formidable. Espresso Shot is the most logical alternative as she drops into New York-bred company after trying open-stakes foes in her last two starts. She bested a salty group in the Busher and could have pursued the Kentucky Oaks, but her connections wisely targeted this race instead. I’m willing to forgive her poor effort in the Gazelle since she's not as effective around two turns and the slow pace worked against her. Espresso Shot should have no trouble transitioning her effective turn of foot to seven furlongs, and I think she’s quite dangerous. I’m using both favorites prominently, but I want to take a shot with Elegant Zip at a much more enticing price. This filly ran better than it appears in the Maddie May, as she was caught in behind tiring runners approaching the quarter pole and had to weave through traffic inside, whereas Pat's No Fool and Wadadli Princess made unencumbered outside runs. The slight turnback should benefit her since she was effective sprinting earlier in her career. She was far keener with blinkers last time, and that improved tactical speed should aid her as she cuts back in distance.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7
Trifecta Box: 2,4,7
RACE 6: VINDA MACHINE (#12)
Mike’s Girl has to be considered the horse to beat as she drops down from maiden special weight company into this maiden claiming event. She made her first start off the layoff and her first start for the Danny Gargan barn last time. While she faded to finish fourth, she battled on gamely going a distance that may be too far for her. She should appreciate the slight cutback to 6 furlongs. My top pick at a better price is Vinda Machine. This George Weaver filly was originally intended for turf, as she made her debut on this surface late last year. While that performance hardly jumps off the page, she actually ran better than it appears. The pace of that race was quite slow for the distance, so she was badly compromised by dropping so far back early, and she was one of the few horses who was running on at the end of that race. Since then she’s raced only on dirt and has failed to make much of an impact, but she did run an improved race on Lasix last time. Weaver bred, owns, and trains this filly, so I’m not too concerned that he ran her so cheaply over the winter. Her dam, Vinda, was arguably best on turf, earning 3 of her 5 career victories on this surface, and her sire Freud certainly gets turf progeny.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,2,10
RACE 7: STILL THERE (#3)
Still There and Kathryn the Wise figure to vie for favoritism in this spot, but I strongly prefer the Dane Kobiskie mare. Still There showed a high level of ability right from the start as she trounced the talented Satisfy in her only prior dirt start against state-breds. Her Ballerina performance behind Marley's Freedom was superb and a repeat of that effort would make her a very likely winner of this race. She disappointed in the Gallant Bloom to close out 2018, but she was put in an uncomfortable spot, wedged between horses in tight quarters in upper stretch. The stretch-out to a mile is a minor concern, but her ample talent can help her overcome any stamina limitations. Her trainer is 8 for 38 (21 percent, $3.56 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. I have far less confidence in Kathryn the Wise. This lightly-raced 6-year-old mare won this race two years ago, but did so over her preferred sloppy track. She was away for over 16 months after that and took a few starts to shake off the rust upon return. She got back to top form in the La Verdad two back, but she again benefited from wet conditions. She has yet to produce such an effort over a fast track. This speedy mare will have to deal with Frostie Anne on the front end, which should allow Still There to work out a perfect trip in behind them. The other horse that I want to use is Bonita Bianca. She dominated the Empire Distaff over this track last fall, but has failed to recapture that form in three subsequent outings. Yet she may not have appreciated 9 furlongs in the Bay Ridge, and then was 2-wide against a rail bias that aided Frostie Anne in the Biogio's Rose. Servis can be quite sneaky with runners like this, so heed any clues offered by the tote board. She is hard to trust, but her best efforts put her in the mix. I would also use Midnight Disguise underneath, since she finally gets on a fast track and should appreciate the cutback to a one-turn mile.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,7 with 2,4,5,6,7
RACE 9: BANKIT (#8)
