by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 8 - 3 - 11 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 3 - 8 - 5 - 10
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 3 - 2
RACE 1: TALESPIN (#6)
Champagne Chills crossed the wire first in the slop at Saratoga, but was disqualified for drifting out in the lane. He was intended for turf that day, but it’s no surprise to see his connections change course and target dirt races after such an effort. Yet it remains to be seen if he can be as effective over a fast track. He was outdueled by Freudian Sip over a dry strip last time and had nothing to offer late. Patrick Reynolds is 7 for 42 (17%, $2.14 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years, so perhaps he’ll improve. Freudian Sip has gotten run down in the stretch in each of his last two starts, but he’s nevertheless earned speed figures that might be good enough to win at this level. He got pretty leg-weary last time after dueling with Apex Predator and was nearly vulnerable to Talespin in the late stages. With an extra half-furlong to work with and that rival back in here, I believe Talespin will be an even bigger threat this time. If you isolate Talespin’s fast dirt races, his form actually looks a lot more encouraging. He ran the best race of his career off the claim for Gary Sciacca last time, hitting his best stride in the final quarter after sitting off that early duel. Given the flaws that we’ve seen in his main rivals, I believe he’s just more trustworthy and he may be the best price of the trio.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,3,5
RACE 2: VIP NATION (#8)
First Appeal figures to attract support off her troubled trip last time. She was saving ground early and seemingly sitting in a good spot, but Javier Castellano was unable to work his way to the outside at the top of the stretch and she wound up getting trapped in behind some tiring runners, losing all momentum. While it’s unclear if she would have won that day, it’s probably fair to say that she would have been no worse than second with a clean trip. However, now she has to stretch out to 7 furlongs, and I believe she’s best going a little shorter than that. Furthermore, there is no pace for her to close into, whereas last time she got a contested pace up front. Hollywood Cat also figures to be a short price for Jason Servis. She was the major disappointment in that September 28 affair, as she got bet like the public knew she was live, yet she put forth a dull effort to be fourth. She’s handled longer distances in the past, but she really woke up going shorter distances for Servis this summer. I’m pretty skeptical of her. My top pick is the likely speed Vip Nation. The Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, with this mare likely to share the lead with Hollywood Cat. However, with Vip Nation getting an aggressive rider like Kendrick Carmouche, I would tend to think that the Bruce Levine trainee will have the early lead to herself. I think that situation makes her pretty dangerous. She wasn’t successful going this distance three back, but she encountered other speed that day. She showed how dangerous she can bee when she’s allowed a clear lead in a couple of starts this season, earning speed figures that would make her very formidable against this bunch.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,11
Trifecta: 8 with 3,11 with 1,3,5,6,11
RACE 6: SO GRACIOUS (#4)
Smack and Kelleycanrun figure to vie for favoritism in this spot despite the fact that both are trying new distance for the first time. Smack will be attempting to stretch out slightly after finishing third going 6 furlongs last time, whereas Kelleycanrun will be turning back to a sprint after running third in a route in her prior start. I slightly prefer Kelleycanrun, who has probably been facing marginally tougher company. The winner of her last race, Shelter Island, looks like a promising debut winner for Chad Brown and runner-up Balon Rose has also proven her quality. While Kelleycanrun did excel in turf routes, she had started out in a sprint on dirt for Barclay Tagg and actually didn’t run terribly, so this distance may really suit her. I’m more concerned about Smack stretching out. She hasn’t been the strongest finisher in her races, and I thought she came up pretty empty last time after stalking a slow pace in a race that was wired on the front end. There are also some others to consider who figure to be more enticing prices. Wajeeha is another Chad Brown firster who seems dangerous. She’s certainly bred for this surface since her dam is a three-quarter sister to Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up Aragorn. She’ll be on my tickets, but my top pick is So Gracious. This filly probably didn’t want to go two turns last time, yet she also got a terrible trip in that race, as she was shuffled back after a tangled beginning and was always out of position. Her prior start going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf was pretty encouraging as she finished just behind Tan and Tight, the same horse who beat Smack last time. So Gracious has handled 7 furlongs on dirt, so the distance is no concern, and she has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7
RACE 7: DARK STORM (#4)
Mubarmaj is going to a heavy favorite in this race as he attempts to pair up victories for Chad Brown. He clearly ran well in his debut when closing behind the undefeated En Wye Cee and subsequent impressive maiden winner Free Enterprise. Bet down to be the even-money in his next start, Mubarmaj ran well to break his maiden, but I’m a bit skeptical if he can repeat that flashy 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The main track at Belmont was fairly biased towards inside runners early in this meet and that was certainly the case on September 12 when a number of horses riding the rail appeared to have an advantage. I think being inside definitely helped Mubarmaj that day, though I wouldn’t go so far as to suggest that he isn’t still the most likely winner in this spot. However, this barn tends to get overbet in these spots. There are two other major players in this race who shouldn’t be ignored. Gio d’Oro did well to overcome an off-the-pace trip last time considering that he’s been best as a front-runner in the past. He’s dangerous once again, but I’m going to take a shot with the other main player Dark Storm. This gelding rebounded from a poor effort in May to impressively break his maiden at Saratoga. His form was better than it appeared coming into that last race, so it wasn’t a major surprise that he stepped forward again. That said, he was traveled extremely well and won with ease over some seasoned older rivals. He steps up in class again, but I think he’s heading in the right direction and will offer better value than the favorite.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 5 with 1,2,3
RACE 8: GLORIOUS EMPIRE (#2)
Catholic Boy is likely to be the favorite here despite the fact that he hasn’t raced since the Suburban in early July. This was not a planned layoff, as he has missed multiple targets along the way. Jonathan Thomas reportedly has him in better condition now, but it still remains to be seen if he can translate that preparation into a top effort. In retrospect, he didn’t run badly at all in the Suburban despite losing as the favorite. However, Catholic Boy’s turf performances are another matter. While he ran well in his match-ups with Analyze It last season, his return effort in the Dixie didn’t necessarily suggest that he had moved forward at all. Essentially, he’s going to be the favorite in this race based on the perception that he can improve on turf, rather than how fast he actually has run on turf. Lucullan, the likely second choice, just looks more trustworthy. He returned from a lengthy layoff this summer and didn’t take long to shake off the rust. He picked up a stakes win at Saratoga, and arguably ran the best race of his career when third last time in the Woodbine Mile. This 9-furlong distance should be more suitable for him and his versatile running style should allow him to work out a favorable trip. I believe he’s the horse to beat, but I’m taking a shot with Glorious Empire. This 8-year-old is coming back on relatively short rest after an encouraging return at Laurel last time. While he only beat one horse home, he did well to overcome taxing pace scenario, putting away the other speed before getting overhauled late. The 1 1/8 miles of this race is far more suitable for him, and he’s drawn perfectly right outside of his main pace rival Dr. Edgar. If he can get back to top form with that start under his belt, he’s a serious threat.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 3,7 with ALL