PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   16 - 15 - 13 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 5 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 10
Race 9:   9 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 10:   5 - 14 - 7 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 1: DEVIL BOY (#6)
The day’s opener boils down to a two-horse race between the second and third-place finishers from the extraordinarily fast maiden race won by River Dog earlier this month. Big Bobby undoubtedly ran the faster race that day as he ranged up racing wide on the far turn and gamely chased home the winner. He earned a strong 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and he still has upside in his second start for Bill Mott, especially considering that he didn’t take much money in his debut. I’m not against him, but I do believe that his main rival Devil Boy is likely to take the bigger step forward. This uncoupled stablemate for that race’s winner River Dog had been working with that foe in the mornings, but their trips in the afternoon couldn’t have been more different. Whereas River Dog broke alertly and took over on the far turn, Devil Boy found himself at the back of the pack after breaking tardily. Jose Ortiz didn’t seem to feel any urgency after the start, as he rated this horse at the back of the 12-runner field until they approached the top of the stretch. Once Devil Boy straightened up for the drive, he kicked into high gear and produced an impressive late burst to get up for third. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter mile in a strong 23.46 seconds, topped only by winner River Dog’s closing fraction. If he breaks alertly this time, I think we’re going to see him much closer to the pace. The other runner that I would want to use, strictly underneath my top pick, is Arms an Armor. He was chasing superior runners in this debut against open company at Oaklawn last time and could have more to offer against New York-breds.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,8
Trifecta: 6 with 8 with 1,3,7

RACE 2: ELECTRIC YOUTH (#16)
If this second race gets transferred to the main track I want to focus on Main Track Only runners. Turf entrant Time Limit would make some sense based on her juvenile form, but I don’t trust her coming back off a lengthy layoff. Snicket would be an exotics factor on either dirt or turf, but she has proven that she wants no part of winning races, routinely settling for runner-up finishes. The two Main Track Only runners that interest me most are Beautiful Karen and Electric Youth. The former made an encouraging return to the races last time, overcoming a poor start to finish in a photo for third, despite fighting rider Eric Cancel’s restraint in the early going. She had done well to survive some fast paces over the winter and could be improving now. Yet my top pick would be the filly drawn to her outside, Electric Youth. She was visually impressive when breaking her maiden two back against a weaker field. And last time I thought she ran much better than her final position would indicate, as she was off slowly and lost momentum when squeezed back between horses in the stretch. Her performance really wasn’t any worse than that of Rainbow Gal, who contests the Bouwerie later on this card.

Win: 16
Exacta Box: 15,16

RACE 9: GOOD CREDENCE (#9)
Mrs. Orb is always a contender in these New York-bred stakes events, having attained remarkable consistency over the past couple of seasons. She’s only finishined out of the exacta once in her last 11 starts, and went out a winner when last seen in the La Verdad back in January. A flat mile is a perfect distance for her and she has a versatile running style that should allow her to work out a trip. I have no knocks against her, other than the fact she could go favored in a fairly competitive event. Espresso Shot and Love and Love filled out the exacta in the Biogio’s Rose back in March, with the former getting the better of the other Mike Miceli runner over today’s distance. Espresso Shot is just as good as Mrs. Orb when she’s at her best, and her recent form has generally been strong. I’m using both of these mares, but I think there are some intriguing new faces stepping up out of allowance company. The one that I prefer is Good Credence. This filly took her game to the next level late last year when impressively dominating a N2X allowance race by over 6 lengths back in October. Her connections may have gotten a little too ambitious after that, taking a shot in the Grade 3 Rampart at Gulfstream. While she finished off the board, she actually put in a solid effort in defeat. She was shuffled back coming around the far turn and might have attained a higher placing if more aggressively handled. All things considered, that was a strong race won by top mare Letruska. Good Credence needs to be at her best as she returns from a layoff, but she should be a square price in this spot and she’s one of the few fillies in this race who still has real upside.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 9 with 4,6 with 2,4,6,7,8

RACE 10: LASS (#5)
I’d still want to take a shot against Tales I Winit. Among the shorter prices, I’d give slight preference to also-eligible Quantitativebreezin, who is actually a half-sister to Mrs. Orb, despite having never tried dirt in her career. Yet I don’t trust either of them to show up on the main track. I’m most interested in Lass at a price. This filly was entered for turf, probably due to the fact that she’s a half-sister to this stable’s Outrageous Bet. However, she looks like more of a dirt horse based on her last effort, in which she closed gamely to pass some tired rivals despite racing greenly. That was a reasonably fast race for the level and she could be dropping into an easier spot this time. She’ll get ignored on the tote board due to the connections, but she has just as might right to step forward here as anyone else.

Win/Place: 5