PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 10 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   7 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 6:   16 - 5 - 8 - 13
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 7 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 7: TIZ HE THE ONE (#2)
Following the scratch of probable favorite Expert, I won’t get much of a price on my top pick. However, I still think Tiz He the One is a very likely winner of this race. This gelding appears to have gone off form lately, but he has plenty of back class. He earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 118 and 119 in late 2018 when winning races at Laurel going this distance. His recent form is a little spotty, and he clearly tailed off when claimed by the Mike Maker barn this summer. However, now his former trainer Linda Rice dips back in to claim him. Over the past 5 years, Rice is 12 for 26 (46%, $2.59 ROI) first off the claim with horses going from sprints to dirt routes. She has to get this runner to improve, but it’s worth noting that his last effort at Saratoga isn’t quite as bad as it seems. He got an uncomfortable trip that day when continually shuffled back racing inside. I think he can rebound here and he’s my top selection. I prefer him to main rival Malibu Pro, who finished ahead of him going 7 furlongs on Sepember 6. This horse has been in excellent form lately for A. C. Avila and may have a pace advantage over his main rival. However, I think we’ve seen the best he has to offer in recent starts, and I’m expecting Tiz He the One to take a step forward. Some may also consider horses like Mad Munnys and Super Dude, but each of them has more questions to answer. Mad Munnys has rarely gone this far, so the mile may be a stretch for him even though he appears to be in career-best form right now. Super Dude is the other horse for Linda Rice, who also is racing first off the claim. However, his recent form has soured and Rice’s go-to rider Lezcano lands on Tiz He the One.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,6 with ALL

RACE 9: LARCENY (#9)
The scratch of Seven Is Heaven makes this race a little easier to handicap, since that favorite was such a wild card in this field. Among the remaining short prices, the most reliable option may be Beach Front. This 4-year-old came into solid form upon returning from the layoff this summer, and he’s maintained his edge since moving into the Rob Atras barn. He was facing a tougher field two back, but he ran well when back in for the $16,000 tag last time, finishing third in a paceless race. He’s not always the quickest away from the gate, so he needs a little racing luck, but he figures to be right there at the end. I prefer him to a horse like Dangerous Edge, who could also attract support. Yet he, too, lacks tactical speed and Mike Maker doesn’t have the greatest stats off the claim in dirt sprints. I want to get a little more creative, so I’m going with Larceny. This gelding should be a square price given his trainer’s low profile, but his recent efforts are just as strong as those of the two aforementioned runners. He earned a competitive 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure at this level two back when finishing third behind a pair of superior rivals in Fevola and No Lime. He took some money off that effort when he returned in his most recent start but had the misfortune of running into the class dropper Road to Meath. Some will be deterred by that large margin of defeat, but he’s not meeting any Chad Brown monsters today. Furthermore, he has the tactical speed to get to the front in a race that, for such a large field, lacks much early pace.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,5,7,8