Blindwillie McTell may go off as a slight favorite as he makes his second start off a layoff. This gelding showed a ton of ability over the winter, winning his maiden in a stakes event before getting another stakes victory in January. He was away for more than three months but returned in solid form, contesting a fast pace before getting run down by Funny Guy. He figures to step forward off that performance, but he must handle the slight stretch-out to seven furlongs and fend off challenges from main rivals Le General and Stone Breaker, who are making their stakes debuts. Le General looked great winning his last two starts last fall for Michelle Nevin, but he missed a Derby prep over the winter and was sent to the sidelines. He’s returning at an appropriate distance, but this is a tough spot in which to launch a comeback. Stone Breaker has a recency edge on all of them as he seeks his third consecutive victory. He’s been improving with every start, but he is stretching out to this distance for the first time. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so I’m taking a shot against these short-priced runners with the late-running Bankit. I’ve always felt that this horse would be suited to a turnback in distance, especially as his connections were attempting to turn him into a Kentucky Derby horse this spring. He got the chance to go shorter last time, but he caught a sloppy track for the first time in his career and did not care for it at all. He will be back on fast going Monday, and I think we’re going to see a much better performance.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,6,10
Trifecta: 8 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,5,6,10
RACE 10: SYNDERGAARD (#2)
Pat On the Back nearly won this race last year but had the misfortune of encountering eventual Whitney winner Diversify, and he went on to establish himself as one of the best New York-breds in the country last year. He returned last time in the Affirmed Success, and the six furlongs of that race might have been short of optimal for him. Yet he got a favorable pace setup and gamely ran down that field. A mile is arguably his best distance, and his versatile running style makes him dangerous. I prefer him to main rival Giant Expectations, who figures to attract some support as he moves back into the New York-bred ranks. While he’s been competitive in graded stakes events, he was not meeting the toughest of fields in either the Essex or Oaklawn Handicap, so I’m not sure he’s actually getting much, if any, class relief here. Honor Up also merits strong consideration as he drops out of the Grade 1 Carter. Prior to that ambitious placing, he had won 4 of 5 starts for Michelle Nevin. He twice got the better of Syndergaard over the winter, but I think the John Terranova trainee may be able to turn the tables in this spot. Syndergaard figures to be a much bigger price than those aforementioned rivals, and he’s maintained deceptively strong form throughout 2019 despite failing to win. He got a great trip in the Haynesfield but at least proved that he can still get today’s one-mile distance. He was too aggressively ridden in the Tom Fool and then couldn’t keep up early in the Affirmed Success. I actually prefer him going longer at this point in his career, and he projects to work out a great stalking trip. He’s continued to train very strongly, and I think he’s sitting on a big effort.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 11: BLOOD RED SKY (#9)
Schwarbertown is the horse to beat in the finale as he makes his turf debut. He was intended for this surface first time out and he clearly has the pedigree to handle it. He actually ran fairly well in that dirt debut despite the fact that he was dismissed at 11-1. He showed good speed from his inside post position before abruptly dropping back on the turn. It briefly appeared as if he was going to finish off the board, but he rallied again in the stretch to take the lead before getting nosed out at the wire. If he improves on that effort with the surface switch, he’s a likely winner. I’m just no enamored with any of the runners coming in with prior turf form. Wild William and Causeforcelebration ran reasonably well last year, but both had their chances to break through at this level. Causeforcelebration is getting an interesting trainer switch and may get somewhat dismissed off his recent dirt races, but I still can’t pick him on top. If I’m going to take a first time turfer, I’d rather go for a price, so I’m taking a shot with Blood Red Sky. This gelding took no money and did little running in his dirt debut at Charles Town at the end of last year. Yet now he goes out for Rob Atras, whose barn has been having more success in recent weeks after a bit of a cold streak. Moving to turf makes plenty of sense, since that’s clearly the surface he’s bred to relish. He’s by Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Red Rocks out of a dam whose 4 wins were all earned over the turf. It’s unclear if he has much ability, but he’s supposed to show up with a much better effort on the grass.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,12