by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 9 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 8 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 9 - 8
Race 9: 2 - 6 - 7 - 12
Race 10: 2 - 9 - 1
RACE 4: GENTLE ANNIE (#8)
This race features the rematch of Zecha and Tequila Sunday, who finished a head apart when they last met on Sep. 19. Zecha arguably ran the better race that day, as she set a contested pace and repelled multiple challenges before just succumbing to a closer in the final strides. Tequila Sunday looked like a winner turning for home, but she did her usual act, and just hung in the final eighth of a mile. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help to focus her, but I finally have to divorce myself from this filly. Zecha is the most likely winner, but she’s going to be a short price this time, and I think she faces some legitimate rivals. One of those is Big Expense, but I worry about the 4-month layoff into this race. I’m instead going to take a shot with Gentle Annie. At first glance, she looks inferior to the aforementioned runners, but I think there’s a strong case to be made for this filly. She ran a couple of competitive speed figures back in the early summer behind superior rivals like Shanghai Glory and Reata’s Reward. I can excuse her sloppy track effort on July 27, and her two most recent efforts are actually decent. She was hindered by a wide trip on Aug. 20 where she closed well to nearly get up for third. Then last time she ran a race that could certainly beat this field. Seven furlongs is probably too far for her, yet she hung in gamely to only lose to Thirsty Gal by a couple of lengths, and that filly would almost certainly be favored in this race.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,7
RACE 5: PERFECT KIND (#4)
I’ve been a fan of Perfect Kind, and I think this filly finds herself in an ideal situation today. She got a fast pace to close into in her debut at Saratoga, but she dropped far back and was making an impressive late rally through the lane despite appearing hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch. She showed plenty of ability on that occasion and was justifiably made a heavy favorite in her second start at Kentucky Downs. While it was disappointing that she lost, I thought she ran well within the context of that race, as Jose Ortiz may have sent her for home a bit too soon. She opened up a large lead with a quarter-mile to go and just got leg weary in the final furlong. I think she’s going to benefit from that race. Furthermore, she should be able to work out an ideal trip setting the pace over a course that has been strongly favoring inside runners. Chad Brown once again has a pair of entrants in this second division of the earlier maiden race. Joe Allen’s homebred Peaceful Feeling makes her debut after shipping up from Monmouth, and she is certainly bred to have turf ability. Her dam was a turf-stakes winner in France who is a half-sister to Danceland, who is stakes-placed on turf for these same connections. I wouldn’t be surprised if she has some ability, but I actually prefer her more-experienced stablemate. Multi Strategy was meant for turf in her debut and didn’t run that badly when it got rained off. She got onto the surface for which she was intended last time, and I think she ran much better than her running line suggests. That race got a very slow speed figure, but I’m somewhat skeptical that the race was as poor as that number suggests. Multi Strategy appeared to be struggling with the conditions around the far turn and into the stretch, looking like she was going to be uncompetitive. However, once Tyler Gaffalione really set her down in the final three-sixteenths of a mile, she came with a strong rally and was moving best of all late. I think she will appreciate a firmer course on Monday, and I believe she’s the biggest threat to my top selection.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8,9
RACE 8: PEGASUS RED (#1)
Perhaps I’m making this race too complicated by picking against Charming Indy, but something about this drop in class just doesn’t sit well with me. This gelding has been competitive against tougher company very recently and was still capable of running speed figures that would make him a major player at the $25,000 level, or in protected spots at Finger Lakes, where Chris Englehart runs many of his cheaper horses. So why are they suddenly trying to pass him off to another barn for $12,500? He may win if he runs his typical race, but I’m a little skeptical. Looking beyond him, this race is wide open, and many of the other short prices don’t appeal to me. Proud Zip’s recent form is dubious, and Marriage Fever appeared to benefit from a wet track last time. Therefore, I want to get a bit more creative. I’m taking a shot with Pegasus Red on the stretch-out. This gelding went off form when initially claimed by A. C. Avila, but he’s since gotten things back on track since getting a freshening over the summer. He earned a competitive speed figure two back and then had no real chance last time when he actually closed decently in a tougher spot that was dominated by the front-runner. Some may be concerned about the stretch-out in distance, but I think you can make an argument that his one-mile races are actually some of his best performances. This horse has never been the type that loves to win races, but I think he’s going to fly under the radar in this spot and he’s a top contender if he steps forward at all on the stretch-out.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,8,9
RACE 9: LONELY ROAD (#2)
Entirely is the horse to beat as she cuts back in distance for Jonathan Thomas after winning a stakes at Gulfstream last time. The filly who finished just behind her that day, A Bit Special, is pretty talented, and Entirely ran well to hold her off after making a wide, premature move to the lead. This filly has been very impressive in both of her turf starts, and I think she is a very deserving favorite in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into, but Javier Castellano is going to have to work out a trip for her. As I’ve said many times over the past several days, the turf courses are favoring horses with rail positions, so I wouldn’t want to see her making another wide sweep around the field. Beyond her, I think this race is wide-open. Monette is somewhat interesting as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, but her wide draw is a concern. Wesley Ward’s Egoli was impressive in her debut, but she gets a significant class test in this race. I’m using them, but I want to take a shot with longshot Lonely Road in her turf debut. I’ve been waiting for this filly to switch surfaces ever since she was unveiled this spring. She won a weak maiden race at Belmont two back, at least confirming that she has some speed. Christophe Clement is getting ambitious for this grass debut, but she’s bred to love the ground since her dam was a pretty talented turf horse. David Cohen has done a great job of saving ground on the turf recently, so she figures to work out a good trip. Another filly that figures to go off at a big price that I want to throw into the mix is Questionoftheday. She's yet to run a particularly fast race on the dirt, but this daughter of The Factor is a half-sister to 5 turf winners, so she has a right to improve significantly with this surface switch.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,6,7
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,12