by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 1 - 12
Race 3: 3 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 9 - 13 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 1 - 9
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 1/1A - 8
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 5 - 10
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 9 - 5 - 10 - 8
RACE 8: VALUE PROPOSITION (#4)
Among those with experience, Downside Risk is the horse to beat. However, this gelding doesn’t make things easy on himself by breaking slowly in his races. He was off about two lengths behind the field in his debut and didn’t fare much better from the gate last time. He ran well in both starts but has been one-paced in the final furlong, probably because he exerted himself to compensate for his slow breaks. I’m definitely using him, but I think he and all the rest should fear the Chad Brown first-time starter drawn one stall inside of him. Brown has done quite well with his overseas auction acquisitions from this crop of 3-year-olds (Newspaperofrecord, Digital Age, Demarchelier, etc.), and Value Proposition may be another star in the making. This son of the great sire Dansili was purchased for $556,000 at the 2017 Tattersalls sale, along with those aforementioned runners. His dam was a listed stakes winner in England and has produced Group 1 Prix de l’Opera winner Speedy Boarding ($746,000). This British-bred colt has been training like a serious racehorse down at Palm Meadows, outworking older stakes horse Call Provision and matching strides with Digital Age in recent drills. I’m not trying to beat this one. The other horse I would use prominently is Brown’s second stringer, Hizaam. I thought this horse ran better than it seems in his dirt debut, as he reacted badly to the kickback early on but was finishing with some interest late. This son of Bernardini has a classy female family, as his dam is a half-sister to 3-year-old filly champion Untapable as well as Grade 1 turfer Paddy O’Prado. Turf may help, but he would be my top pick if this race were to come off the turf.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7,10
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,5,7,9,10
RACE 9: ABIDING STAR (#1)
All of the short prices in this Elusive Quality have some questions to answer. Krampus is likely to go off the slight favorite off his Grade 3 victory in the Canadian Turf two back. I wouldn’t be too deterred by his loss in the Appleton last time since he got the wrong trip that day, rating too far off a slow pace. However, now he will cut back to a one-turn turf sprint, something he has never tried. I’m certainly using him, but I can’t pick him as the favorite. Therapist has the opposite profile. He clearly handles sprint distances on turf, yet it’s unclear how he stacks up against this group from a class perspective. His speed figures have plateaued since early in his 3-year-old season, but part of the reason for that may be that his connections tried some difficult two-turn stakes. I won’t be shocked if he wins since this is what he wants to do, but I get the sense that others may have more natural ability. Emmaus is a logical player as he makes his first start in this country. He excelled over seven furlongs in Europe, winning a couple of listed stakes races last year. His Timeform Ratings stack up well against this field, and he appears to handle a variety of turf conditions. I’m certainly using him, but my top pick is Abiding Star at a more enticing price. This gelding is not the most consistent sort, but I think he fits the conditions of this race very well. The Pace Projector is predicting that he’s quick enough to make the lead, and he does his best racing from that position. He had to work too hard to make the front from his outside draw in the El Prado last time, carving out unreasonably fast fractions. He should appreciate the return to Belmont Park, where he has run some of his best turf races. However, rain in the forecast ahead of Saturday could compromise his chances since he prefers firm ground.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,5,6
RACE 10: BUSS THE BELL (#9)
I suppose Bourbon Did It is the horse to beat as he drops to the bottom level for his second start against winners. If he runs back to his maiden victory on Feb. 1, he will probably beat this field. He defeated a solid rival in Deputy Flag that day, and the speed figure, which is superior to those earned by others in this field, seems legitimate. The problem is that none of his other performances makes him particularly appealing. His main rival may be Curlin Creek, who makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. It’s not a good sign that she was unable to improve this horse last time out, and the subsequent class drop is another negative indicator. Anyone considering him at a short price may want to give a serious look to longshot Buss the Bell. His 1-for-32 lifetime record will probably scare off most bettors. However, he actually ran a better race than Curlin Creek last time. He battled between two faster horses in the early going and held on well once passed in the lane. His 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort is tied for the best last-out number in the field. I like the slight turnback to six furlongs, and I’m pleased to see the rider switch to Samuel Camacho, who has been riding very well this spring.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,8,10