by David Aragona
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Race 1: 10 - 3 - 2 - 11
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 7 - 9 - 6 - 8
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 4 - 9
Race 6: 7 - 9 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 6 - 10
Race 8: 6 - 10 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 10 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 10: 2 - 7 - 11 - 3
RACE 1: CRATER RIM (#10) / I LIKE YOUR STYLE (#3)
I’m not enamored with many of those that are likely to take money in this spot. Goldtown ran a competitive speed figure in her debut, but she’s been entered a scratched multiple times against cheaper company in recent months. Headfirst actually ran fine in her last turf start at Aqueduct and should appreciate the class relief, but she does need to improve. The horse with the best recent turf race is actually Crater Rim. She was squeezed back at the start that day and raced far back in the early going. It took Angel Arroyo a while to get her out into the clear in the lane, but she was absolutely rocketing past horses in the final eighth of a mile once fully set down. If she repeats that performance here with a cleaner trip, she should be tough in this field of suspect runners. I also want to use first time turfer I Like Your Style at a price. Langfuhr is a solid turf sire, and her dam was a multiple turf winner. There’s also plenty of turf influence stemming from her second dam, Irish Actress. Jeremiah Englehart has had recent success with his turf sprinters, and this filly can use her speed to take them a long way up front.
Win: 3,10
Exacta Key Box: 3,10 with 2,3,8,10,11
RACE 5: COURAGEOUS CHANGE (#6)
Like today’s first race, the options are fairly limited among those with turf form. Nazay is the deserving favorite after twice finishing third against maiden special weight company last season. Her return race going a mile was probably just a prep, and now she drops to a realistic level for her return to sprinting. Another runner likely to take money is Frosted Mint Chip, who makes her debut for John Terranova. This barn has had plenty of success with horses debuting on turf in recent years, especially in sprints. I’ll use both, but the horse that interests me most in this race figures to be a big price. Courageous Change finished well back in her only turf starts on Apr. 27, but that was a better performance than it appears to be at first glance. She was reserved well off the pace by a low-percentage bug rider and raced wide all the way around the far turn. The race was dominated on the front end, and also seemed to favor horses that saved ground. Courageous Change never threatened the winner, but she did run well to nearly get up for third under less than ideal circumstances. Now she gets a massively positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado and turns back to a more appropriate sprint distance.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,9
RACE 6: SPLIT TIME (#7)
Midnight Disguise is probably the horse to beat as she drops back in against New York-breds. She’s the kind of horse that I usually like in these situations. She’s a closer in routes who is now turning back into a sprint, where she’s just naturally going to get a more honest early pace. Her most recent effort in the Gazelle was disappointing, but that race was basically dominated on the front end. I thought she ran extremely well two back in the Busher, and if she repeats that performance she will be awfully tough to beat. On the other hand, this is a Plan B after she was initially targeted at the Black-Eyed Susan last week. I think her biggest challenge may come from her stablemate Split Time. I know that she looks slower on paper, but I like this filly’s races. She was utterly dominant in her two wins on wet tracks over the winter, as Junior Alvarado did very little with her in the late stages. She was facing a weaker field in her stakes debut last time, but she didn’t really get a chance to assert her superiority as she was pinned down on the rail for much of the race and got clear only in the late stages. There is speed in this race, but I don’t expect them to be flying up front, and Split Time is quick enough to stay within range early. I’m using her with the favorite, as well as the logical Letmetakethiscall, and the speedy Baby Boss.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,8,9
Trifecta: 7,9 with 7,9 with 2,3,5,8
RACE 7: A TRUE GIANT (#3)
Retonova and A True Giant were supposed to face off in that April 22 stakes race, but A True Giant was scratched at the gate after acting up. Retonova won that day, but he had to work harder to do so than I would have liked. I know the speed figures indicate it was a good effort, but he’s facing a significantly tougher field this time. Getting scratched out of that race may have been a blessing in disguise for A True Giant, who would have been coming back in just 11 days. Now he has more time between starts and I think that makes him a formidable presence. He earned a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that debut win, which is among the highest numbers in the field. We saw one of the soundly beaten also-rans come back to win his next start, which suggests that it may have simply been a very strong race. While Morning Breez and Sea Foam also possess some speed, I’m not convinced that they’re quite as fast as A True Giant, if he breaks cleanly. Over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is 7 for 19 (37 percent, $3.53 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints at NYRA tracks. I’m primarily using him with logical contender Aveenu Malcainu, who gets some needed class relief after running against open graded stakes company in a series of races. He actually ran pretty well in the Bay Shore last time after attending a fast pace that collapsed.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7,10
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with 2,5,6,10
RACE 9: PAT ON THE BACK (#10) / UNCLE SIGH (#1)
Diversify is a deserving favorite in this race, but I think this might be the time to take a shot against him. His return in the Charles Town Classic was alarmingly dull, as he quit midway though the race. He’s obviously run a number of races that would easily beat this field, but a one-turn mile is not his best distance and he will have to deal with a slew of early challengers for the front end. Speeds like Control Group, Jewel Can Disco, and Mr. Buff all need to be forwardly placed to have their best chance, and that could compromise Diversify. I want to focus on runners that can close from off the pace. My top pick is Pat On the Back, who finished strongly in his return from the layoff last time in the Affirmed Success. That effort, coupled with his excellent third-place effort in the Hudson last fall, suggests that he has moved forwardly significantly in recent months. Six furlongs is probably a bit short for him, but he nevertheless put forth the best effort of his career in a race that otherwise held together on the front end. He’s been successful going as far as 1 1/8 miles in the past, so this one-mile distance should be perfect for him. The trainer switch to the hot Jeremiah Englehart barn doesn’t hurt, either. The other horse that interests me at a price is Uncle Sigh. He actually ran very well within the context of that April 28 race, as he chased a fast pace and stayed on the best of the other speeds. He appears to be back in top form as a 7-year-old, and he’s shown himself to be capable of closing from off the pace in the past.
Win: 1,10
Exacta Key Box: 1,10 with 1,4,7,8,10
Trifecta: 10 with 1,7,8 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 10: GOODBYE BROCKLEY (#2)
I have no strong argument against the likely favorite Cumbria. She did get a perfect trip when breaking her maiden last time, but she also ran quite well to win that day, as there were large gaps between those left in her wake. If she repeats that performance, she may just be too good for this group. However, this is a large field, and I think there are some intriguing runners that could get ignored in the wagering. The one that I want to focus on is Goodbye Brockley. A few horses are coming out of that 7th race on Apr. 21, and I thought that Goodbye Brockley had the toughest trip of those. She was always about 3-wide around the turns, and she encountered some minor traffic trouble late as she ducked in behind horses in the last eighth of a mile. All things considered, she was finishing strongly at the end while under minimal pressure from Manny Franco. Phil Serpe now adds blinkers for her second start off the layoff, which may have her placed a bit closer to the pace. She also figures to just be a fitter horse with that experience under her belt. This filly showed some promise last season, and I believe she has a right to take a step forward now as a three-year-old.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,7